Northern Monkey’s Profit Explosion, Early View on Pilelist, & Winter On It’s Way As National Hunt Service Warms Up

Northern Monkey’s Profit Explosion

I can’t possibly start this week’s post with anything but a huge big-up and doff of the cap to Northern Monkey.

It’s been a frustrating year for Wayne and his disciples, but after yesterday’s events NMP subscribers ought to be offering to bathe Wayne’s feet in milk whilst peeling his grapes for him.

Picking the winner of the notoriously difficult Cesarewitch is a tremendously difficult task in itself.  To pick out what went off as the 5/1 favourite antepost at 25/1 is, some might argue, bordering on the miraculous.  To double it up with a 100/30 winner on Tuesday when still at 12/1?  Well, I’d say Wayne doesn’t so much walk on water as tap dance his way over it.

The upshot was a tremendous Saturday’s sport, boosted further by Morning Value Service (Lite) weighing in with three winners, but the weekend undoubtedly belonged to Wayne.

Lot to like about Pilelist Racing

Naturally it’s always easy to write good things about a service you’re new to when they’re knocking in big priced winners, which is something Pilelist Racing did on Tuesday with Landing Night finishing first past the post at 20/1 up at Newcastle.  But it’s fair to say that there’s a lot to like about this service.

Succinct but detailed bet rationale, tip release when markets are mature, odds holding up well…it’s taken very little time to acclimatize to following, primarily because all the basic things you want to see in a service are there.  It’s been only two weeks from placing my first Pilelist bet, but I’m already feeling that the service is akin to a comfy pair of slippers or a favourite armchair.

Winter is on it’s way, but TVB is warming up nicely

As far as I am aware, Racing Service A is the only horse racing tipster out there to have a pre-season.  The decent weekend National Hunt Chepstow card signifies the fact that the fledgling jumps season is beginning to get serious.  It is at this time that A. starts to gain a feel for things again after a summer off.

Members who have been missing Racing Service A’s daily ponderings and doses of wisdom were given a treat when A. sent out a couple of emails detailing his thoughts.  Experimenting with a staking system that is new for 2017/18 and attempting to get the rustiness out of his formbook reading, A. showed that the magic has not diminished over the summer months.  Although not an ‘official’ tip, he was able to bang in 14/1 winner Court Minstrel.  Roll on the start of November when things go live.

A fine week

After Northern Monkey’s stormer on Saturday, things would have had to have been pretty disastrous elsewhere for this past week to have been anything other than a very good one.  Although Chasemaster, Jason James and Racing Service B disappointed, good performances from MVS (Lite) and Pilelist ensured that disaster didn’t strike.

Here are the figures for the month to date:

AH Edge: Staked 21pts, -0.36pts.

Chasemaster: Staked 10.25pts, -8.687pts.

Football Service 1: Staked 9pts, +0.708pts.

Golf Insider: Staked 590pts, +513.1pts.

Jason James: Staked 53.5pts, -22.917pts.

MVS (Lite): Staked 30pts, +16.5pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 28pts, +38.321pts.

Pilelist Racing: Staked 25.645pts, +8.175pts.

Racing Service A: n/a.

Racing Service B: Staked 27.75pts, +4.85pts.

October ROI: 30%.  ROC: 6.23%.

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Autumn Growth

Spring is the time of growth, is it not?  Autumn the time of slow death and decay as nature readies itself for the cold and barren winter months.  Well, not for this little bunny rabbit it’s not!

Three new services added to the portfolio for the start of October…

BANG! AH Edge – adding to the football element with (funnily enough) a concentration on the Asian Handicap markets.

BANG! Golf Insider – replacing Pinpoint Gold for reasons I will explain soon (and nothing at all against that service).

BANG! Pilelist Racing – an each way betting expert with a pretty decent long term track record.

This brings the portfolio up to ten services, providing a bit more turnover and more opportunity to grow bank levels.  I am still looking to add one or two more and will look to do so as we move into the New Year.

The intention is to bring more posts to the Bet Diary too.  Having a larger portfolio will make this easier to do as quite simply, there will be more to talk about.  So make sure you check back regularly!

Betting from 1st October to 7th October

The first week of the new month has produced an overall ROI of 9.4% and ROC of 0.89%.

The most notable performer in a positive sense has undoubtedly been Racing Service B whose recent good form has continued.  Badly in the negative is Northern Monkey, who has hopefully returned from a recent holiday refreshed, but possibly a little rusty!  Loads of time this month to get back on track, however.

Here are the figures…

AH Edge: Staked 15pts, -0.399pts.

Chasemaster: Staked 3pts, -1.437pts.

Football Service 1: Staked 4pts, +1.273pts.

Golf Insider: Staked 150pts, +215.6pts.

Jason James: Staked 27pts, -0.25pts.

MVS (Lite): Staked 9pts, +6pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 12.5pts, -11.262pts.

Pilelist Racing: Staked 10.392pts, +3.727pts.

Racing Service A: n/a.

Racing Service B: Staked 12.25pts, +20.35pts.

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September’s Betting Review

And so another month whizzes by.  Seriously, where the heck has this year gone?!?  It’s frightening how quickly the months and weeks pass.

September is notable for the fact the return of football betting following the summer break.  As was the case last season, I’m following Football Service 1 through 2017/18.  However, in what is a general expansion of the portfolio, I will be introducing another football service into proceedings.  More detail on that and another couple of additions very soon.

September’s betting returned a solid enough 10.23% ROI, and bank growth of 4.49%.  Five of the seven services to issue bets returned a profit.

It gives me great pleasure to write that the most lucrative service to follow last month was Racing Service B.  I was having lunch and a beer with a couple of betting friends last week when the subject of this tipster’s approach to the game came up in conversation.  It was fascinating to hear the thoughts of another experienced bettor on the Irish tipster’s prowess.  My friend felt that via the various conversations he had enjoyed with this tipster over a period of time, the one thing that came through very strongly was that his intimate knowledge of horse racing and his “feel” (or understanding) for the sport provides him with a genuine edge over the bookmaker.

Of course I have bemoaned on these very pages a lack of progress up the Racing Service B P&L chart in the recent past, and it was good to have my confidence and faith in it reaffirmed by my friend’s thoughts.  It has been good too, for that reaffirmation to be firmly cemented by what has been a cracking month – 46.85pts profit at an ROI of 56.1%, or, put another way, bank growth of 23.4%!  Long may this form continue.

A positive mention too for Northern Monkey who both managed to squeeze in a well-deserved holiday and squeeze out a pretty healthy profit of 10.048pts at an ROI of 12.5% and ROC of 12.56%.  It’s been a frustrating summer for Wayne with a number of near misses.  Had the betting Gods smiled a little more favourably the summer months would have been lucrative ones for NMP members, but I guess them’s the breaks!

Here are the figures…

Chasemaster: Staked 19pts, +4.76pts, ROI 25.08%, ROC 4.76%.

Jason James: Staked 106.5pts, +15.65pts, ROI 14.9%, ROC 7.82%.

Morning Value Lite: Staked 52pts, +1.5pts, ROI 2.88%, ROC 1.5%.

Northern Monkey: Staked 80.25pts, +10.048pts, ROI 12.52%, ROC 12.56%.

Racing Service B: Staked 83.5pts, +46.85pts, ROI 56.1%, ROC 23.42%.

Pinpoint Golf: Staked 133.8pts, -47.207pts, ROI -35.28%, ROC -9.44%.

Football Service 1: Staked 13pts, -3.764pts, ROI -28.95%, ROC -7.52%.

So, next time, news of some changes.  Tune in shortly…

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New Season Nerves

Five selections from Football Service A this weekend, the first of the 2017/18 season.  It’s good to be back betting on the footie.  May was the last time I struck a football bet.  Seems a long time ago!

On Thursday, in the first email of the new season sent out to members, the brains of the service admitted to being nervous as the first weekend of action approached.  It’s something I’ve heard him confess before the start of previous seasons too, and it’s good to know that after all the years he’s been running his service he still gets butterflies before the off.  There’s something comforting about the fact that a successful tipster is as keyed up and eager as I imagine most of those who follow his systems are.

I don’t know what it is that causes the nerves.  We’d have to ask him directly to find that out although I’d not be confident of getting any sort of revealing answer as it was stated in his email that he doesn’t really know himself.  I guess it’s like a top opening batsman getting nervous before he goes out to bat, or a world renowned footballer feeling tense prior to a big match.  Hopefully, just as the batsman’s nerves ease with his first run and the footballer’s after a good first touch, Stewboss will settle into the rhythm and routine of the season over the next few weeks as the games come thick and fast.

On a practical front it’s going to be interesting to see if the odds on some selections drop a little more quickly than we’re used to as the 7.00 bet release time on the Thursday is now being shared with the Football Messiah service.  Any doubling up of selections will of course mean more money going on to the same team so I’d anticipate some effect.  Let’s hope that not too many selections coincide.

Let’s also hope for a good season.

One more week of September’s betting to go.  Results soon…

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A tangible reward for patience.

How many times have you read about the need for patience when you’re betting?  It feels like I’ve used the word more than any other in the writing of this blog over the months and years!

And look, we do need patience.  Of course we do.  But sometimes it’s really good to see how being being patient can have a tangible reward so it’s importance is brought home to us in practical terms as opposed to it being something we simply read about and acknowledge.

Racing Service B has, I think it’s fair to say, exercised the patience of his members over recent times.  An undoubtedly talented tipster with an extremely strong long term track record, the last few months have seen very little/no headway.  I’m sure a number of followers will have moved on from the service, eager to catch the next big thing in the tipster world.  Those who didn’t, were compensated quite spectacularly last Saturday (9th).

Haydock 4.45: Face The Facts 1pt each way – 2nd 11/1.

Haydock 4.10: Sepal – 2pts win – WON 4/1.

Leopardstown 7.20: Burnt Sugar – 0.75pts win – WON 12/1.

Leopardstown 4.35: Laws Of Spin – 1pt each way – WON 20/1.

After a couple of dropped points from losers, the day’s profit tally ended up at +38.4pts!

Now I’m not suggesting that this service’s testing period ends now.  But it’s one heck of a start to ending it.  Hopefully this will be the spark to get things going again.  Of course it might not be, but one thing’s for certain…

I sure am pleased I remained patient! 🙂

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August Review

The word that most accurately describes portfolio performance through August is “solid”.  An overall ROI of 12.03% is pleasing and bank growth of 6.88% is not to be sniffed at.  Of the six services to provide tips, five ended the month in profit.

This month’s ‘Top Tipster’ award goes to Jason James Quantum Racing.  This was looking highly unlikely until last Saturday when a 2pt win double was landed, coughing up a 30.5pt profit in the process.

Last Saturday was actually a fantastic day all round with the day’s total profit figure representing 67% of the end of month profit figure.  Good job I didn’t miss those bets coming through!

Racing Service B was another who left it until late in the month before producing the goods, and like Jason James, that he did so at all was largely down to a successful win double, this time on Wednesday just gone (30th).  So when all was counted up Will enjoyed a decent enough August and it really is time now for the service to kick on.  It’s been a wee while since it demonstrated any real consistency and it needs to end the year strongly for me to retain the faith.

Away from racing and it was nice to see Pinpoint Golf which enjoyed another good month, mainly due to Justin Thomas winning the USPGA.  Ironically, for a service that relies predominantly on a statistical pricing money, there was a fair amount of personal judgment that went into making Thomas a tip.  Should Liam continue to combine the findings of his model with such shrewd personal judgment, the golf betting future will be bright.

The only bum note this past month has been played by Morning Value Service (Lite).  I guess that after such an outstanding performance over June and July, we were due a small correction, and that’s what we got.

Chasemaster: Staked 16pts, +3.333pts, ROI 20.8%, ROC 3.33%.

Jason James: Staked 129pts, +34.007pts, ROI 26.36%, ROC 17%.

Morning Value Service (Lite): Staked 79pts, -4.917pts, ROI -6.22%, ROC -4.91%.

Northern Monkey: Staked 90.2pts, +4.697pts, ROI 5.21%, ROC 5.87%.

Racing Service B: Staked 92.5pts, +19.375pts, ROI 20.94%, ROC 9.68%.

Pinpoint Golf: Staked 151.8pts, +47.3pts, ROI 31.16%, ROC 9.46%.

 

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Not letting life get in the way of a good tip.

How often do you find that, “life gets in the way” of doing what you either want or obliged to do?  Things happen, that are out of your control, and dealing with these events often mean that you can’t devote as much time to your work as you would like, or you can’t go on holiday as planned, or similar.

Now I don’t know about you – and perhaps I’m being a little self-centred here – but I find that when these things happen you can often become so self-absorbed that you tend to block out from your own mental processes the fact that others have do deal with what life throws at them too.  That people you work with or friends have to deal with problems and issues in the same way as you do.  I don’t mean this in a nasty, completely selfish way.  It’s just human nature to concentrate on dealing with your own issues when they arise, or those of your immediate family.

They say that some of the most stressful “life events” we have to deal with as adults are moving house and having children.   The times that I’ve moved house, and on two occasions had the joy of bringing a new life into the world, I took some time off work.  I think the Missus would have been a little less than impressed if I hadn’t!  And so it was tremendous respect that I watched how two of the tipsters I follow go through these events recently, each barely taking a breather from tipping whilst they did so.

Wayne at Northern Monkey moved house a little while ago, but the tips kept coming.  I was minded too this week of how easy it can be to forget that the tipsters whose expertise we benefit from and who send their emails out on a daily basis do not commit every single waking second to reading form, writing and sending out emails to their members, and recording their results, but in fact are just “normal” folk dealing with day to day life as we all do.  Wayne explained how he had fallen asleep whilst preparing a members’ email in the wee small hours after working overtime in his day job.  Can’t help but admire his diligence and work ethic.

And congratulations to Kieran of the Morning Value Service (Lite) service whose life was both enriched and at the same time (in my experience) made more complicated for ever by the birth of his daughter recently.  Kieran’s paternity leave from tipping?  Three days.

Figures for the month to date below – more by way of thoughts on performance in the end of month review later this week, including observations on a quite remarkable Saturday.

Chasemaster: Staked 13pts, +6.333pts.

Jason James Quantum Racing: Staked 113.5pts, +36.007pts.

Morning Value Service (Lite): Staked 69pts, -0.792pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 79.6pts, +9.797pts.

Racing Service B: Staked 83pts, -4.635pts.

Pinpoint Golf: Staked 116.4pts, +61.317pts.

Total ROI: 15.29%.

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July Review

It’s been a funny old month.  At times it’s felt like a real struggle, but when all has been done, dusted and counted, it’s not been a bad one at all.

We had six services giving bets, three producing a profit and three a loss.  The final figures show an ROI of 8.63% and total bank growth of 5.17%.

The best performing service, for the second consecutive month, has been the Morning Value Service (Lite).  It really is going through a golden period.  I’m finding the odds quick to disappear now, certainly faster than in previous times and no doubt this is a consequence of the sheer level of profit that has been made recently.  This often happens when a tipster goes through a hot streak.  Some current members will no doubt be raising their stakes and perhaps as news spreads of the good form, new members sign up.  I can’t say I approve of folk doing this.  In my experience, staying consistent with staking and looking at the long term history of a tipster should be your guiding principles, not short term success.  I’m not suggesting folk shouldn’t join MVS (Lite).  Far from it – I’m just saying that the motivation for doing so should be the long term figures, not the exhilerating rate of profit accrued over the past two months.

Another to enjoy good times through July is Chasemaster.  Here is a service in which it is necessary to show patience.  There aren’t a lot of bets every day, and it can go through relatively lengthy spells of not much happening, but then seemingly out of the blue, BOOM!  The highlight this month was a horse called Strumble Head which ran on the 23rd.  Tipped at 8/1, returned at 10/1, it never looked like doing anything other than cruising to victory.  So nice when that happens!

The last service to end July in the black was Pinpoint Golf.  I know a knew method is being used in terms of utilizing the model that kicks up the selections, and at the moment it seems to be working.  What has impressed me over the past four or five weeks has been the relative consistency achieved.  I expect golf betting to be extremely volatile, but not this month.

Racing Service B and Northern Monkey each produced a small loss, and Jason James will be looking forward to a new month and not dwell too long on July!

Chasemaster: Staked 10pts, +16.487pts, ROI 164.87%, ROC 16.48%.

Jason James: Staked 107.5pts, -39.6pts, ROI -36.8%, ROC -19.8%.

Morning Value Service (Lite): Staked 92pts, +28.58pts, ROI 31.06%, ROC 28.58%.

Northern Monkey: Staked 117.87pts, -2.32pts, ROI -2%, ROC -2.71%.

Racing Service B: Staked 96pts, -2.17pts, ROI -2.26%, ROC -1.08%.

Pinpoint Golf: Staked 142.4pts, +40.9pts, ROI 28.72%, ROC 8.18%.

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Underwhelming…

July has not got off to the best of starts.  Performance does not yet qualify as a disaster, and there’s still plenty of time for the month to end as a good one.  As Corporal Jones was so fond of ordering anyone who would listen, “Don’t panic!”.

The month actually got off to a flier for Northern Monkey, who on the first landed a stormer with Higher Power who scooted home to win the Northumberland Plate up at Newcastle at odds of 8/1.  But if this was a sign of some Higher Power amongst the Gods of betting deciding that this was to be the start of a hot run for our favourite northern-based tipster, he soon changed his mind and now Northern Monkey is showing a fairly significant loss for the month to date.

July got off to a cracker too for Chasemaster who tipped up Alderbrook Lad at Cartmel, and who landed odds of 11/2.

It seemed too after the 4th landed a very good overall profit via winning tips from Jason JamesMorning Value Service (Lite) and Racing Service B that in fact we were on a bit of a roll, but alas it was not to be.  Two days later the deficit figure was a nasty one as every bugger went down, and then Saturday was, let’s say, disastrous.

Let’s move on…quickly…

Figures from July 1st – July 8th

Chasemaster: Staked 5pts, +5.8pts.

Jason James: Staked 34.5pts, -16.2pts.

Morning Value (Lite): Staked 25pts, -0.375pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 40.375pts, -9.453pts.

Racing Service B: Staked 27.25pts, -7.5pts.

Pinpoint Golf: Staked 30.4pts, +7.385pts.

Total: ROI -12.72%

 

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June review

What a month for Morning Value Service (Lite).  Look at these figures…

Staked 96pts, +53.175pts, ROI 55.39%, ROC 53.18%.

Quite incredible, and it’s been a joy following this month.  Unlike the other tipsters I use, where I’m splitting stakes like there’s no tomorrow to make sure I stay under the bookies’ radar for as long as possible, with MVS (Lite) I rarely bother.  We’re always backing at short odds with this service, placing bets that the bookmakers like to take.  It means I can go for the standout price, even if only being offered by just one or two firms, and with the benefit of BOG it’s been a potent combination through June.  We even had a winner at 7/1 on the 22nd, albeit one that was tipped at 3s.  You know when they come in that things are going for you!

To be 100% honest though, the superlative performance of MVS (Lite) has papered over some cracks, and I’d be lying if I didn’t admit to having some concerns over one or two services in the portfolio.

It’s been a while now since we saw any decent and consistent level of profit being made by Racing Tipster B and Chasemaster.  They each need to produce the goods through the second half of 2017.

I personally feel that Northern Monkey is possibly striving a little too hard for the bank doubling big multiple.  To be fair, it came within a whisker of doing just that on more than one occasion in June, but we’re seeing more multiple bets from Wayne than ever before and with the new staking system on some of the singles too, it feels a very different service from that of previous years.  Fingers crossed Wayne’s new approach will pay off soon.

So, for the month in total, only two of the six tipsters in action actually made a profit, but such were the extent of those from MVS (Lite) it was actually a very decent month.

June’s Betting: ROI 11.75%, ROC 7.83%

Chasemaster: Staked 16pts, -1.3pts, ROI -8.12%, ROC -1.3%

Jason James: Staked 95pts, +11.591pts, ROI 12.2%, ROC 5.79%.

MVS (Lite): Staked 96pts, +53.175pts, ROI 55.39%, ROC 53.175%.

Northern Monkey: Staked 137.25pts, -4.576pts, ROI -3.33%, ROC -5.72%.

Racing Tipster B: Staked 97pts, -2.17pts, ROI -19.16%, ROC -1.08%.

Pinpoint Gold: Staked 100.8pts, -19.32pts, ROI -19.16%, ROC -3.86%.

 

Rowan photo

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