So how was it for you?

Cheltenham, that is…

Superb sport over four days.  There’s something about the place that seems to capture the very essence of National Hunt racing.  The honesty, bravery and sheer guts of both equine and human participants encapsulates what is so thrilling about top level sport; I am always lost in admiration of both.

A couple of observations though, before I talk about the betting.

What is the point of television interviewing the stable lads and lasses?  I mean, what they do is hugely admirable and there is no doubting the sincerity of their love for the animals they care for.  But ultimately, most are too nervous to communicate in anything other than monosyllables, uttered mostly through fits of nervous giggles.  It really doesn’t make for good tv!

And if Ed Chamberlain says “Brilliant!” one more time in response to the most basic of remarks from Ruby Walsh or some owner, I’m going to throw my form book through the telly!

There was one element to the tv coverage that made me stop and think though.  Matt Chapman was in the betting ring talking to the representative from Starsports Bookmakers just before Altior’s race.  The guy told Chapman that a credit customer had had a £400k bet to win £100k.

Now, I cannot see how anyone could see value in Altior’s pre-race odds (and look how Douvan failed to land similar odds the following day) so I can only assume it wasn’t a professional gambler who placed this bet.  More likely someone to whom losing such an amount wouldn’t be the end of the world.  In which case, why did they strike the bet at all?  If losing £400k was (hopefully) manageable, what impact would winning “just” £100k have on this individual?  It strikes me that the risk of losing was perhaps more important (ie. provided the thrill) to this person than the prospect of winning.  The psychology of gambling is a weird old science!

Betting from Sunday 12th March to Saturday 18th March

I had three highlights to my Cheltenham week.

Northern Monkey’s antepost bet on Gold Cup winner Sizing John at 33/1 was one, and what was even more impressive was that he also advised runner-up Minella Rocco each way at the same price, and third-placed Native River too, at 8/1.

Another was Racing Service A‘s 16/1 advised on Bumper winner Fayonagh which won in incredible style.  Whipping around at the start and being left lengths behind the rest of the pack, his amateur jockey kept his cool and somehow managed to roust a winning run that started from around two furlongs out.  Even with half a furlong to go, the likelihood of it winning the race looked slim to say the least, but the beast simply rattled home to get up close to the line.  Thrilling stuff!

The third betting highlight didn’t actually take place at Cheltenham.  What a day Wednesday was for the Morning Value LITE service.  Three bets, three winners, including one – So Celebre – that was advised at 2/1 and won at 5/1.  The beauty of BOG, eh?  I’m enjoying making hay whilst that particular sun shines.

It’s not all been plain sailing though.  The figures for Jason James aren’t pretty…

Chasemaster: Staked 4pts, +3.7pts.

Jason James: Staked 37pts, -32.5pts.

MVS Lite: Staked 17pts, +11.875pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 46pts, +8.14pts.

Racing Service A: Staked 7.187pts, +1.937pts.

Racing Service B: Staked 27pts, +2.25pts.

Pinpoint Golf: Staked 32.75pts, +4.1pts.

Football Service 1: Staked 1pt, +1.69pts.

Week’s betting: ROI 13.91%, ROC 2.49%.

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The Magic of Cheltenham

So the alarm goes off at 7 am, and promptly snoozed.  Two “snoozes” later, at 7.27 am I’m conscious enough to remember that it’s Tuesday and the first day of Cheltenham.  With that thought, I’m able to do a passing impression at least, of a “spring” out of bed!

The mutt is released from her quarters and, tail wagging so hard it goes around in circles, heads straight for the door, knowing that it’s time for a walk.  Down into town I go, mutt in tow, to pick up the Racing Post, milk for hot coffee, and Irish potato cakes – a tradition that provides a nod towards the invading hordes from across the sea that between them will, over the next four days, drink enough Guinness to down the Titanic.

The ‘Morning Line’ (or whatever the ITV equivalent is known as) is set to record on Sky Plus, and after a shower and shave those potato cakes go down rather nicely whilst watching the show (hint: grate some Parmesan over the top – d-bloomin’-licious!).

The Morning Line over, it’s to the RP.  I’m not kidding here, I give it a good smell before opening it.  I’m telling you, it smells different, Cheltenham week.  If you don’t believe me, try it!

First up, it’s Alastair Down’s piece, full of verbosity and a trifle irritating any other week of the year, but this week I find he is a grand writer and racing muse.  It must be something to do with the mood I’m in.  Then, Pricewise, and then the rest.  Got to admit I’m interrupted at regular intervals as my tipster’s bets come through.  The thoughts from of the tipster behind Racing Service A are always worth a very careful read, particularly so this week.  All this must take me a good two hours or so of reading because the next thing I know it’s lunchtime.

A bacon and egg sarnie (brown sauce, of course) and a strong cuppa…and it’s time to switch the racing on.  From this point up to the last race of the day – the last two races watched on the laptop on Racing UK – I shall not move from the telly except to make a cuppa and grab a biscuit or three about halfway through.  The kids come in from school with barely an acknowledgement, and they can’t believe their luck that Dad’s too preoccupied to nag them about getting their homework done.

After the last, it’s off out to get some fresh air, walk through the fields with the dog and contemplate the day’s gains or losses.  As I get back home, there’s a big smile on the old boat race as I think that I’m going to do it all again tomorrow.

Ah yes.  The magic of Cheltenham.

Betting from Wednesday 1st March to Saturday 12th March

Not the brightest of starts to the month, but losses are marginal.  Here’s hoping Cheltenham brings a few good priced winners.  I’ve quite the antepost Northern Monkey portfolio to look forward to, and no doubt Racing Service A and Racing Service B will be busy at the Festival too.

Chasemaster: Staked 10pts, +1.291pts.

Jason James: Staked 40.5pts, -22.5pts.

Morning Value Service (Lite): Staked 20pts, -1.5pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 14pts, +0.338pts.

Racing Service A: Staked 1.625pts, +2.625pts.

Racing Service B: Staked 23.5pts, -10.667pts.

Football Service 1: Staked 9pts, +2.92pts.

Pinpoint Golf: Staked 38pts, -2.2pts.

March’s performance to date: ROI -5.33%, ROC -0.8%.

 

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February Review – a month of consolidation.

2017 got off to a cracking start. January, if you remember, kicked up bank growth of 7.42% and so I went into February with the primary ambition of not giving a great big chunk of it back.  In such context, February adding just a little to the coffers is viewed as a success.  There is nothing I find more galling than a really good month being followed immediately by a really bad one, and happily I can say I’ve managed to avoid that psychologically difficult to handle scenario on this occasion.

February’s Figures

The total figures for February’s betting are: ROI 1.83%, ROC 1.17%.

February proved a tricky time for the racing tipsters, with only two of the six generating a profit.  This is likely down to desperate ground conditions being the norm, which is never an easy factor to counter.

Jason James has been both the outstanding performer in February, and through 2017 to date.  No heavy going concerns for him!  His is a service that I’m watching develop with a keen interest.  I’m a firm believer that the best tipsters evolve over time, honing their skills as they go.  This doesn’t necessarily mean they become better at identifying value – that fundamental skill has to underlie everything they do right from the start.  But what they do often improve is the way they run their service.  Jason’s introduction of market comments to his commentary and the setting of a minimum price for each of his selections elevates his service in terms of user friendliness.  He is to be wholeheartedly applauded for making this move, as he is for his performance figures attained so far this year.  ROI 39.22%, ROC 22.45% (2017: ROI 27.9%, ROC 35.16%).

As you may or may not recall, I’m a relative newbie to golf betting.  I remember backing Nick Faldo (off my own bat…or club, perhaps?) when he famously overhauled Greg Norman over the final round in the Masters many years ago, but apart from dabbling in the sport a bit when following ClubGOWI, I’ve not ever really got into golf as a serious betting medium.  So it has been enjoyable to watch Pinpoint Golf steadily accumulate some decent profit this month.  I get the distinct feeling that golf betting can be acutely frustrating at times; near misses at huge odds, and inevitably long losing runs.  But then I’m hoping this will be countered somewhat by grabbing some pretty big and exciting returns at times too.  Bring it on.  ROI 14.62%, ROC 11.99% (2017: ROI 3.52%, ROC 4.59%).

The epitome of steadiness over the past two months has been the Morning Value LITE offering from the SBC.  This is a service that is likely to only ever really warrant comment after a particularly good winning run or a sharp, shocking losing spell, which really ought not to be the case.  There is a vital role within any betting portfolio for a service whose returns are best described as steady as opposed to spectacular.  Many have tried to run a service that fulfils such a function and failed miserably.  MVS LITE has stood the test of time, and praise to it for that.  ROI 8.7%, ROC 3.83% (2017: ROI 14.14%, ROC 11.46%).

The last service to make a profit, albeit a nominal one only this month, is Football Service 1.  February has been a particularly slow month with only 7 bets in total.  This is due mainly to the FA Cup, I think, with fixtures for the once-wonderful and now ruined knock-out competition impinging significantly on the league schedule.  I’m expecting increased action through March.  ROI 0.57%, ROC 0.08% (2017: ROI 20.17%, 7.26%).

Suffering just a tiny loss through February was Racing Service B.  Not much to write here, expect I’m still expecting the tipster to snap into some sort of sustained good form sooner rather than later.  ROI -2.59%, ROC -0.9% (2017: ROI 5.62%, ROC 4.91%).

Like Football Investor, Racing Service A has had a quiet time of it, with only 7 points staked through the month.  A. is examining ways of possibly increasing turnover in the future via his forum and I wish him well in his quest.  He is acutely aware of the difficulties for his members of securing prices and staying beyond the ever watchful gaze of the bookmakers’ overworked “Account Closure” departments when tipping into weak, early/midweek betting markets.  Although this month has proved to be a little disappointing, Cheltenham is just around the corner, and this is a track where historically he has enjoyed some spectacular successes.  ROI -35.71%, ROC -5% (2017: ROI 8.04%, ROC 2.25%).

Last month’s hero Northern Monkey was brought down to earth a little through February.  This has been partly due to ongoing attempts to secure some decent stakes rolling onto Cheltenham Festival fancies by way of multiple bets.  Like last year, Wayne now has considerable capital invested in the Festival, and I approach Cheltenham with a mixture of excitement and trepidation.  Last year, Wayne’s strategy paid off handsomely, but with 36 points of an 80 point bank already laid down with the bookies, it’s “squeaky bum” time.  Roll on next Tuesday – let the fun and games begin!  ROI -20.66%, ROC -12.56% (2017: ROI 12.22%, ROC 15.77%).

Finally this month, I have to report a bit of a shocker for Chasemaster.  Roll on March.  I’m sure things will get better for F, P, and the team!  ROI -47.41%, ROC -13.75% (2017: ROI -23.09%, ROC -12.7%).

So, figures for 2017 ytd are: ROI 10.21%, ROC 8.59%.

March, to a large extent, revolves around Cheltenham.  Let’s hope the Festival is kind to us.

Until next week…

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  • Access to all SBC reviews, ratings and recommendations for each tipster;
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What it must take to be a winning tipster

It’s been a good week for Northern Monkey.  It is now the service I have followed for the longest period of time and it was nice to see Wayne’s service picking up the Best Racing Tipster and Best Overall Tipster gongs in the 2017 SBC Tipping and Betting awards.  When you consider that Northern Monkey is picking up each of these prizes for the third consecutive year, then we have to acknowledge that here is a tipping service that has made consistency it’s hallmark.

Changing times but excellence maintained

What makes the achievement even more impressive is that, to my mind anyway, the horse racing tipster world is a far more competitive one than that which NMP was born into back in the early stages of 2010.  Over the years Wayne has undoubtedly improved his tipping skills and has developed into the consummate professional.

I do frequently find myself wondering how testing and wearing being a tipster must be, and for purely selfish reasons, I hope Wayne is not too wearied just yet..  I guess stress and strain are each easier to deal with when results are good and you’re picking up prizes, but there must be times when all successful tipsters find the going particularly heavy.

Plenty come, plenty go

The fact is that over the years I have seen so many tipsters come, burn brightly, and then burn out.  That a tipster can remain focused and perhaps most importantly of all, motivated, is one of the hardest skills to perfect.  There’s a natural inclination to believe that what gives a betting expert an edge is simply the ability to identify value betting opportunities, and of course it is.  But just as important is the ability to keep a level head and a consistent approach to exploiting their edge, remaining unaffected by winning spells and losing runs.

All of which must be extremely testing to the tipster’s psychology.  Especially when you bring into the equation that many tipsters have families and full time jobs to contend with too.  They are affected by the things that happen in life just as you and I are, but they operate in an extremely unforgiving and hostile environment.  When they make mistakes, they are ruthlessly exposed – we and they lose cold hard cash.  I’m not too sure I could do it.

Betting from Saturday 18th February to Friday 24th February

Of the six racing tipsters in the portfolio, none showed a profit this last week, and if it wasn’t for a fantastic weekend for Pinpoint Golf, which came pretty close to a 1,000/1 winner, the last week would have been a nightmare.  As it is, it ended up showing a marginal profit which under the circumstances, I’ll gladly take.

Chasemaster simply can’t buy a winner at present although they were few and far between across the board.  The only notable successes were Northern Monkey’s Zac Brown (Lingfield – 10/1) last Saturday and Will Lattimore’s Suyoof (Meydan – 8/1) on Thursday.

Here are the figures for the month to date:

Chasemaster: Staked 23pts, -14.25pts.

Jason James: Staked 101pts, +38.91pts.

MVS (Lite): Staked 42pts, +5.83pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 40.75pts, -5.67pts.

Racing Service A: Staked 6.125pts, -1.625pts.

Racing Service B: Staked 63pts, +0.95pts.

Football Service 1: Staked 7pts, +0.04pts.

Pinpoint Golf: Staked 137.25pts, +19.3pts.

February’s performance to date: ROI 3.78%, ROC 1.38%.

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The Beauty of BOG – make the most of it whilst you can.

Jason James sent an email out to members this week, part of which I found particularly interesting, simply because it addressed something that I have often wondered about.

We all understand about the necessity of finding value if we are to bet profitably, right?  I get that, but what I have more difficulty getting my head around is what price represents value.  I know Racing Tipster A has in the past, pointed out that the horses he finds that are backed in after the on course market opens are highly profitable, and even if taking SP profitability remains strong.  This means that he could tip a horse at say, 10/1, but even if it opens on course at 8s and is backed in further to 6s, the 6s is still worth taking.  Would I take 6s ten minutes after a tip has been issued at 10s?  No, I wouldn’t.

Jason attacked this issue of value very succinctly: “Value to me is in the eye of the beholder a bit like the beauty I see in my missis as I see her as the most beautiful person i have ever seen for one reason or another while other people may see her as just plain pug ugly!”

Value is in the eye of the beholder!  And I guess that those that have an “eye” for value are those that make money.  It is those tipsters that can be accurate in their subjective calculations and estimations that will make us money in the long term.

On another point, I have noticed that I have benefited from the BOG concession with Jason’s tips recently.  The latest winner to get a boost in price from BOG was Suzi’s Connoisseur, tipped up at 6/1 and going off at 9/1 on Tuesday.

The issue of BOG and it’s application to a tipster’s performance record was something at the forefront of my mind after writing a review of a service that you can read in the latest SBC Betting Magazine which was released on Friday.  You can see quite clearly the benefits that having BOG can bring, but as punters who expect to win, I believe that we have to view BOG as something of a bonus and not something we can rely upon in the long term.  With my new set of accounts I’m certainly pleased to have the concession as a temporary part of my armoury, but know it can’t and won’t last.  That said, I am taking every conceivable effort to extend it’s lifespan for as long as possible, spreading bets around bookmakers like you wouldn’t believe.  So far, so good.

Let’s  make BOG hay whilst the sun shines, and if you’re just starting out on your betting adventure, make the most of it whilst you can!

Betting from Saturday February 11th to Friday February 17th

A small step backwards this week.

Jason James continues in fine form, with Saturday netting 13.7 points of profit and Thursday 12.4 points.  Highlight of the week was probably a 2 point win bet (the standard is 1 point) on Outer Space – Chelmsford – 8/1.

It was a second consecutive good week for MVS (Lite) and anyone playing the old doubles system with this service should have made a decent profit over the last few days too.

Nasty losses though for Chasemaster and Pinpoint Golf however, meant the week produced an overall loss – ROI -12.8%, ROC -1.57%.

Here are the figures for the month to date:

Chasemaster: Staked 18pts, -9.25pts.

Jason James: Staked 70pts, +47.41pts.

MVS (Lite): Staked 28pts, +8.33pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 25pts, -3.92pts.

Racing Tipster A: Staked 3.75pts, +0.75pts.

Racing Tipster B: Staked 46pts, 2.05pts.

Pinpoint Golf: Staked 95.25pts, -26.3pts.

Football Service 1: Staked 6pts, +1.04pts.

February’s performance to date: ROI 4.62%, ROC 1.17%.

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Serious investment or playing for kicks?

Do you want to bet to make money, or do you want to simply do it for fun?  In other words, do you really care about what you are betting on as long as you make a profit, or do you only want to put bets into markets you know something about or have a real interest in?

These are really good questions to ask yourself.

The “fun” is in counting up the profit

I have bet on some really “strange” things in my time; Eastern European women’s netball, Hungarian Division 2 football…you name it, I’ve probably bet on it.  Now I do like my footie, but I’m no expert on the Hungarian leagues!  But I really couldn’t have cared a less about this when I placed my bet.  My trust was with a tipster who did know about Hungarian football, and I was placing the bet with the aim of beating the book.

I DO have a strong interest in English Premiership football, but even now, a very small proportion of my bets concern this league.  This is a sport that the bookies are all over.  They take millions of pounds and euros, not to mention yen, yuan and rupees over in Asia, and they therefore pour huge resources into making sure they price up the matches accurately.  To eke out a profit in Premier League football, you really do need to know your stuff.  Creating an edge in these markets is incredibly difficult, and therefore I’d rather be investing my money into markets which are considerably easier to gain an advantage.

So if you don’t like betting on tennis, but you find a tipster with a long-term proven edge in the sport, why would you not follow?  We’re betting simply to make money, aren’t we?

The bottom line is all that counts

The reality is that the bottom line is all that should matter to us.  Yes, of course you must examine the tipster you’re considering following to ensure the practicalities are in line with your own personal circumstances.  Can you get the bets on promptly and secure the right prices?  But if they do, and you can, then whether or not you like the sport you’re betting on really is an irrelevance.

Pre-conceptions are dangerous things.  Pre-conceptions are generated through personal experience.  Just because you find it nearly impossible to identify a horse with four working legs, never mind one that is capable of running fast enough in the conditions to have a chance of winning the race, can’t put you off utilizing the expertise of someone who can.

Let’s face it, an awful lot of people go to work to do jobs they don’t particularly enjoy doing.  But they go anyway, because at the end of the week or month, they get a payslip and money goes into their account.  It’s the same with betting.  Don’t go putting on any blinkers you don’t need to wear.

Betting from February 1st to Friday February 10th

A good start to the month, building on January’s success.

Last Saturday was a spectacular day for Jason James as he nailed a 33/1 winner (Ballythomas – Musselburgh).  The guy’s ROC figures are now at a ridiculously high level for the time he has been tipping commercially.  Extremely impressive stuff.

Elsewhere it has really been a case of solid accumulation.  The only other really notable winner was provided by Racing Service A, again last Saturday, in the shape of Baie Des Iles – 8/1 – Punchestown.  But you know what?  I like solid accumulation. I really do.

Here are the figures for the month:

Chasemaster: Staked 11pts, -2.25pts.

Jason James: Staked 40.5pts, +24.26pts.

Morning Value Service (Lite): Staked 16pts, +2.5pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 13.5pts, -2.55pts.

Racing Service A: Staked 2pts, +2.5pts.

Racing Service B: Staked 22.5pts, +6.6pts.

Football Service 1: Staked 5pts, +2.04pts.

Pinpoint Golf: Staked 29.25pts, +0.75pts)

February’s performance to date: ROI 21.11%, ROC 2.74%.

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Take Your Betting Up A Notch With The Bet Diary PRO!

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First introduced in early 2015, the Bet Diary Pro provides even more on the practical realities of following tipsters to make money betting including:

  • Exclusive extra analysis on my betting portfolio and ongoing betting journey;
  • The EXACT identities of each of the tipsters I follow to make money betting;
  • Access to all SBC reviews, ratings and recommendations for each tipster;
  • Access to several major discounts/trials on the tipsters I follow;
  • Access to the SBC Tipping Forum and several free profitable tipsters.

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January Review – a good, solid start to 2017

Flippin’ ‘eck!  How quickly does time go by?  It only seems a minute ago since it was Christmas!

So the first month of our betting year is complete, and a very nice, profitable month it has been too.  Of the eight services in the portfolio, only one made a loss, and when this happens progress is always going to be fairly smooth.  That’s how January has felt – smooth.  There were no massive dips in performance, no big drawdowns.  Just an easy path to profit, and I love it when it’s like this.  It makes the game feel easy.

But of course the game is anything but easy.  There will be testing times to come.  It’s not a matter of if, but when.  No point in losing any sleep though.  Let’s just enjoy a good run whilst it lasts.

January’s Figures

The total figures for January’s betting are: ROI 17.61%, ROC 7.42%.

The outstanding performer of the month was undoubtedly Northern Monkey.  Puzzlingly, when I look at the service’s official results, I seem to have staked an extra half a point. Goodness knows where that was!  My return of +22.66 points is 1.57 points greater than Wayne’s record, highlighting again the fair price settlement policy that he employs.  ROI 41.45%, ROC 28.33%.

Jason James year got off to a flying start.  After the first week/ten days, things slowed a little for him, but nevertheless a strong profit was made through the month as a whole.  Without giving away too much, his February has got off to a similarly explosive start, so let’s hope for more of the same through the next few weeks.  Notably introduced a subtly different odds recording policy and any move to make a service more follower friendly is to be admired.  It was this service too, that I benefited most from having new bookmaker accounts to use, with BOG concession included.  My figures of +25.41 points profit are on a different level to Jason’s non-BOG applied official result of +13.64 points, and 1.22 points more than Jason’s figures with BOG applied.  This pleases me immensely!  ROI 18.28%, ROC 12.57%.

The Morning Value (Lite) service is one that can make a profit in what I would describe as a ‘stealthy’ fashion.  Backing at the front end of the market and to level stakes means that there are never any spectacular wins.  So when profit accumulates, it’s done quietly.  There’s a lot to be said for this – it’s easy on the old ticker!  ROI 20.61%, ROC 7.63%.  

January tends to be a relatively quiet month for Racing Service A, lying as it does between the frenzy of Christmas racing in December and the Cheltenham Festival in March.  It is when winter is at it’s darkest and deepest too, with desperate ground conditions often the norm.  Exacerbating the issue is the tipster finding the midweek markets too weak to tip into, which I feel is a constant source of frustration to him.  In an effort to counter a lack of betting turnover a little, he is looking to issue more ‘Top Picks’, ie. horses at shorter prices that he doesn’t feel he can issue as an official tip because of the price, but which he feels have a darned good chance of winning.  I will add these to my official figures moving forwards from this point – their record is outstanding.  Despite the small number of bets, it was a successful month.  ROI 51.79%, ROC 7.25%.

It was a similarly quiet month for the Football Service 1.  Just 11 bets issued, turnover no doubt effected by the third and fourth rounds of the FA Cup reducing the number of league games played.  Still, a good profit returned.  ROI 32.63%, ROC 7.18%.

Back to horse racing and it has been a solid enough start to the year for Racing Service B.  It’s still not reaching the spectacular heights of the past, but a definite return to form this month.  If he can maintain this gathering momentum through February, then I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see a massive month posted in the near future.  Who knows, it could even be this month.  ROI 11.61%, ROC 5.81.

A more or less break even month for Chasemaster.  ROI 4.03%, ROC 1.63%.

And finally, the only bum note for January – Pinpoint Golf.  Not a disastrous month by any means and with the Tours getting into full swing now, there’s a lot of betting action to look forward to.  I am giving serious consideration to incorporating the Top 10 and Top 20 bets that are issued but which don’t go down on the ‘official’ slate.  I can see their value in that they should theoretically cut down the losing runs that are an inevitable part of golf betting, and their historical performance is strong.  It would necessitate a change in bank/staking, so some thought necessary before taking the plunge.  ROI -15.37%, ROC -7.43%.

Until next time.

Rowan Day

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Getting used to losing.

Let’s say this straight up:  if you plan or have started to put your betting on a more professional basis, you are still going to experience a lot of losing.  It is very likely that your losing days will outnumber your winning days, and it is a 100% certainty that you will have more losing bets than winning ones.

With this in mind, you need to get used to losing…fast!

The brain is wired up wrong for long-term success.

Following numerous scientific studies into the effects that the gambling process has on the brain, it appears that we are not really wired up in such a way that makes focusing on the long term a naturally easy thing to do.  And yet, as you have no doubt read many, many times already, if we are to make a success of our betting, we simply must ignore the short term trends and concentrate on the long term.  We have a betting conundrum on our hands.

The fact is that, in layman’s terms, the mental impact of a losing bet is greater and lasts for longer than the impact of a winning bet.  So how do we cope when we know we will have more losers than winners?

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Don’t ignore the potential downsides.

A very easy trap to fall into is to believe that if you set your betting portfolio up properly, if you calculate the correct levels of staking and ensure your portfolio is nicely diversified, and your betting banks are all lined up…that good results will naturally follow.  Effective planning can often lead to a false sense of security.  It is human nature to underestimate the chances of failure when setting out on a new venture.

So start asking yourself some serious questions, and think deeply about the answers.  And be truthful with yourself when asking the following questions:

  • How patient am I?
  • How will I deal with it if I don’t start making a profit for a few months?
  • How much can I lose?
  • How will I react if all my services have a losing month together?
  • How will I react if I sign up to a new service and they make a loss over the first six months?

All tipsters have losing runs.  That’s why it is so important to set up your betting banks conservatively – it is your bank that will act as a comfort blanket through the bad times.  But you must acknowledge that you may be really unfortunate in joining a service just as he or she embarks upon one of those losing runs.  It’s not likely, but it could happen, and you need to be mentally strong enough to cope with this.

I would also strongly recommend that as you start your betting, you keep a note of your worst losing runs.  This means that when things go bad in the future, you can compare current performance with bad times in the past.  You will be able to see your worst case scenarios and this in itself will make you more understanding of the losing runs as they hit.  To my mind, this is why experience is such a huge asset in betting – what you have to accept is that there is only one way to gain that experience.

Betting from Saturday 21st January to Friday 27th January

Well after so much profit making, I knew I was due a correction of some sort, and last week, that is precisely what happened.  No service bombed out completely, although Pinpoint Golf came closest to doing so, losing 23 points of the 38 staked,  Generally though, it was more a case of each service losing a little and the losses mounting up.

The honourable exception was Football Service A who came up with three winners from five bets for a 2.59 point profit.

Here are the figures for the month:

Chasemaster: Staked 22pts, -3.55pts.

Jason James: Staked 117.5pts, +11.941pts.

Morning Value Service (Lite): Staked 34pts, +4.375pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 48.16pts, +29.155pts.

Racing Service A: Staked 5.75pts, +1.125pts.

Racing Service B: Staked 99pts, +10.608pts.

Football Service A: Staked 8pts, +2.59pts.

Pinpoint Golf: Staked 65.162pts, -5pts.

January’s performance to date: ROI 18.81%, ROC 6.69%.

Until next time, good luck with your betting!

Rowan Day

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Take Your Betting Up A Notch With The Bet Diary PRO!

If you enjoy reading these free Bet Diary posts, then you can gain access to my more detailed, professional betting blog (Bet Diary Pro) as a Secret Betting Club member.

First introduced in early 2015, the Bet Diary Pro provides even more on the practical realities of following tipsters to make money betting including:

  • Exclusive extra analysis on my betting portfolio and ongoing betting journey;
  • The EXACT identities of each of the tipsters I follow to make money betting;
  • Access to all SBC reviews, ratings and recommendations for each tipster;
  • Access to several major discounts/trials on the tipsters I follow;
  • Access to the SBC Tipping Forum and several free profitable tipsters.

Access to the Bet Diary Pro is available right away with either a Silver, Gold or Platinum Secret Betting Club membership.

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Ah, those were the days….

I used to love betting shops. I loved the smell, the atmosphere, the almost tangible pall of silent desperation as ‘Racing Posts’ were pored over by all and sundry in the increasingly urgent search for a winner…any winner.  I’m going back about 25 years here, before the bookies’ offices became what they are now – full of FOBT machines and no smoking allowed.  They were choc-full of characters; the old geezer who, judging by the smell coming off him, had done a runner from a badly run care home and who was using the shop as a refuge. As long as he remained undetected, he was going to make the most of his freedom!  Then there was the overweight thirty-something with his tie halfway down his neck and shirt untucked, chewing gum loudly and invading your personal space as he read the racecards pinned to the wall.  I remember this guy well.  Many times I tried desperately to avoid eye contact because whenever I made the mistakeof even just nodding acknowledgement of his presence, he’d bore me for what seemed like hours with boasts of his sexual prowess, capacity to sink 12 pints, ability to down the hottest curry in the Jai Kathmandhu, and his latest winning bets that had landed him thousands.  I couldn’t help but think at the time that with all these winners, he really could afford to jack in the call centre that was paying him below the minimum wage, but he never seemed to quite be brave enough!

The point I’m making though, is that these filthy, smoke-filled dens of iniquity were full of characters, and I miss them.

I worked in betting office once. Briefly.

I was 16 and took a pathetic pride in the fact that I was able to get a bet on without being asked for ID. I swear the guy behind the counter – Eamonn, if I remember rightly – knew full well I was underage, but these were the days before I had the self-awareness to accept that as far as picking winners was concerned, I was pretty clueless.  I was contributing to the shop’s income with an admirable consistency.  Far from banning me for a couple of years, Eamonn always seemed pleased to see me!

Anyway, I walked in one day to find that Sid, the guy who wrote the odds for each horse in each race and the results as they were announced on a great big whiteboard, was off sick.  So myself and a mate of mine volunteered our services.  I can honestly say it is the hardest job I have ever done.  Listening to all the info coming through on the old SIS radio broadcasts, writing up odds, keeping results up to speed, and trying to place a bet amongst it all?  I lasted ten minutes!  And it wasn’t just me – my mate was as bad.  Even with the two of us, we just couldn’t keep up with the pace of it all.  So my career in bookmaking lasted from the start of the first race of the day to the result coming in for the second.

So what has this trip down memory lane got to do with running a betting portfolio twenty odd years later, you may ask?  Well, perhaps most importantly, it’s a good idea to know the limits of your abilities if you want to be in this game for the long term. When I first started following tipsters, I quickly forgot that I couldn’t pick a winner to save my life, and regularly threw in my own bets based on my own (usually wrong) assessment of a race. It meant my tipsters were making money, but I wasn’t, or at least not as much as I should have been making. Secondly, it wasn’t until I learnt what my strengths were and started playing to them that I started to make money consistently.  And lastly, I reckon it’s probably a good idea to give things a little time to work out.  Longer than I gave my job in the bookies, anyway.

Betting from Saturday 14th January to Friday 20th January

Another really strong week.  It’s all very nice when things go as smoothly as they have been doing since the start of the year.  This last week ran at an ROI of 40.86% and added another 9.93% to the bank.

Top of the Pops last week was Northern Monkey, and Top of the Pops this week was….Northern Monkey!

A superbly consistent week’s betting from NMP and a masterclass in staking.  Most of the week’s 17 points profit came from bets that were staked a little more heavily than the norm, plus a nice winning double.

The good form of Morning Value Service (Lite) continued with another four winners to add 6.75 points of profit, and Racing Service A came good with a lovely winner on Friday at 20/1 to bring January into profit overall.  Let’s hope he builds on that and gathers some momentum.

Pinpoint Golf has started the year well with another 13 points boosting the coffers, although reading his weekly performance review I wish I’d backed the Top 10 and Top 20 market selections as they had a stormer!

The only negative this week was Jason James who struggled a little, but who has still posted strong figures for the month to date.

Here are the figures for the month:

Chasemaster: Staked 16pts, -0.05pts.

Jason James: Staked 87.5pts, +20.141pts.

Morning Value Service (Lite): Staked 27pts, +9.125pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 35.16pts, +34.373pts.

Racing Service A: Staked 5pts, +0.625pts.

Racing Service B: Staked 68.5pts, +14.283pts.

Football Service 1: Staked 3pts, n/a.

Pinpoint Golf: Staked 27.162pts, +18pts.

January’s performance to date: ROI 40.86%, ROC 9.93%.

 

Getting your “money head” straight.

In the last post we talked about getting the fundamentals right when setting up your betting portfolio.  The first fundamental we considered, quite naturally, was about picking the right tipsters and not taking an unnecessary gamble with exactly who you decide to follow.  The point being made was that whilst there are so many good services available, that are professionally run and proven to be profitable to the SBC, that there was no reason at all to look for tipsters elsewhere.

This is just the start though.  There are other considerations that should be given due attention before you take the plunge and start betting, and one such important consideration is what I want to talk about in this post.

Financial management

It is essential to know, before you start, how much you will be staking on each selection your tipster provides you with.  This means being crystal clear in your own mind exactly what proportion of your overall betting bank you are dedicating to the service, how many points that bank consists of, and what the monetary value of that point is, ie. your £/point or €/point.

Say you have decided to follow four tipsters and for ease of figures have £8,000 available as a betting bank.  It is my opinion that when starting out it is sensible to share your resources equally between the tipsters you are following, so in this case, £2,000 per service.

So you’ve read the reviews in the SBC’s betting magazines and have settled upon the four services you wish to sign up to.  Within those reviews you will have noted the recommended points betting bank that the SBC suggest.  From there it’s easy to calculate your stakes for each service.

Let’s say we have a portfolio that looks something like this:

Service 1: recommended bank of 100 points.

Service 2: recommended bank of 80 points.

Service 3: recommended bank of 50 points.

Service 4: recommended bank of 100 points.

For Services 1 and 4 we’ll be backing at £20/point, ie. £2,000/100.  So if Service 1 – a horse racing service – advises a bet carrying a stake of 0.5 points each way, our stake will be £10 each way.

And so on…Service 2 will carry a stake of £25/point, and Service 3 £40/point.  Easy.

Having a clear vision.

All of this sounds (and is) extremely straightforward and obvious.  But, I feel strongly that this basic exercise is something you must do before you actually start betting.  It is essential that as you carry on with your betting, that you keep your mind as focused and as clear as it possibly can be.  If you don’t, you will find that you grow more vulnerable to making rash decisions when things go badly, which they inevitably will from time to time.

I remember not long after I started betting “properly” that I went through a bad run.  It was then that I started messing about with my staking making basic mistakes such as reducing the stakes of the services that were losing and increasing the stakes of those that were doing ok.  Of course the inevitable then happens and I subsequently understake the services that had been losing but recover, and was staking more on the services that were doing ok but then went through a poor patch!  You’ll be amazed how common a mistake this is to make!

If you have your financial plan absolutely set in stone (and put it in writing too, as it helps to focus the mind) then it is easier to keep your mind clear and thinking rationally when the testing times begin. I can’t emphasise strongly enough how much success in betting is reliant on a consistent and clear mental approach…so start as you mean to go on!

Betting from Friday 6th January to Friday 13th January

It’s been an excellent week that produced an ROI of 31.94% and bank growth of 2.69%.

The top performer was Northern Monkey who came up with a stormer on Tuesday (Gracious Tom – Southwell – 11/2).  It wasn’t the odds that made the bet, but the staking of 0.75pts on the win and 0.5pts on the place.  Nice.  Thursday also produced the goods (Final Venture – Meydan – 10/1) , but these two horses were merely the highlights – there were other winners.

Morning Value Service enjoyed a very strong week with numerous (five) winners to push it into profit for the month and Chasemaster poked it’s nose out of the red and into the black on the back of a couple of winners too.

In fact the only services not showing a profit so far in 2017 are Football Service 1 which has had just the one bet so far, and Racing Service A which has hardly been prolific with it’s tipping either.

Here are the figures for the month to date:

Chasemaster: Staked 10pts, +0.45pts.

Jason James: Staked 57.5pts, +33.891pts.

Morning Value Service (Lite): Staked 17pts, +2.375pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 22.66pts, +17.302pts.

Racing Service A: Staked 2.375pts, -2.375pts.

Racing Service B: Staked 35pts, +14.533pts.

Football Service 1: Staked 1pt, -1pt.

Pinpoint Golf: Staked 14.625pts, +5pts.

January’s performance to date: ROI 38.4%, ROC 5.55%.