Antepost betting – why and how.

I thought that Northern Monkey’s review of March, which was sent out to members a couple of weeks ago (obviously!), made for fascinating reading.

The official record for the service at the Cheltenham Festival was a loss of -3.88 points, but I felt that Wayne was being extremely hard on himself recording these figures.  My Northern Monkey Cheltenham gave me a profit of just over 7 points!

I was fortunate to miss a couple of antepost bets that turned out to be losers but what really helped me was by being careful as to where I struck my bets.  For day to day betting, I don’t necessarily take the best odds on offer in the market.  I always try to ensure I take the prices that I know Wayne will use for his official records as a minimum – ie. the lowest quoted price in the email, but taking standout prices is, I have learnt, one of the fast routes to account closures.

When it comes to antepost betting however, I will always take the best price and/or terms available.  No Runner No Bet (NRNB) terms are a punting Godsend and I will always choose a bookmaker offering this concession over one that is not.  This saved me at least a couple of points at Cheltenham on horses that Wayne recorded as losers because he hadn’t specifically advised his members to take the NRNB terms.

My rationale for taking standout prices and the best available terms when betting antepost is that this form of betting carries plenty of dangers as it is, so squeezing the very last drop of value out of every single bet placed is common sense as far as I am concerned.  You’d also like to think that as you can really only bet antepost on the biggest races, liquidity is always going to be strong and therefore betting patterns are likely to come under less scrutiny from the bookmaking bean counters.  I have no idea if this is the case, but there’s a logic to the theory, eh?

Wayne has indicated that he may not go in quite so heavy with the antepost bets next season, but I’ll be following any he does advise in with a strong level of confidence, despite the fact that the latest batch of antepost bets – for the Grand National at Aintree and across various races across the All Weather Championship card at Lingfield on Good Friday – failing to pay off.  Ultimately, antepost betting represents a chance to lock in some exceptional value, albeit with risks attached.  And we know that if we can do that consistently, we’re going to make money.

Betting from Saturday April 1st to Saturday April 15th

In short, it’s been a horrible start to the month.  Only three of the eight services in the portfolio have produced any sort of profit, and only one – Racing Service A – providing a significant level in straight cash terms.

Talking of Racing Service A, the end of term report was sent out to members last week, and very interesting reading it made too.  It’s not been a vintage season for the service, but as ever, A. is thinking of ways he can improve the experience for those following, with an emphasis on being able to get on at decent prices.  I’ll go into it in a bit more detail next time, but in the meantime the Racing Service A season signed off with a fine 25/1 winner on the first day of the Aintree meeting which was a most welcome winner bearing in mind how things are going elsewhere.

By far the highest turnover in April to date has come from Northern Monkey, and unfortunately so has by far the biggest level of loss.  Let’s hope normal service is resumed.

After last month’s heroics, Pinpoint Golf has yet to get it together in April, with The Masters providing no return at all from the week’s bets.

Chasemaster has been on a shocking run of form, but hopefully a decent winner late last week signify an imminent return to form, and it’s a similar story with Racing Service B.

Let’s see what this week brings.

Chasemaster: Staked 16.5pts, -8.7pts.

Jason James: Staked 61.5pts, +4.25pts.

Morning Value Service (Lite): Staked 26pts, -2.66pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 49.5pts, -19.34pts.

Racing Service A: Staked 8pts, +3.25pts.

Racing Service B: Staked 42.5pts, -11.7pts.

Football Service 1: Staked 8pts, +1.43pts.

Pinpoint Golf: Staked 42pts, -25.5pts.

Total for April: ROI -20.36%, ROC -5.33%.

 

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March Review – the positive impact of diversity.

Without a doubt the last couple of months have proven to be tricky ones for the racing tipsters in the portfolio.  Perhaps the most likely reason for the collective to find consistency of performance so hard to come by is the winter weather ensuring that at many racecourses the ground has become desperate.  Now that Spring is in the process of being sprung, the ground is beginning to dry out and hopefully we’ll see the racing services come into their own.

To be fair, of the six racing tipsters followed, four provided a profit, but with the exception of Racing Service A the level of profit was pretty low.  Throw into the mix a truly horrible month for Jason James Quantum Racing and suddenly the racing part of the portfolio has really struggled.

The value of diversification

No doubt you’ve read elsewhere the importance of ensuring that any investment portfolio carries a certain level of diversification.  A suite of betting services is no different, and how well that point was illustrated through March.

Whilst the horse racing tipsters struggled, Pinpoint Golf had an absolute stormer.  The profits generated by this service alone meant that March as a whole provided a good level of bank growth.  Of course there will be times when all sports bet on will lose through a month, just as there will be times when all produce a strong profit, but by introducing a level of diversification into the portfolio we are giving ourselves the best chance of avoiding such sharp ups and downs.

March’s Figures
 The total figures for March’s betting are: ROI 13.12%, ROC 6.6%

As mentioned, Pinpoint Golf excelled through March.  Two big winners in one week generated a huge profit and the weeks around this added to the bank too.  The level of bank growth has been massive and whilst all feels good right now, I am mentally bracing myself for what are sure to be more barren times ahead.  Simply, this rate of return cannot be maintained – there has to be a correction.  Let’s see what April brings.  Of course, The Masters is just around the corner.  It would add to the excitement watching the final round next Sunday evening if we have one or two in contention.  ROI 86.4%, ROC 67.5% (2017: ROI 34.58%, ROC 72.09%).

The one horse racing service to excel through March was Racing Service A, whose season has now come to an end.  It will tip through the three days of the Aintree Festival next week, and I always add the performance there to the official figures, so we’re not quite done with RSA just yet.  The 2016/17 season certainly hasn’t been a vintage one compared to those that came before, and it will be interesting when the tipster releases his end of term report.  I know he is already planning ahead for how exactly he is going to approach the 2017/18 season, and this I’m sure will make for interesting reading.  ROI 45.91%, ROC 9.12% (2017: ROI 23.75%, ROC 11.37%).

It feels like the Football Service 1 season has been a quiet one through 2016/17.  I need to check my bet number and compare it to the turnover generated over previous systems before I say that this is definitely the case.  March wasn’t a bad month at all, although the relatively low number of picks means that it is always going to be difficult to generate too much by way of bank growth.  ROI 10.73%, ROC 3.22% (2017: ROI 16.9%, ROC 10.48%).

Despite some decent enough winners, Northern Monkey didn’t quite catch the breaks over the Cheltenham Festival.  Having built up an impressive antepost portfolio, and having secured long odds on one or two horses that went off at very short odds on the day, it could so easily have delivered much larger profits than it did.  ROI 2.88%, ROC 3% (2017: ROI 8.04%, ROC 18.77%).

I was ultimately left a little disappointed with Morning Value LITE this month.  At one point it looked as if March was going to be extremely rewarding, but a poor last week put paid to that.  Still, it’s rolling along to a decent ROI through 2017 so far, so no real complaints.  ROI 4.55%, ROC 2.45% (2017: ROI 10.3%, ROC 13.91%).

The main man at Chasemaster went off on his jollies to Madeira last week.  Let’s hope the sun and warmth have a rejuvenating effect as 2017 hasn’t yet delivered the goods.  I’m sure it will, and a bit of profit through March will hopefully be a precursor to a strong run of form.  ROI 9.95%, ROC 1.99% (2017: ROI -14.27%, ROC -10.7%).

It looked as if Racing Service B’s month was going to prove an expensive one, and then he pulled out three winners from four bets out of his magic bag of tricks on the 31st at odds of 4/1, 5/1 and 8/1 to help turn things around.  The month still ended in the red, but to a much lesser extent than had looked likely.  ROI -9.95%, ROC 3.9% (2017: ROI 0.78%, ROC 0.99%).

And finally, it was, as previously mentioned, a month to forget for Jason James.  There are times when things can get a little demoralizing for a tipster, and I would suggest this might be one such for followers of this service.  At the end of last month, 2017 had already offered up bank growth of over a third.  At the end of this month, it’s back down to less than 5%.  ROI -49.83%, ROC -30.52% (2017: ROI 2.47%, ROC 4.63%).

Figures for 2017 to date: ROI 11.3%, ROC 15.19%.

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Seeing is believing.

None of my racing tipsters have enjoyed a good week.  The football system I follow drew a blank.  And yet the portfolio as a whole generated a really strong profit thanks entirely to the Pinpoint Golf service.

Two superb winners last weekend at 50/1 and 100/1 meant that I was left congratulating myself on my decision to finally bite the betting bullet and follow a golf tipster this year.  It had taken some soul searching and something of a leap into the psychological unknown to do so.

I don’t like losing runs you see.  And yes, I know they’re part of the game, but there are losing runs and there are losing runs.  The sort of drawdowns you’re likely to experience following a golf tipster can frequently be long, drawn out affairs.  They can really test your punting mettle, placing bets week in and week out at long prices, knowing that it can be a very long time between drinks at the well of profit.

Faith takes time to develop

This is why I have, until this year, shied away from adding a golf betting service to my portfolio.  But then I thought I should man-up.  Golf would provide the portfolio with important diversity and if continuing it’s level of performance, Pinpoint Golf would generate strong profits.

The thing is though, no matter how much you tell yourself that something is so, it’s not until you live through and experience the good times as well as bad that you develop some faith in the tipster you’re following.  This is a lesson well worth remembering when you’re setting out.  Sure, you can read about losing runs and the best way of dealing with them.  You can try to convince yourself that the tipster you have recently joined has been through losing runs before and the one you’re currently experiencing is nothing out of the ordinary, but it’s not until you’ve come out the other side and have bagged some really good profit do you truly start to believe in a service.  The trick of course, is to keep doing what you need to be doing until that happens.

The golf brings home the bacon

So what about this week’s betting?

It’s been a strange old week, truth be told.  Six of the eight services proved unprofitable to follow, and yet it’s been a week that generated bank growth of 3.88%!

The profit all came from Pinpoint Golf, which had a fantastic weekend.  It’s the first time I’ve really had a massive win on the golf.  I’ve tried to mentally prepare myself for following a golf tipster, drumming into my subconscious and conscious that drawdowns can grow deeper and deeper over a long period of time but then we should see them relieved by the occasional very big win.  Trouble is, like with anything to do with betting I find, you can tell yourself this until you’re blue in the face, it’s not until you’ve experienced it that you truly accept that this is the way of things.

So it came as both a thrill and a relief when I discovered that Chris Williams (who is completely unknown to me!) won on the European Seniors Tour at odds of 50/1 carrying a relatively hefty stake.  When this was followed up by Marc Leishman winning on the PGA Tour at 100/1, albeit carrying a much smaller stake, I was in clover.

Enjoyable stuff, this golf betting lark. 🙂

As far as the racing goes, we’re currently in the midst of the “twilight zone”.  Cheltenham is done and dusted, and Aintree is on the horizon, so none of the really decent National Hunt horses are racing.  The flat horses are waiting for the start of the new turf season next week, so there really is pretty uninspiring stuff being served up at present.  Certainly the tipsters are finding it heavy going (the ones I follow, anyway).  Racing Service A only issued bets on Saturday, and Racing Service B and Northern Monkey have both suffered poor weeks.  No-one has excelled.

Chasemaster: Staked 6pts, -3pts.

Jason James: Staked 27pts, -0.8pts.

Morning Value Service LITE: Staked 13pts, -3.917pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 13.5pts, -5.21pts.

Racing Service A: Staked 0.875pts, +0.25pts.

Racing Service B: Staked 18.5pts, -14.1pts.

Pinpoint Golf: Staked 38.75pts, +114.85pts.

Football Service 1: Staked 3pts, -3pts.

Week’s Betting: ROI 36.2%, ROC 3.88%.

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So how was it for you?

Cheltenham, that is…

Superb sport over four days.  There’s something about the place that seems to capture the very essence of National Hunt racing.  The honesty, bravery and sheer guts of both equine and human participants encapsulates what is so thrilling about top level sport; I am always lost in admiration of both.

A couple of observations though, before I talk about the betting.

What is the point of television interviewing the stable lads and lasses?  I mean, what they do is hugely admirable and there is no doubting the sincerity of their love for the animals they care for.  But ultimately, most are too nervous to communicate in anything other than monosyllables, uttered mostly through fits of nervous giggles.  It really doesn’t make for good tv!

And if Ed Chamberlain says “Brilliant!” one more time in response to the most basic of remarks from Ruby Walsh or some owner, I’m going to throw my form book through the telly!

There was one element to the tv coverage that made me stop and think though.  Matt Chapman was in the betting ring talking to the representative from Starsports Bookmakers just before Altior’s race.  The guy told Chapman that a credit customer had had a £400k bet to win £100k.

Now, I cannot see how anyone could see value in Altior’s pre-race odds (and look how Douvan failed to land similar odds the following day) so I can only assume it wasn’t a professional gambler who placed this bet.  More likely someone to whom losing such an amount wouldn’t be the end of the world.  In which case, why did they strike the bet at all?  If losing £400k was (hopefully) manageable, what impact would winning “just” £100k have on this individual?  It strikes me that the risk of losing was perhaps more important (ie. provided the thrill) to this person than the prospect of winning.  The psychology of gambling is a weird old science!

Betting from Sunday 12th March to Saturday 18th March

I had three highlights to my Cheltenham week.

Northern Monkey’s antepost bet on Gold Cup winner Sizing John at 33/1 was one, and what was even more impressive was that he also advised runner-up Minella Rocco each way at the same price, and third-placed Native River too, at 8/1.

Another was Racing Service A‘s 16/1 advised on Bumper winner Fayonagh which won in incredible style.  Whipping around at the start and being left lengths behind the rest of the pack, his amateur jockey kept his cool and somehow managed to roust a winning run that started from around two furlongs out.  Even with half a furlong to go, the likelihood of it winning the race looked slim to say the least, but the beast simply rattled home to get up close to the line.  Thrilling stuff!

The third betting highlight didn’t actually take place at Cheltenham.  What a day Wednesday was for the Morning Value LITE service.  Three bets, three winners, including one – So Celebre – that was advised at 2/1 and won at 5/1.  The beauty of BOG, eh?  I’m enjoying making hay whilst that particular sun shines.

It’s not all been plain sailing though.  The figures for Jason James aren’t pretty…

Chasemaster: Staked 4pts, +3.7pts.

Jason James: Staked 37pts, -32.5pts.

MVS Lite: Staked 17pts, +11.875pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 46pts, +8.14pts.

Racing Service A: Staked 7.187pts, +1.937pts.

Racing Service B: Staked 27pts, +2.25pts.

Pinpoint Golf: Staked 32.75pts, +4.1pts.

Football Service 1: Staked 1pt, +1.69pts.

Week’s betting: ROI 13.91%, ROC 2.49%.

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The Magic of Cheltenham

So the alarm goes off at 7 am, and promptly snoozed.  Two “snoozes” later, at 7.27 am I’m conscious enough to remember that it’s Tuesday and the first day of Cheltenham.  With that thought, I’m able to do a passing impression at least, of a “spring” out of bed!

The mutt is released from her quarters and, tail wagging so hard it goes around in circles, heads straight for the door, knowing that it’s time for a walk.  Down into town I go, mutt in tow, to pick up the Racing Post, milk for hot coffee, and Irish potato cakes – a tradition that provides a nod towards the invading hordes from across the sea that between them will, over the next four days, drink enough Guinness to down the Titanic.

The ‘Morning Line’ (or whatever the ITV equivalent is known as) is set to record on Sky Plus, and after a shower and shave those potato cakes go down rather nicely whilst watching the show (hint: grate some Parmesan over the top – d-bloomin’-licious!).

The Morning Line over, it’s to the RP.  I’m not kidding here, I give it a good smell before opening it.  I’m telling you, it smells different, Cheltenham week.  If you don’t believe me, try it!

First up, it’s Alastair Down’s piece, full of verbosity and a trifle irritating any other week of the year, but this week I find he is a grand writer and racing muse.  It must be something to do with the mood I’m in.  Then, Pricewise, and then the rest.  Got to admit I’m interrupted at regular intervals as my tipster’s bets come through.  The thoughts from of the tipster behind Racing Service A are always worth a very careful read, particularly so this week.  All this must take me a good two hours or so of reading because the next thing I know it’s lunchtime.

A bacon and egg sarnie (brown sauce, of course) and a strong cuppa…and it’s time to switch the racing on.  From this point up to the last race of the day – the last two races watched on the laptop on Racing UK – I shall not move from the telly except to make a cuppa and grab a biscuit or three about halfway through.  The kids come in from school with barely an acknowledgement, and they can’t believe their luck that Dad’s too preoccupied to nag them about getting their homework done.

After the last, it’s off out to get some fresh air, walk through the fields with the dog and contemplate the day’s gains or losses.  As I get back home, there’s a big smile on the old boat race as I think that I’m going to do it all again tomorrow.

Ah yes.  The magic of Cheltenham.

Betting from Wednesday 1st March to Saturday 12th March

Not the brightest of starts to the month, but losses are marginal.  Here’s hoping Cheltenham brings a few good priced winners.  I’ve quite the antepost Northern Monkey portfolio to look forward to, and no doubt Racing Service A and Racing Service B will be busy at the Festival too.

Chasemaster: Staked 10pts, +1.291pts.

Jason James: Staked 40.5pts, -22.5pts.

Morning Value Service (Lite): Staked 20pts, -1.5pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 14pts, +0.338pts.

Racing Service A: Staked 1.625pts, +2.625pts.

Racing Service B: Staked 23.5pts, -10.667pts.

Football Service 1: Staked 9pts, +2.92pts.

Pinpoint Golf: Staked 38pts, -2.2pts.

March’s performance to date: ROI -5.33%, ROC -0.8%.

 

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February Review – a month of consolidation.

2017 got off to a cracking start. January, if you remember, kicked up bank growth of 7.42% and so I went into February with the primary ambition of not giving a great big chunk of it back.  In such context, February adding just a little to the coffers is viewed as a success.  There is nothing I find more galling than a really good month being followed immediately by a really bad one, and happily I can say I’ve managed to avoid that psychologically difficult to handle scenario on this occasion.

February’s Figures

The total figures for February’s betting are: ROI 1.83%, ROC 1.17%.

February proved a tricky time for the racing tipsters, with only two of the six generating a profit.  This is likely down to desperate ground conditions being the norm, which is never an easy factor to counter.

Jason James has been both the outstanding performer in February, and through 2017 to date.  No heavy going concerns for him!  His is a service that I’m watching develop with a keen interest.  I’m a firm believer that the best tipsters evolve over time, honing their skills as they go.  This doesn’t necessarily mean they become better at identifying value – that fundamental skill has to underlie everything they do right from the start.  But what they do often improve is the way they run their service.  Jason’s introduction of market comments to his commentary and the setting of a minimum price for each of his selections elevates his service in terms of user friendliness.  He is to be wholeheartedly applauded for making this move, as he is for his performance figures attained so far this year.  ROI 39.22%, ROC 22.45% (2017: ROI 27.9%, ROC 35.16%).

As you may or may not recall, I’m a relative newbie to golf betting.  I remember backing Nick Faldo (off my own bat…or club, perhaps?) when he famously overhauled Greg Norman over the final round in the Masters many years ago, but apart from dabbling in the sport a bit when following ClubGOWI, I’ve not ever really got into golf as a serious betting medium.  So it has been enjoyable to watch Pinpoint Golf steadily accumulate some decent profit this month.  I get the distinct feeling that golf betting can be acutely frustrating at times; near misses at huge odds, and inevitably long losing runs.  But then I’m hoping this will be countered somewhat by grabbing some pretty big and exciting returns at times too.  Bring it on.  ROI 14.62%, ROC 11.99% (2017: ROI 3.52%, ROC 4.59%).

The epitome of steadiness over the past two months has been the Morning Value LITE offering from the SBC.  This is a service that is likely to only ever really warrant comment after a particularly good winning run or a sharp, shocking losing spell, which really ought not to be the case.  There is a vital role within any betting portfolio for a service whose returns are best described as steady as opposed to spectacular.  Many have tried to run a service that fulfils such a function and failed miserably.  MVS LITE has stood the test of time, and praise to it for that.  ROI 8.7%, ROC 3.83% (2017: ROI 14.14%, ROC 11.46%).

The last service to make a profit, albeit a nominal one only this month, is Football Service 1.  February has been a particularly slow month with only 7 bets in total.  This is due mainly to the FA Cup, I think, with fixtures for the once-wonderful and now ruined knock-out competition impinging significantly on the league schedule.  I’m expecting increased action through March.  ROI 0.57%, ROC 0.08% (2017: ROI 20.17%, 7.26%).

Suffering just a tiny loss through February was Racing Service B.  Not much to write here, expect I’m still expecting the tipster to snap into some sort of sustained good form sooner rather than later.  ROI -2.59%, ROC -0.9% (2017: ROI 5.62%, ROC 4.91%).

Like Football Investor, Racing Service A has had a quiet time of it, with only 7 points staked through the month.  A. is examining ways of possibly increasing turnover in the future via his forum and I wish him well in his quest.  He is acutely aware of the difficulties for his members of securing prices and staying beyond the ever watchful gaze of the bookmakers’ overworked “Account Closure” departments when tipping into weak, early/midweek betting markets.  Although this month has proved to be a little disappointing, Cheltenham is just around the corner, and this is a track where historically he has enjoyed some spectacular successes.  ROI -35.71%, ROC -5% (2017: ROI 8.04%, ROC 2.25%).

Last month’s hero Northern Monkey was brought down to earth a little through February.  This has been partly due to ongoing attempts to secure some decent stakes rolling onto Cheltenham Festival fancies by way of multiple bets.  Like last year, Wayne now has considerable capital invested in the Festival, and I approach Cheltenham with a mixture of excitement and trepidation.  Last year, Wayne’s strategy paid off handsomely, but with 36 points of an 80 point bank already laid down with the bookies, it’s “squeaky bum” time.  Roll on next Tuesday – let the fun and games begin!  ROI -20.66%, ROC -12.56% (2017: ROI 12.22%, ROC 15.77%).

Finally this month, I have to report a bit of a shocker for Chasemaster.  Roll on March.  I’m sure things will get better for F, P, and the team!  ROI -47.41%, ROC -13.75% (2017: ROI -23.09%, ROC -12.7%).

So, figures for 2017 ytd are: ROI 10.21%, ROC 8.59%.

March, to a large extent, revolves around Cheltenham.  Let’s hope the Festival is kind to us.

Until next week…

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  • Exclusive extra analysis on my betting portfolio and ongoing betting journey;
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What it must take to be a winning tipster

It’s been a good week for Northern Monkey.  It is now the service I have followed for the longest period of time and it was nice to see Wayne’s service picking up the Best Racing Tipster and Best Overall Tipster gongs in the 2017 SBC Tipping and Betting awards.  When you consider that Northern Monkey is picking up each of these prizes for the third consecutive year, then we have to acknowledge that here is a tipping service that has made consistency it’s hallmark.

Changing times but excellence maintained

What makes the achievement even more impressive is that, to my mind anyway, the horse racing tipster world is a far more competitive one than that which NMP was born into back in the early stages of 2010.  Over the years Wayne has undoubtedly improved his tipping skills and has developed into the consummate professional.

I do frequently find myself wondering how testing and wearing being a tipster must be, and for purely selfish reasons, I hope Wayne is not too wearied just yet..  I guess stress and strain are each easier to deal with when results are good and you’re picking up prizes, but there must be times when all successful tipsters find the going particularly heavy.

Plenty come, plenty go

The fact is that over the years I have seen so many tipsters come, burn brightly, and then burn out.  That a tipster can remain focused and perhaps most importantly of all, motivated, is one of the hardest skills to perfect.  There’s a natural inclination to believe that what gives a betting expert an edge is simply the ability to identify value betting opportunities, and of course it is.  But just as important is the ability to keep a level head and a consistent approach to exploiting their edge, remaining unaffected by winning spells and losing runs.

All of which must be extremely testing to the tipster’s psychology.  Especially when you bring into the equation that many tipsters have families and full time jobs to contend with too.  They are affected by the things that happen in life just as you and I are, but they operate in an extremely unforgiving and hostile environment.  When they make mistakes, they are ruthlessly exposed – we and they lose cold hard cash.  I’m not too sure I could do it.

Betting from Saturday 18th February to Friday 24th February

Of the six racing tipsters in the portfolio, none showed a profit this last week, and if it wasn’t for a fantastic weekend for Pinpoint Golf, which came pretty close to a 1,000/1 winner, the last week would have been a nightmare.  As it is, it ended up showing a marginal profit which under the circumstances, I’ll gladly take.

Chasemaster simply can’t buy a winner at present although they were few and far between across the board.  The only notable successes were Northern Monkey’s Zac Brown (Lingfield – 10/1) last Saturday and Will Lattimore’s Suyoof (Meydan – 8/1) on Thursday.

Here are the figures for the month to date:

Chasemaster: Staked 23pts, -14.25pts.

Jason James: Staked 101pts, +38.91pts.

MVS (Lite): Staked 42pts, +5.83pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 40.75pts, -5.67pts.

Racing Service A: Staked 6.125pts, -1.625pts.

Racing Service B: Staked 63pts, +0.95pts.

Football Service 1: Staked 7pts, +0.04pts.

Pinpoint Golf: Staked 137.25pts, +19.3pts.

February’s performance to date: ROI 3.78%, ROC 1.38%.

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The Beauty of BOG – make the most of it whilst you can.

Jason James sent an email out to members this week, part of which I found particularly interesting, simply because it addressed something that I have often wondered about.

We all understand about the necessity of finding value if we are to bet profitably, right?  I get that, but what I have more difficulty getting my head around is what price represents value.  I know Racing Tipster A has in the past, pointed out that the horses he finds that are backed in after the on course market opens are highly profitable, and even if taking SP profitability remains strong.  This means that he could tip a horse at say, 10/1, but even if it opens on course at 8s and is backed in further to 6s, the 6s is still worth taking.  Would I take 6s ten minutes after a tip has been issued at 10s?  No, I wouldn’t.

Jason attacked this issue of value very succinctly: “Value to me is in the eye of the beholder a bit like the beauty I see in my missis as I see her as the most beautiful person i have ever seen for one reason or another while other people may see her as just plain pug ugly!”

Value is in the eye of the beholder!  And I guess that those that have an “eye” for value are those that make money.  It is those tipsters that can be accurate in their subjective calculations and estimations that will make us money in the long term.

On another point, I have noticed that I have benefited from the BOG concession with Jason’s tips recently.  The latest winner to get a boost in price from BOG was Suzi’s Connoisseur, tipped up at 6/1 and going off at 9/1 on Tuesday.

The issue of BOG and it’s application to a tipster’s performance record was something at the forefront of my mind after writing a review of a service that you can read in the latest SBC Betting Magazine which was released on Friday.  You can see quite clearly the benefits that having BOG can bring, but as punters who expect to win, I believe that we have to view BOG as something of a bonus and not something we can rely upon in the long term.  With my new set of accounts I’m certainly pleased to have the concession as a temporary part of my armoury, but know it can’t and won’t last.  That said, I am taking every conceivable effort to extend it’s lifespan for as long as possible, spreading bets around bookmakers like you wouldn’t believe.  So far, so good.

Let’s  make BOG hay whilst the sun shines, and if you’re just starting out on your betting adventure, make the most of it whilst you can!

Betting from Saturday February 11th to Friday February 17th

A small step backwards this week.

Jason James continues in fine form, with Saturday netting 13.7 points of profit and Thursday 12.4 points.  Highlight of the week was probably a 2 point win bet (the standard is 1 point) on Outer Space – Chelmsford – 8/1.

It was a second consecutive good week for MVS (Lite) and anyone playing the old doubles system with this service should have made a decent profit over the last few days too.

Nasty losses though for Chasemaster and Pinpoint Golf however, meant the week produced an overall loss – ROI -12.8%, ROC -1.57%.

Here are the figures for the month to date:

Chasemaster: Staked 18pts, -9.25pts.

Jason James: Staked 70pts, +47.41pts.

MVS (Lite): Staked 28pts, +8.33pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 25pts, -3.92pts.

Racing Tipster A: Staked 3.75pts, +0.75pts.

Racing Tipster B: Staked 46pts, 2.05pts.

Pinpoint Golf: Staked 95.25pts, -26.3pts.

Football Service 1: Staked 6pts, +1.04pts.

February’s performance to date: ROI 4.62%, ROC 1.17%.

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Serious investment or playing for kicks?

Do you want to bet to make money, or do you want to simply do it for fun?  In other words, do you really care about what you are betting on as long as you make a profit, or do you only want to put bets into markets you know something about or have a real interest in?

These are really good questions to ask yourself.

The “fun” is in counting up the profit

I have bet on some really “strange” things in my time; Eastern European women’s netball, Hungarian Division 2 football…you name it, I’ve probably bet on it.  Now I do like my footie, but I’m no expert on the Hungarian leagues!  But I really couldn’t have cared a less about this when I placed my bet.  My trust was with a tipster who did know about Hungarian football, and I was placing the bet with the aim of beating the book.

I DO have a strong interest in English Premiership football, but even now, a very small proportion of my bets concern this league.  This is a sport that the bookies are all over.  They take millions of pounds and euros, not to mention yen, yuan and rupees over in Asia, and they therefore pour huge resources into making sure they price up the matches accurately.  To eke out a profit in Premier League football, you really do need to know your stuff.  Creating an edge in these markets is incredibly difficult, and therefore I’d rather be investing my money into markets which are considerably easier to gain an advantage.

So if you don’t like betting on tennis, but you find a tipster with a long-term proven edge in the sport, why would you not follow?  We’re betting simply to make money, aren’t we?

The bottom line is all that counts

The reality is that the bottom line is all that should matter to us.  Yes, of course you must examine the tipster you’re considering following to ensure the practicalities are in line with your own personal circumstances.  Can you get the bets on promptly and secure the right prices?  But if they do, and you can, then whether or not you like the sport you’re betting on really is an irrelevance.

Pre-conceptions are dangerous things.  Pre-conceptions are generated through personal experience.  Just because you find it nearly impossible to identify a horse with four working legs, never mind one that is capable of running fast enough in the conditions to have a chance of winning the race, can’t put you off utilizing the expertise of someone who can.

Let’s face it, an awful lot of people go to work to do jobs they don’t particularly enjoy doing.  But they go anyway, because at the end of the week or month, they get a payslip and money goes into their account.  It’s the same with betting.  Don’t go putting on any blinkers you don’t need to wear.

Betting from February 1st to Friday February 10th

A good start to the month, building on January’s success.

Last Saturday was a spectacular day for Jason James as he nailed a 33/1 winner (Ballythomas – Musselburgh).  The guy’s ROC figures are now at a ridiculously high level for the time he has been tipping commercially.  Extremely impressive stuff.

Elsewhere it has really been a case of solid accumulation.  The only other really notable winner was provided by Racing Service A, again last Saturday, in the shape of Baie Des Iles – 8/1 – Punchestown.  But you know what?  I like solid accumulation. I really do.

Here are the figures for the month:

Chasemaster: Staked 11pts, -2.25pts.

Jason James: Staked 40.5pts, +24.26pts.

Morning Value Service (Lite): Staked 16pts, +2.5pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 13.5pts, -2.55pts.

Racing Service A: Staked 2pts, +2.5pts.

Racing Service B: Staked 22.5pts, +6.6pts.

Football Service 1: Staked 5pts, +2.04pts.

Pinpoint Golf: Staked 29.25pts, +0.75pts)

February’s performance to date: ROI 21.11%, ROC 2.74%.

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  • Exclusive extra analysis on my betting portfolio and ongoing betting journey;
  • The EXACT identities of each of the tipsters I follow to make money betting;
  • Access to all SBC reviews, ratings and recommendations for each tipster;
  • Access to several major discounts/trials on the tipsters I follow;
  • Access to the SBC Tipping Forum and several free profitable tipsters.

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January Review – a good, solid start to 2017

Flippin’ ‘eck!  How quickly does time go by?  It only seems a minute ago since it was Christmas!

So the first month of our betting year is complete, and a very nice, profitable month it has been too.  Of the eight services in the portfolio, only one made a loss, and when this happens progress is always going to be fairly smooth.  That’s how January has felt – smooth.  There were no massive dips in performance, no big drawdowns.  Just an easy path to profit, and I love it when it’s like this.  It makes the game feel easy.

But of course the game is anything but easy.  There will be testing times to come.  It’s not a matter of if, but when.  No point in losing any sleep though.  Let’s just enjoy a good run whilst it lasts.

January’s Figures

The total figures for January’s betting are: ROI 17.61%, ROC 7.42%.

The outstanding performer of the month was undoubtedly Northern Monkey.  Puzzlingly, when I look at the service’s official results, I seem to have staked an extra half a point. Goodness knows where that was!  My return of +22.66 points is 1.57 points greater than Wayne’s record, highlighting again the fair price settlement policy that he employs.  ROI 41.45%, ROC 28.33%.

Jason James year got off to a flying start.  After the first week/ten days, things slowed a little for him, but nevertheless a strong profit was made through the month as a whole.  Without giving away too much, his February has got off to a similarly explosive start, so let’s hope for more of the same through the next few weeks.  Notably introduced a subtly different odds recording policy and any move to make a service more follower friendly is to be admired.  It was this service too, that I benefited most from having new bookmaker accounts to use, with BOG concession included.  My figures of +25.41 points profit are on a different level to Jason’s non-BOG applied official result of +13.64 points, and 1.22 points more than Jason’s figures with BOG applied.  This pleases me immensely!  ROI 18.28%, ROC 12.57%.

The Morning Value (Lite) service is one that can make a profit in what I would describe as a ‘stealthy’ fashion.  Backing at the front end of the market and to level stakes means that there are never any spectacular wins.  So when profit accumulates, it’s done quietly.  There’s a lot to be said for this – it’s easy on the old ticker!  ROI 20.61%, ROC 7.63%.  

January tends to be a relatively quiet month for Racing Service A, lying as it does between the frenzy of Christmas racing in December and the Cheltenham Festival in March.  It is when winter is at it’s darkest and deepest too, with desperate ground conditions often the norm.  Exacerbating the issue is the tipster finding the midweek markets too weak to tip into, which I feel is a constant source of frustration to him.  In an effort to counter a lack of betting turnover a little, he is looking to issue more ‘Top Picks’, ie. horses at shorter prices that he doesn’t feel he can issue as an official tip because of the price, but which he feels have a darned good chance of winning.  I will add these to my official figures moving forwards from this point – their record is outstanding.  Despite the small number of bets, it was a successful month.  ROI 51.79%, ROC 7.25%.

It was a similarly quiet month for the Football Service 1.  Just 11 bets issued, turnover no doubt effected by the third and fourth rounds of the FA Cup reducing the number of league games played.  Still, a good profit returned.  ROI 32.63%, ROC 7.18%.

Back to horse racing and it has been a solid enough start to the year for Racing Service B.  It’s still not reaching the spectacular heights of the past, but a definite return to form this month.  If he can maintain this gathering momentum through February, then I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see a massive month posted in the near future.  Who knows, it could even be this month.  ROI 11.61%, ROC 5.81.

A more or less break even month for Chasemaster.  ROI 4.03%, ROC 1.63%.

And finally, the only bum note for January – Pinpoint Golf.  Not a disastrous month by any means and with the Tours getting into full swing now, there’s a lot of betting action to look forward to.  I am giving serious consideration to incorporating the Top 10 and Top 20 bets that are issued but which don’t go down on the ‘official’ slate.  I can see their value in that they should theoretically cut down the losing runs that are an inevitable part of golf betting, and their historical performance is strong.  It would necessitate a change in bank/staking, so some thought necessary before taking the plunge.  ROI -15.37%, ROC -7.43%.

Until next time.

Rowan Day

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Take Your Betting Up A Notch With The Bet Diary PRO!

If you enjoy reading these free Bet Diary posts, then you can gain access to my more detailed, professional betting blog (Bet Diary Pro) as a Secret Betting Club member.

First introduced in early 2015, the Bet Diary Pro provides even more on the practical realities of following tipsters to make money betting including:

  • Exclusive extra analysis on my betting portfolio and ongoing betting journey;
  • The EXACT identities of each of the tipsters I follow to make money betting;
  • Access to all SBC reviews, ratings and recommendations for each tipster;
  • Access to several major discounts/trials on the tipsters I follow;
  • Access to the SBC Tipping Forum and several free profitable tipsters.

Access to the Bet Diary Pro is available right away with either a Silver, Gold or Platinum Secret Betting Club membership.

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