The Beauty of BOG – make the most of it whilst you can.

Jason James sent an email out to members this week, part of which I found particularly interesting, simply because it addressed something that I have often wondered about.

We all understand about the necessity of finding value if we are to bet profitably, right?  I get that, but what I have more difficulty getting my head around is what price represents value.  I know Racing Tipster A has in the past, pointed out that the horses he finds that are backed in after the on course market opens are highly profitable, and even if taking SP profitability remains strong.  This means that he could tip a horse at say, 10/1, but even if it opens on course at 8s and is backed in further to 6s, the 6s is still worth taking.  Would I take 6s ten minutes after a tip has been issued at 10s?  No, I wouldn’t.

Jason attacked this issue of value very succinctly: “Value to me is in the eye of the beholder a bit like the beauty I see in my missis as I see her as the most beautiful person i have ever seen for one reason or another while other people may see her as just plain pug ugly!”

Value is in the eye of the beholder!  And I guess that those that have an “eye” for value are those that make money.  It is those tipsters that can be accurate in their subjective calculations and estimations that will make us money in the long term.

On another point, I have noticed that I have benefited from the BOG concession with Jason’s tips recently.  The latest winner to get a boost in price from BOG was Suzi’s Connoisseur, tipped up at 6/1 and going off at 9/1 on Tuesday.

The issue of BOG and it’s application to a tipster’s performance record was something at the forefront of my mind after writing a review of a service that you can read in the latest SBC Betting Magazine which was released on Friday.  You can see quite clearly the benefits that having BOG can bring, but as punters who expect to win, I believe that we have to view BOG as something of a bonus and not something we can rely upon in the long term.  With my new set of accounts I’m certainly pleased to have the concession as a temporary part of my armoury, but know it can’t and won’t last.  That said, I am taking every conceivable effort to extend it’s lifespan for as long as possible, spreading bets around bookmakers like you wouldn’t believe.  So far, so good.

Let’s  make BOG hay whilst the sun shines, and if you’re just starting out on your betting adventure, make the most of it whilst you can!

Betting from Saturday February 11th to Friday February 17th

A small step backwards this week.

Jason James continues in fine form, with Saturday netting 13.7 points of profit and Thursday 12.4 points.  Highlight of the week was probably a 2 point win bet (the standard is 1 point) on Outer Space – Chelmsford – 8/1.

It was a second consecutive good week for MVS (Lite) and anyone playing the old doubles system with this service should have made a decent profit over the last few days too.

Nasty losses though for Chasemaster and Pinpoint Golf however, meant the week produced an overall loss – ROI -12.8%, ROC -1.57%.

Here are the figures for the month to date:

Chasemaster: Staked 18pts, -9.25pts.

Jason James: Staked 70pts, +47.41pts.

MVS (Lite): Staked 28pts, +8.33pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 25pts, -3.92pts.

Racing Tipster A: Staked 3.75pts, +0.75pts.

Racing Tipster B: Staked 46pts, 2.05pts.

Pinpoint Golf: Staked 95.25pts, -26.3pts.

Football Service 1: Staked 6pts, +1.04pts.

February’s performance to date: ROI 4.62%, ROC 1.17%.

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First introduced in early 2015, the Bet Diary Pro provides even more on the practical realities of following tipsters to make money betting including:

  • Exclusive extra analysis on my betting portfolio and ongoing betting journey;
  • The EXACT identities of each of the tipsters I follow to make money betting;
  • Access to all SBC reviews, ratings and recommendations for each tipster;
  • Access to several major discounts/trials on the tipsters I follow;
  • Access to the SBC Tipping Forum and several free profitable tipsters.

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Serious investment or playing for kicks?

Do you want to bet to make money, or do you want to simply do it for fun?  In other words, do you really care about what you are betting on as long as you make a profit, or do you only want to put bets into markets you know something about or have a real interest in?

These are really good questions to ask yourself.

The “fun” is in counting up the profit

I have bet on some really “strange” things in my time; Eastern European women’s netball, Hungarian Division 2 football…you name it, I’ve probably bet on it.  Now I do like my footie, but I’m no expert on the Hungarian leagues!  But I really couldn’t have cared a less about this when I placed my bet.  My trust was with a tipster who did know about Hungarian football, and I was placing the bet with the aim of beating the book.

I DO have a strong interest in English Premiership football, but even now, a very small proportion of my bets concern this league.  This is a sport that the bookies are all over.  They take millions of pounds and euros, not to mention yen, yuan and rupees over in Asia, and they therefore pour huge resources into making sure they price up the matches accurately.  To eke out a profit in Premier League football, you really do need to know your stuff.  Creating an edge in these markets is incredibly difficult, and therefore I’d rather be investing my money into markets which are considerably easier to gain an advantage.

So if you don’t like betting on tennis, but you find a tipster with a long-term proven edge in the sport, why would you not follow?  We’re betting simply to make money, aren’t we?

The bottom line is all that counts

The reality is that the bottom line is all that should matter to us.  Yes, of course you must examine the tipster you’re considering following to ensure the practicalities are in line with your own personal circumstances.  Can you get the bets on promptly and secure the right prices?  But if they do, and you can, then whether or not you like the sport you’re betting on really is an irrelevance.

Pre-conceptions are dangerous things.  Pre-conceptions are generated through personal experience.  Just because you find it nearly impossible to identify a horse with four working legs, never mind one that is capable of running fast enough in the conditions to have a chance of winning the race, can’t put you off utilizing the expertise of someone who can.

Let’s face it, an awful lot of people go to work to do jobs they don’t particularly enjoy doing.  But they go anyway, because at the end of the week or month, they get a payslip and money goes into their account.  It’s the same with betting.  Don’t go putting on any blinkers you don’t need to wear.

Betting from February 1st to Friday February 10th

A good start to the month, building on January’s success.

Last Saturday was a spectacular day for Jason James as he nailed a 33/1 winner (Ballythomas – Musselburgh).  The guy’s ROC figures are now at a ridiculously high level for the time he has been tipping commercially.  Extremely impressive stuff.

Elsewhere it has really been a case of solid accumulation.  The only other really notable winner was provided by Racing Service A, again last Saturday, in the shape of Baie Des Iles – 8/1 – Punchestown.  But you know what?  I like solid accumulation. I really do.

Here are the figures for the month:

Chasemaster: Staked 11pts, -2.25pts.

Jason James: Staked 40.5pts, +24.26pts.

Morning Value Service (Lite): Staked 16pts, +2.5pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 13.5pts, -2.55pts.

Racing Service A: Staked 2pts, +2.5pts.

Racing Service B: Staked 22.5pts, +6.6pts.

Football Service 1: Staked 5pts, +2.04pts.

Pinpoint Golf: Staked 29.25pts, +0.75pts)

February’s performance to date: ROI 21.11%, ROC 2.74%.

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Take Your Betting Up A Notch With The Bet Diary PRO!

If you enjoy reading these free Bet Diary posts, then you can gain access to my more detailed, professional betting blog (Bet Diary Pro) as a Secret Betting Club member.

First introduced in early 2015, the Bet Diary Pro provides even more on the practical realities of following tipsters to make money betting including:

  • Exclusive extra analysis on my betting portfolio and ongoing betting journey;
  • The EXACT identities of each of the tipsters I follow to make money betting;
  • Access to all SBC reviews, ratings and recommendations for each tipster;
  • Access to several major discounts/trials on the tipsters I follow;
  • Access to the SBC Tipping Forum and several free profitable tipsters.

Access to the Bet Diary Pro is available right away with either a Silver, Gold or Platinum Secret Betting Club membership.

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January Review – a good, solid start to 2017

Flippin’ ‘eck!  How quickly does time go by?  It only seems a minute ago since it was Christmas!

So the first month of our betting year is complete, and a very nice, profitable month it has been too.  Of the eight services in the portfolio, only one made a loss, and when this happens progress is always going to be fairly smooth.  That’s how January has felt – smooth.  There were no massive dips in performance, no big drawdowns.  Just an easy path to profit, and I love it when it’s like this.  It makes the game feel easy.

But of course the game is anything but easy.  There will be testing times to come.  It’s not a matter of if, but when.  No point in losing any sleep though.  Let’s just enjoy a good run whilst it lasts.

January’s Figures

The total figures for January’s betting are: ROI 17.61%, ROC 7.42%.

The outstanding performer of the month was undoubtedly Northern Monkey.  Puzzlingly, when I look at the service’s official results, I seem to have staked an extra half a point. Goodness knows where that was!  My return of +22.66 points is 1.57 points greater than Wayne’s record, highlighting again the fair price settlement policy that he employs.  ROI 41.45%, ROC 28.33%.

Jason James year got off to a flying start.  After the first week/ten days, things slowed a little for him, but nevertheless a strong profit was made through the month as a whole.  Without giving away too much, his February has got off to a similarly explosive start, so let’s hope for more of the same through the next few weeks.  Notably introduced a subtly different odds recording policy and any move to make a service more follower friendly is to be admired.  It was this service too, that I benefited most from having new bookmaker accounts to use, with BOG concession included.  My figures of +25.41 points profit are on a different level to Jason’s non-BOG applied official result of +13.64 points, and 1.22 points more than Jason’s figures with BOG applied.  This pleases me immensely!  ROI 18.28%, ROC 12.57%.

The Morning Value (Lite) service is one that can make a profit in what I would describe as a ‘stealthy’ fashion.  Backing at the front end of the market and to level stakes means that there are never any spectacular wins.  So when profit accumulates, it’s done quietly.  There’s a lot to be said for this – it’s easy on the old ticker!  ROI 20.61%, ROC 7.63%.  

January tends to be a relatively quiet month for Racing Service A, lying as it does between the frenzy of Christmas racing in December and the Cheltenham Festival in March.  It is when winter is at it’s darkest and deepest too, with desperate ground conditions often the norm.  Exacerbating the issue is the tipster finding the midweek markets too weak to tip into, which I feel is a constant source of frustration to him.  In an effort to counter a lack of betting turnover a little, he is looking to issue more ‘Top Picks’, ie. horses at shorter prices that he doesn’t feel he can issue as an official tip because of the price, but which he feels have a darned good chance of winning.  I will add these to my official figures moving forwards from this point – their record is outstanding.  Despite the small number of bets, it was a successful month.  ROI 51.79%, ROC 7.25%.

It was a similarly quiet month for the Football Service 1.  Just 11 bets issued, turnover no doubt effected by the third and fourth rounds of the FA Cup reducing the number of league games played.  Still, a good profit returned.  ROI 32.63%, ROC 7.18%.

Back to horse racing and it has been a solid enough start to the year for Racing Service B.  It’s still not reaching the spectacular heights of the past, but a definite return to form this month.  If he can maintain this gathering momentum through February, then I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see a massive month posted in the near future.  Who knows, it could even be this month.  ROI 11.61%, ROC 5.81.

A more or less break even month for Chasemaster.  ROI 4.03%, ROC 1.63%.

And finally, the only bum note for January – Pinpoint Golf.  Not a disastrous month by any means and with the Tours getting into full swing now, there’s a lot of betting action to look forward to.  I am giving serious consideration to incorporating the Top 10 and Top 20 bets that are issued but which don’t go down on the ‘official’ slate.  I can see their value in that they should theoretically cut down the losing runs that are an inevitable part of golf betting, and their historical performance is strong.  It would necessitate a change in bank/staking, so some thought necessary before taking the plunge.  ROI -15.37%, ROC -7.43%.

Until next time.

Rowan Day

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Take Your Betting Up A Notch With The Bet Diary PRO!

If you enjoy reading these free Bet Diary posts, then you can gain access to my more detailed, professional betting blog (Bet Diary Pro) as a Secret Betting Club member.

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  • Exclusive extra analysis on my betting portfolio and ongoing betting journey;
  • The EXACT identities of each of the tipsters I follow to make money betting;
  • Access to all SBC reviews, ratings and recommendations for each tipster;
  • Access to several major discounts/trials on the tipsters I follow;
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Getting used to losing.

Let’s say this straight up:  if you plan or have started to put your betting on a more professional basis, you are still going to experience a lot of losing.  It is very likely that your losing days will outnumber your winning days, and it is a 100% certainty that you will have more losing bets than winning ones.

With this in mind, you need to get used to losing…fast!

The brain is wired up wrong for long-term success.

Following numerous scientific studies into the effects that the gambling process has on the brain, it appears that we are not really wired up in such a way that makes focusing on the long term a naturally easy thing to do.  And yet, as you have no doubt read many, many times already, if we are to make a success of our betting, we simply must ignore the short term trends and concentrate on the long term.  We have a betting conundrum on our hands.

The fact is that, in layman’s terms, the mental impact of a losing bet is greater and lasts for longer than the impact of a winning bet.  So how do we cope when we know we will have more losers than winners?

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Don’t ignore the potential downsides.

A very easy trap to fall into is to believe that if you set your betting portfolio up properly, if you calculate the correct levels of staking and ensure your portfolio is nicely diversified, and your betting banks are all lined up…that good results will naturally follow.  Effective planning can often lead to a false sense of security.  It is human nature to underestimate the chances of failure when setting out on a new venture.

So start asking yourself some serious questions, and think deeply about the answers.  And be truthful with yourself when asking the following questions:

  • How patient am I?
  • How will I deal with it if I don’t start making a profit for a few months?
  • How much can I lose?
  • How will I react if all my services have a losing month together?
  • How will I react if I sign up to a new service and they make a loss over the first six months?

All tipsters have losing runs.  That’s why it is so important to set up your betting banks conservatively – it is your bank that will act as a comfort blanket through the bad times.  But you must acknowledge that you may be really unfortunate in joining a service just as he or she embarks upon one of those losing runs.  It’s not likely, but it could happen, and you need to be mentally strong enough to cope with this.

I would also strongly recommend that as you start your betting, you keep a note of your worst losing runs.  This means that when things go bad in the future, you can compare current performance with bad times in the past.  You will be able to see your worst case scenarios and this in itself will make you more understanding of the losing runs as they hit.  To my mind, this is why experience is such a huge asset in betting – what you have to accept is that there is only one way to gain that experience.

Betting from Saturday 21st January to Friday 27th January

Well after so much profit making, I knew I was due a correction of some sort, and last week, that is precisely what happened.  No service bombed out completely, although Pinpoint Golf came closest to doing so, losing 23 points of the 38 staked,  Generally though, it was more a case of each service losing a little and the losses mounting up.

The honourable exception was Football Service A who came up with three winners from five bets for a 2.59 point profit.

Here are the figures for the month:

Chasemaster: Staked 22pts, -3.55pts.

Jason James: Staked 117.5pts, +11.941pts.

Morning Value Service (Lite): Staked 34pts, +4.375pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 48.16pts, +29.155pts.

Racing Service A: Staked 5.75pts, +1.125pts.

Racing Service B: Staked 99pts, +10.608pts.

Football Service A: Staked 8pts, +2.59pts.

Pinpoint Golf: Staked 65.162pts, -5pts.

January’s performance to date: ROI 18.81%, ROC 6.69%.

Until next time, good luck with your betting!

Rowan Day

Rowan photo

 

Take Your Betting Up A Notch With The Bet Diary PRO!

If you enjoy reading these free Bet Diary posts, then you can gain access to my more detailed, professional betting blog (Bet Diary Pro) as a Secret Betting Club member.

First introduced in early 2015, the Bet Diary Pro provides even more on the practical realities of following tipsters to make money betting including:

  • Exclusive extra analysis on my betting portfolio and ongoing betting journey;
  • The EXACT identities of each of the tipsters I follow to make money betting;
  • Access to all SBC reviews, ratings and recommendations for each tipster;
  • Access to several major discounts/trials on the tipsters I follow;
  • Access to the SBC Tipping Forum and several free profitable tipsters.

Access to the Bet Diary Pro is available right away with either a Silver, Gold or Platinum Secret Betting Club membership.

Subscribe Now & Gain Instant Access!

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Ah, those were the days….

I used to love betting shops. I loved the smell, the atmosphere, the almost tangible pall of silent desperation as ‘Racing Posts’ were pored over by all and sundry in the increasingly urgent search for a winner…any winner.  I’m going back about 25 years here, before the bookies’ offices became what they are now – full of FOBT machines and no smoking allowed.  They were choc-full of characters; the old geezer who, judging by the smell coming off him, had done a runner from a badly run care home and who was using the shop as a refuge. As long as he remained undetected, he was going to make the most of his freedom!  Then there was the overweight thirty-something with his tie halfway down his neck and shirt untucked, chewing gum loudly and invading your personal space as he read the racecards pinned to the wall.  I remember this guy well.  Many times I tried desperately to avoid eye contact because whenever I made the mistakeof even just nodding acknowledgement of his presence, he’d bore me for what seemed like hours with boasts of his sexual prowess, capacity to sink 12 pints, ability to down the hottest curry in the Jai Kathmandhu, and his latest winning bets that had landed him thousands.  I couldn’t help but think at the time that with all these winners, he really could afford to jack in the call centre that was paying him below the minimum wage, but he never seemed to quite be brave enough!

The point I’m making though, is that these filthy, smoke-filled dens of iniquity were full of characters, and I miss them.

I worked in betting office once. Briefly.

I was 16 and took a pathetic pride in the fact that I was able to get a bet on without being asked for ID. I swear the guy behind the counter – Eamonn, if I remember rightly – knew full well I was underage, but these were the days before I had the self-awareness to accept that as far as picking winners was concerned, I was pretty clueless.  I was contributing to the shop’s income with an admirable consistency.  Far from banning me for a couple of years, Eamonn always seemed pleased to see me!

Anyway, I walked in one day to find that Sid, the guy who wrote the odds for each horse in each race and the results as they were announced on a great big whiteboard, was off sick.  So myself and a mate of mine volunteered our services.  I can honestly say it is the hardest job I have ever done.  Listening to all the info coming through on the old SIS radio broadcasts, writing up odds, keeping results up to speed, and trying to place a bet amongst it all?  I lasted ten minutes!  And it wasn’t just me – my mate was as bad.  Even with the two of us, we just couldn’t keep up with the pace of it all.  So my career in bookmaking lasted from the start of the first race of the day to the result coming in for the second.

So what has this trip down memory lane got to do with running a betting portfolio twenty odd years later, you may ask?  Well, perhaps most importantly, it’s a good idea to know the limits of your abilities if you want to be in this game for the long term. When I first started following tipsters, I quickly forgot that I couldn’t pick a winner to save my life, and regularly threw in my own bets based on my own (usually wrong) assessment of a race. It meant my tipsters were making money, but I wasn’t, or at least not as much as I should have been making. Secondly, it wasn’t until I learnt what my strengths were and started playing to them that I started to make money consistently.  And lastly, I reckon it’s probably a good idea to give things a little time to work out.  Longer than I gave my job in the bookies, anyway.

Betting from Saturday 14th January to Friday 20th January

Another really strong week.  It’s all very nice when things go as smoothly as they have been doing since the start of the year.  This last week ran at an ROI of 40.86% and added another 9.93% to the bank.

Top of the Pops last week was Northern Monkey, and Top of the Pops this week was….Northern Monkey!

A superbly consistent week’s betting from NMP and a masterclass in staking.  Most of the week’s 17 points profit came from bets that were staked a little more heavily than the norm, plus a nice winning double.

The good form of Morning Value Service (Lite) continued with another four winners to add 6.75 points of profit, and Racing Service A came good with a lovely winner on Friday at 20/1 to bring January into profit overall.  Let’s hope he builds on that and gathers some momentum.

Pinpoint Golf has started the year well with another 13 points boosting the coffers, although reading his weekly performance review I wish I’d backed the Top 10 and Top 20 market selections as they had a stormer!

The only negative this week was Jason James who struggled a little, but who has still posted strong figures for the month to date.

Here are the figures for the month:

Chasemaster: Staked 16pts, -0.05pts.

Jason James: Staked 87.5pts, +20.141pts.

Morning Value Service (Lite): Staked 27pts, +9.125pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 35.16pts, +34.373pts.

Racing Service A: Staked 5pts, +0.625pts.

Racing Service B: Staked 68.5pts, +14.283pts.

Football Service 1: Staked 3pts, n/a.

Pinpoint Golf: Staked 27.162pts, +18pts.

January’s performance to date: ROI 40.86%, ROC 9.93%.

 

Getting your “money head” straight.

In the last post we talked about getting the fundamentals right when setting up your betting portfolio.  The first fundamental we considered, quite naturally, was about picking the right tipsters and not taking an unnecessary gamble with exactly who you decide to follow.  The point being made was that whilst there are so many good services available, that are professionally run and proven to be profitable to the SBC, that there was no reason at all to look for tipsters elsewhere.

This is just the start though.  There are other considerations that should be given due attention before you take the plunge and start betting, and one such important consideration is what I want to talk about in this post.

Financial management

It is essential to know, before you start, how much you will be staking on each selection your tipster provides you with.  This means being crystal clear in your own mind exactly what proportion of your overall betting bank you are dedicating to the service, how many points that bank consists of, and what the monetary value of that point is, ie. your £/point or €/point.

Say you have decided to follow four tipsters and for ease of figures have £8,000 available as a betting bank.  It is my opinion that when starting out it is sensible to share your resources equally between the tipsters you are following, so in this case, £2,000 per service.

So you’ve read the reviews in the SBC’s betting magazines and have settled upon the four services you wish to sign up to.  Within those reviews you will have noted the recommended points betting bank that the SBC suggest.  From there it’s easy to calculate your stakes for each service.

Let’s say we have a portfolio that looks something like this:

Service 1: recommended bank of 100 points.

Service 2: recommended bank of 80 points.

Service 3: recommended bank of 50 points.

Service 4: recommended bank of 100 points.

For Services 1 and 4 we’ll be backing at £20/point, ie. £2,000/100.  So if Service 1 – a horse racing service – advises a bet carrying a stake of 0.5 points each way, our stake will be £10 each way.

And so on…Service 2 will carry a stake of £25/point, and Service 3 £40/point.  Easy.

Having a clear vision.

All of this sounds (and is) extremely straightforward and obvious.  But, I feel strongly that this basic exercise is something you must do before you actually start betting.  It is essential that as you carry on with your betting, that you keep your mind as focused and as clear as it possibly can be.  If you don’t, you will find that you grow more vulnerable to making rash decisions when things go badly, which they inevitably will from time to time.

I remember not long after I started betting “properly” that I went through a bad run.  It was then that I started messing about with my staking making basic mistakes such as reducing the stakes of the services that were losing and increasing the stakes of those that were doing ok.  Of course the inevitable then happens and I subsequently understake the services that had been losing but recover, and was staking more on the services that were doing ok but then went through a poor patch!  You’ll be amazed how common a mistake this is to make!

If you have your financial plan absolutely set in stone (and put it in writing too, as it helps to focus the mind) then it is easier to keep your mind clear and thinking rationally when the testing times begin. I can’t emphasise strongly enough how much success in betting is reliant on a consistent and clear mental approach…so start as you mean to go on!

Betting from Friday 6th January to Friday 13th January

It’s been an excellent week that produced an ROI of 31.94% and bank growth of 2.69%.

The top performer was Northern Monkey who came up with a stormer on Tuesday (Gracious Tom – Southwell – 11/2).  It wasn’t the odds that made the bet, but the staking of 0.75pts on the win and 0.5pts on the place.  Nice.  Thursday also produced the goods (Final Venture – Meydan – 10/1) , but these two horses were merely the highlights – there were other winners.

Morning Value Service enjoyed a very strong week with numerous (five) winners to push it into profit for the month and Chasemaster poked it’s nose out of the red and into the black on the back of a couple of winners too.

In fact the only services not showing a profit so far in 2017 are Football Service 1 which has had just the one bet so far, and Racing Service A which has hardly been prolific with it’s tipping either.

Here are the figures for the month to date:

Chasemaster: Staked 10pts, +0.45pts.

Jason James: Staked 57.5pts, +33.891pts.

Morning Value Service (Lite): Staked 17pts, +2.375pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 22.66pts, +17.302pts.

Racing Service A: Staked 2.375pts, -2.375pts.

Racing Service B: Staked 35pts, +14.533pts.

Football Service 1: Staked 1pt, -1pt.

Pinpoint Golf: Staked 14.625pts, +5pts.

January’s performance to date: ROI 38.4%, ROC 5.55%.

The New Year – always a good time to get things right!

If you’ve read my previous posts on this blog, I would like to think that you might have picked up on what is something of a recurring theme – that to bet successfully and with a view to making a profit over time, you need to set yourself up right. Yes, that relates to your mentality.  Without a professional and realistic attitude, you have no chance.  But setting yourself up correctly also refers to the basic mechanics of your betting too.

Getting the fundamentals right

What do these mechanics consist of?  Well, there’s no mystery to them.  It’s just the fundamentals.  Following the right tipsters, having access to the best odds on each bet, taking measures to ensure you maximise the lifespan of your bookmaker accounts, keeping proper records, etc.

Let’s attack the very first of these points; following the right tipsters.

No need to take a risky punt

From talking to a lot of SBC members over the years, something I hear time and time again is that before making a conscious decision to raise the professionalism of their betting, people would waste money subscribing to tipsters who either had no real talent or were perhaps simply rip-off merchants.

I know I certainly wasted a lot of time and effort following the betting advice of some of these dubious characters.  After a while, I became so cynical that even when I discovered the SBC, it took me ages to actually sign up.  Seriously, I deliberated for months, all the while still trying to find tipsters that were honest, professional, and who possessed some sort of real edge over the bookmakers.  In the end, I thought blow this, and took the plunge with the SBC.

Now, looking back, I wonder what on earth I had delayed for.  In fact now, I can never see the point of paying to join a tipster that isn’t monitored and recommended by the SBC.  I’m sure there are services out there that are not proofing their selections to the SBC, and who are professional and produce a profit.  But why take the risk involved in guessing who these might be?  What’s the point?  On the one hand we have a large number of tipsters who have, over a long period of time, PROVEN themselves to be honest and profitable, and who we KNOW run their service extremely professionally and in a customer-focused way.  On the other, we see claims in adverts – some of which may be true – but we have absolutely no way of finding out whether they are or not before handing over some hard-earned.  So why take the risk?  As a serious bettor, we have to be always minimising risk, and to me, it seems a no-brainer to do that with every aspect of our betting operation.

Easy to find the best tipsters, so why risk doing anything else?

Take the SBC’s Tipster Profit Reports.  Published at regular intervals throughout the year, they tell us immediately who the best tipsters in the market are and how they’ve been performing.  They contain tables showing annual profits, recent form, how easy or difficult it is for members to secure the advised odds on each service’s selections, how much betting bank growth they have provided, and vitally, how long a period of time they’ve proven to have been profitable.  I know that the latest Report has just been released.  Anyone looking to start their 2017 betting journey on the right foot in terms of who they follow would find this extremely valuable reading, I’m sure.

With all this information so readily available, and updated frequently, why oh why would anyone take a punt on some tipster who doesn’t proof their bets anywhere, whose adverts we have to gamble on being honest and accurate in the claims they make, and that for all we know the odds may last just seconds before tumbling after bet release so that you could never realistically replicate their claimed results anyway?!?

We’ll be taking a look over the other “fundamentals” in a series of posts moving forward, but if you make only one New Year’s betting resolution, make it the one that says you’ll stop taking daft and unnecessary risks when it comes to stumping up to pay your subs to a tipster.  Just play it safe, and follow the tried and tested.

Betting from Monday 2nd January – Thursday 5th January

A good midweek, with the portfolio running at an excellent ROI of 39.79% and generating a further bank growth of 1.63%.

Top of the Hit Parade has been Northern Monkey who has had a storming last couple of days after what had been a very quiet week.  Wednesday’s sole bet was a winner (Petite Jack – Lingfield – 9/4) and on Thursday we had three winners from six bets including a stormer at Wolves (Zac Brown – 12/1).  This was the first time that having BOG again on my new accounts really paid off as the horse was originally tipped at 9/1.

Racing Service B came up trumps on Thursday too (Misbah – Meydan – 9/1) which contributed to a total of 10.25 points profit since Monday.  Jason James consolidated his spectacular start to the year by adding another 3 points of profit and it was only Chasemaster and Morning Value Service (Lite) that gave up a loss, albeit a modest one.  No bets at all from Racing Service A.

Figures for the month to date:

Chasemaster: Staked 3pts, -3pts.

Jason James: Staked 27pts, +37.925pts.

Morning Value Service (Lite): Staked 9pts, -5.75pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 10.25pts, +8.97pts.

Racing Service A: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.

Racing Service B: Staked 18pts, +4.95pts

January’s performance to date: ROI 47.86%, ROC 2.83%.

Getting Ready – 2017 Here We Come!

Taking a break from it all

Well, I guess that’s Christmas over for another year.  Got to say, I enjoyed mine.  As I’d previously mentioned in these pages, I went away for the duration of the festivities, down to deepest, darkest Devon.  A lovely little place on the coast, lovely pub, great food and ale.  As a direct result, I’ve returned (two days ago) 100% refreshed and highly motivated to get the next betting year going.

If you run a portfolio of betting tipsters, you’ll know how much hard work goes into it on a daily basis, and I can’t recommend strongly enough getting away from it all every now and then.  But I do mean getting away from it!  Just putting the odd bet on here and there, dipping your toes into the betting waters…this is what I used to do whenever I went on holiday.  I was always really worried that I might miss some tipster or other bagging their yearly profit in the few days I was away, tipping winner after winner at double figure prices.  Well, you know what?  It never worked like that, and I learnt that the benefits of having a complete break from things was by far a better way to go.

It is a common misconception held by those that don’t really understand what running a betting portfolio involves, that it’s dead easy.  Get some tips through, place your bets, count the winnings (or losses).  But as we know, things are not that easy – a long way from it in fact.  Securing the best odds possible is absolutely essential, but doing so with the planning and forethought necessary to keep bookmaker accounts viable for as long as possible means this is in itself a far from straightforward task.

Then there’s the losing runs to cope with.  There are more losing days than winning ones, and the way the brain is wired means that the negative mental impact on most individuals is felt far more by the downs than the “ups” we feel after we’ve won.  This is a subject I intend to write more on in the near future, but for now, suffice to say that the mental toll betting every day can inflict is considerable.

All of this is why, having not placed a bet for nearly three weeks, I feel beautifully refreshed and raring to go again.

Getting ready for 2017

Just because I didn’t place a bet however, doesn’t mean to say I didn’t spend some time thinking about the way to best attack 2017’s betting.  I needed to be brutally honest with myself, aware that one of my faults is perhaps to sometimes persevere with something too long as opposed to facing up to the fact that for whatever reason, it wasn’t working for me.

Two examples of this relates to two of the football betting services I’ve been following.  Both excellent services, but try as I might, I was consistently missing out on acceptable odds.  I’ve absolutely no doubt these services will work for some, but at the times I’m able to put bets on (or more significantly, the times I can’t), neither service was working for me.  I’ve also stopped placing the MVS (Doubles) bets, but am certainly persevering with the MVS (Lite) singles.

The other thing I’ve done is open new accounts at some of the best known bookmakers, ready for the New Year.  I wonder how long BOG will last?  I’ll be sorely disappointed if I can’t make it last some considerable time.  I know what to do to keep under the radar for as long as possible and I see extending the life of my accounts as a personal challenge.

Other than that, it’s business as usual.

And so just one day’s betting to report upon; that of Sunday 1st January, 2017…

Reading yesterday’s update email from Jason James, it was interesting to see that I’d missed a large part of what has been a bad run for him in December (I’ve not checked other tipster’s results – no doubt I’ve missed profits elsewhere to compensate!?!).  Yesterday however, he showed more spark than the London New Year fireworks, and by doing so, immediately wiped out his recent losses and then some.  Five horses were tipped, four of them won.  Two of them were doubled up and carrying a 2 point stake (Superb Story – Musselburgh – 2/1 and Shearian – Southwell – 3/1), a bet which in itself produced 22 points profit.  To add to that were a lovely winner at Catterick (Snowed In – 7/1 but Rule 4 deduction applicable) and again at Musselburgh (Cold March – 6/1).  That’s the tipping equivalent of Olivier Giroud’s goal yesterday, and what a way to get 2017 up and running!

No joy elsewhere, sadly.  Just a couple of placed horses from each way bets.

Chasemaster: Staked 1pt, -1pt.

Jason James: Staked 6.5pts, +34.925pts.

MVS (Lite): Staked 1pt, -1pt.

Northern Monkey: Staked 3.5pts, -1.5pts.

Racing Service A: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.

Racing Service B: Staked 8pts, -5.4pts.

January’s performance to date: ROI 67.6%, ROC 1.23%.

Can’t imagine that ROI figure will stay that high for too long, more’s the pity! 🙂

Until next time…

What’s this betting lark all about? Is it business, or pleasure?

Ahoy there!

So, how’s things going?  Ready for Christmas?

Ok, then.  We’ve started to explore some of the things that we must do to set up a sturdy portfolio of betting tipsters to give ourselves the best chance of making a good level of ongoing profit.  There’s a lot more detail we’ll be going into, but before we do, I want to ask you something…

Have you actually sat back and thought about exactly what it is you’re trying to achieve with your betting?

You know a lot of people I talk to tell me that when they started out trying to raise their level when it came to their betting, they had no real target or specific aim in mind.  This always seems strange to me.  I see setting up and running a betting portfolio very much the same as setting up and running a new business.   Would you start a business without first thinking long and hard about how you would go about growing and developing that business, and to what end?  I would like to think not.

Similarly, I’d like to think we’d all draw up a proper business plan before embarking on our adventure.  This would especially be the case if we intended to raise start up funds by means of a business loan.  In fact, if we didn’t, there’d be absolutely no hope of getting that loan, let’s face it.

Set Realistic Financial Targets

So something I’d strongly recommend to anyone starting to build a tipster portfolio is to take some time to really think things through.  Set some realistic financial targets, and write down exactly how you intend to reach them.  It’s important you commit these thoughts to paper.  It will provide a tangible and ongoing reminder of why you are doing what you are doing.  In my experience, it will help keep you on the straight and narrow path of betting righteousness through the tough times when you’ll be tempted to veer off your course by the various demons that will be letting themselves known to you – chase losses, try a new tipster, don’t worry about having a big enough betting bank, drop that tipster as he’s had a bad month (but several successful years!), etc., etc.

Look.  You are going to go through some very testing times.  There is no escaping them.  Indeed, you will go through more loss making and flatlining spells than winning ones, and they will undoubtedly test your resolve.  Having a written “mission statement” as such, will help you through those testing times, believe me.

50% Is Not To Be Sniffed At

What is very important however, when you’re setting your targets, is to be realistic.  If not, you’ll only add to the pressures involved in this project, and that’s the last thing you want to be doing.  Personally, I’d always say that you should aim for an annual Return on Capital (i.e. the percentage of your original investment you make as profit or loss) of 50%.

Some will say that 50% is rubbish.  Don’t believe them.  If you were to invest £1,000 this year, isn’t making £500 from that initial investment a darned good return?  Of course it is.  And you know what, you might well make much more – hopefully so – but if not, then you’re not setting yourself up for a psychological fall.

So, be realistic, set targets you have a good chance of hitting, and commit everything to paper (or to a Word document at least).  Write your business plan, and you’ve already done something that I imagine 99.9% of bettors don’t.  And let’s face it, we want to be one of the 0.1%, do we not?  We want to be one of the very few that actually make a good profit from betting.  So let’s start on the right, professional, footing.

 

November Review

November has felt like a really difficult month’s betting.  Almost all the services followed have gone through a really bad spell.  Some have produced a small profit but in general, almost every tipster has, to some extent, struggled.  The only exception really is Football Service B whose System has come up with the goods (ROI of 17.1%).

I’ve got to say I’ve found it tough going.   Perhaps it’s a combination of too many tipsters showing poor form and dark mornings and dark afternoons.  I feel like I need a break from it all to recharge the batteries, which is perfectly natural.  Betting every day can become a bit of a grind, just as any job can.  Fortunately I will soon get the chance of a break as I’m going away over Christmas, escaping the shopping madness and crowds by renting a cottage on the Devon coast.  It should provide the perfect antidote to the winter blues.

But I digress.

In truth, November has, I believe, raised a number of questions relating to some of the services in the portfolio.  I’m not making any changes at this time, but I am thinking of tweaking a few things in time for the New Year.  For example, the Combo Racing Method is proving to be consistent, but does simply not throw up enough bets to justify my allocating it a separate bank.  I would like to continue putting some extra money on the selections it throws up, but I need to think about exactly how I will do this.  There are of course, other tipping services which would inevitably generate more Combo System bets but they’re not a part of my portfolio.

Racing Service B has had a very disappointing month, but I’ve no real concerns here, despite the fact that performance levels are not as we would wish them to be.  I certainly won’t be dropping them for 2017.

I may have to revisit the Morning Value Service (Doubles) strategy however.  Why?  Well, I just don’t particularly like placing doubles.  I’m the betting equivalent of a meat and two veg man – I like to keep things simple.  Northern Monkey isn’t shy of throwing in some doubles and it’s all getting a bit much.  No doubt I’d feel differently if the MVS (Doubles) hadn’t fared so poorly this month but even if December proves to be incredibly lucrative, I think I’ll likely drop this from the portfolio and redirect the funds allocated.

I also have a real concern about my ability to follow Football Service C bets into the New Year too.  This is no-one’s fault – it’s just that I have commitments when the bets come through and as a result I’m missing the odds too much.  I’m going to carry on for now and really think hard as to whether there’s a practical solution to the issue.

Other than that, there’s not too much to comment on.  The results aren’t here yet, but the first few days of December have already proved to be far more profitable and therefore enjoyable, so fingers crossed December will be a great month and the struggles of November can be quickly forgotten.

Overall then, November’s betting showed an ROI of -4.27%.  Let’s move quickly on…

Chasemaster: Staked 17pts, +2.625pts.

Jason James: Staked 91pts, +7.077pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 43pts, +2.31pts.

Racing Service A: Staked 11.75pts, +0.125pts.

Racing Service B: Staked 89.5pts, -32.45pts.

Morning Value Service (Lite): Staked 37pts, -5.41pts.

Morning Value Service (Doubles): Staked 34pts, -31pts.

Combo Racing System: Staked 10pts, +0.25pts.

Football Service A: Staked 36.6pts, +1.09pts.

Football Service B: Staked 23pts, +3.94pts.

Football Service C: Staked 41pts, -8.1pts.

Pinpoint Golf: Staked 187.5pts, -3.8pts.