Time provides perspective.

In my last post which reviewed the undoubtedly disappointing performance of the portfolio through April, I said that there are times when you just have to suck up losing and accept it for what it is.  What I meant by this was that instead of looking for reasons why the tipsters aren’t producing the goods, there are times when you must acknowledge that losing is a fundamental part of betting.  It cannot be avoided.

Often the passing of time provides you with a much greater sense of perspective.  You can look back at how the services are performing and see that the disappointing spells are nothing more than blips.  It’s the same when you look at your betting portfolio as a whole as it is when you are analyzing the performance graphs of a successful individual tipster.  You gain confidence from seeing a strong upward movement on the graph, demonstrating strong profits and tend to ignore the downward ‘bumps’, dismissing them as irrelevant.  However, when actually living through one of those irrelevant bumps, believe me, you feel it.  And the drawdown certainly doesn’t feel ‘irrelevant’ when you’re in the midst of it!

If we were to plot on a graph the performance of my own portfolio since the start of the year, plus those of the individual services within it, we would see a nice upward trend, a downward slant representing April, and now the beginnings of the next upswing.  Psychologically, January to March felt good, April was a pain in the ‘arris, and now confidence is returning as a number of the tipsters I follow have enjoyed good days and seem to be getting some form back.  Had I not actually lived through this however, and were coming to the graphs ‘cold’ and dispassionately, then I would think that the figures represented a good, strong set of tipping services that I’d gladly sign up to.  And that, of course, is because the time covered by the graphs has allowed me a sense of perspective.

What I’m trying to say, in a roundabout get-to-the-point-Rowan kind of way, is that you shouldn’t let the blips drag you down.  Try to stand back and give things time before judging anything too harshly (or too favourably).

Betting figures from Monday 1st May to Friday 12th May

Chasemaster: Staked 8.5pts, +9.05pts.

Jason James: Staked 38pts, -7.3pts.

Morning Value Service (Lite): Staked 31pts, -2.875pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 40.625pts, +10.542pts.

Racing Service B: Staked 34pts, +12.725pts.

Pinpoint Golf: Staked 75.5pts, -11.47pts.

Football Service 1: Staked 2pts, +2.45pts.

Total figures: ROI 12.63%, ROC 3.03%.

 

 

April Portfolio Review

My opening sentence of the March review went like this:

“Without a doubt the last couple of months have proven to be tricky ones for the racing tipsters in the portfolio.”

Well, April was not so much “tricky” for the racing services, as “blooming disastrous”.  Of the six racing tipsters, only one was profitable – Racing Service A.  Mind you, this month was also a barren one for the two sports services too and Racing Service A was in fact the only service in the entire portfolio to turn a profit.

April has simply been one of those months that we get from time to time.  Just as we occasionally get the joyous bumper months, we have to accept we’re going to get the odd crappy one too.  We have just to man-up and deal with them when they hit.  The overall ROC downside for the month is perfectly manageable and although there is certainly room for considerable improvement in terms of 2017 form from the racing tipsters in particular, there is no need to worry just yet.

April’s Figures

The total figures for April’s betting are: ROI -8.15%, ROC -4.53%.

Let’s start on the positive – Racing Service A rounded off their 2016/17 season with a good Aintree.  Although not a part of the service’s official figures, I always include the results from the Aintree Festival in mine.  I see no reason why not to.

Tipster A experimented with a new staking system over the three days’ racing, designed to provide more flexibility in the way he can recommend his tips.  I know too that he has been disappointed in the season’s balance sheet as a whole, and is looking at ways he can improve again next year.  A tweaked staking system is one of these ways.  ROI 81.25%, ROC 6.5%.

And rather more quickly than I would prefer, on to the losing services!…

To be fair to Football Service 1, it was essentially a break even month.  I know some football bettors prefer to take it very easy during April and May, either decreasing the size of their stakes or not placing any bets at all in the belief that with motivation for some teams being questionable in the latter stages of the season, the form can’t be relied upon.  Personally, I have always continued betting as normal, and it has been no different this season. ROI -0.5%, ROC -0.16%.

There was a wonderful Monday for Racing Service B back on the 24th, with three winners advised from three bets at 7s (x2) and 4s.  This rather rescued what had been threatening to be a pretty poor month.  It was a shame that Tipster B couldn’t kick on from that and into profit over the course of the week in April that remained.  ROI -5.95%, ROC -2.97%.

The theme of looking straight into the eyes of a disastrous month before pulling things around and ending with at least an air of respectability was also in evidence when we turn to look at Northern Monkey’s month.  A series of good winners spread over the last week or so meant that what had looked like a mountain of losses ended up as not being too serious at all.  We’re about to enter the period of the year – late-spring/midsummer – when Wayne has been traditionally at his best, so here’s hoping May will be a good’un.  ROI -5.12%, ROC -5.85%.

I had an enquiry from a Jason James follower recently, concerned at the service’s current losing run.  I think that with a relatively high turnover service such as this one, the losing runs can feel worse than if enduring a drawdown from a low action tipster.  It’s all psychological of course, but the nature of this particular type of beast means that when a losing run hits, it feels like you’re losing money at a rapid rate.  When we look at JJ’s April figures, they don’t make for great reading, but they are hardly disastrous.  We need to remember too that although it might feel as if we’re losing money at a rapid rate when we lose with a service like Jason James, we also win money quickly when the winners kick back in.  ROI -12.32%, ROC -7.24%.

Pinpoint Golf is currently doing a thorough examination of their figures – Liam, the tipster, is disappointed that the official numbers do not accurately reflect how the model he utilizes has been performing in general.  Reluctant to sit down and examine the data before he has a sizeable sample to analyze (sensible fellow), Liam is now comfortable to be more forensic about his figures and has been sending out some fascinating emails outlining his findings.  Fingers crossed he gets the official figures somewhere near where he wants them to be in the year ahead.  ROI -10.25%, ROC 7.25%.

It’s not been a great month for Morning Value LITE but not a lot needs to be said.  It will continue chugging away and I’m sure the results will follow.  ROI -10.64%, ROC -7.66%.

And finally Chasemaster, which has found the going riding soft, heavy in places recently.  They don’t seem to be getting much luck at present, and let’s hope the boys turn it around soon.  They don’t appear to be panicking, and nor am I.  ROI -36.98%, ROC -11.65%.

So there we have it.  It’s not rained for a while it seems, which means the ground will be drying out and hopefully the form will settle down too.  If so, May I’m sure, will be a lot better than April has been.

The dangers of losing and how to deal with them.

One of the tipsters in my portfolio is having rather a tough time of things at the moment.  All will become clear as to who when I post up my review of last month’s betting, which I plan to do this coming weekend.  I thought in the meantime though that I’d write a little on how losing affects us and the way we approach our betting.

Common mistakes to watch out for.

What I have found over the years is that a spell that sees us consistently lose, very often leads us to making mistakes with our betting.  I remember reading somewhere that our brains are wired up in such a way that the effect of a losing bet has a far bigger impact on our psyche than does a winning bet.  Put another way, we are likely to find it harder to maintain a mental equilibrium when we are losing money than when we are winning money.

So what are the common mistakes that we must be so aware of avoiding when we are enduring a slump in our betting?

From personal experience, the biggest temptation is to lower stakes.  We’re losing money, perhaps at a frightening pace, so our subconscious instructs us to slow down the rate of loss…and we can do that by not betting as much.  The trouble with this of course, is that when the tipster you’re following regains their form – or, more likely if they have a proven long term edge, they come out of a period of what is simply natural variance having an effect – you’re rate of recovery is much slower than your rate of loss.  To use a mathematical illustration, if your losing service loses 50 points and your stake per point is £10, then obviously your drawdown is £500.  If when you’re £500 down you reduce your stake/point to £5, then when the tipster regains those 50 points, you’ll only have made £250.  You’re still £250 down when you should be level.

Personally speaking, I would now rather give up following a tipster completely than reduce stakes.  But of course, that is another very common mistake made by those who are going through a tough time.  It is so, so easy to convince yourself that your tipster has lost his edge when in reality he has done no such thing.  During a prolonged losing spell, it is inevitable that doubts creep into our heads about what we see as the cause of our pain – ie. the tipster we’re following who seemingly has lost the ability to back a winner.

I’ve done it myself, and more than once…say enough is enough with a tipster, and then check up on that tipster’s performance a few months later to see that he has regained all the losses I suffered and had kicked on to start making good profit again.  It’s enough to make you seriously question whether or not betting is for you.  And to be quite honest, if this is something you do on a repetitive basis, then perhaps betting isn’t for you.

The importance of preparation

So how do you prevent yourself from falling into these traps?

The simple answer is prior preparation.  Set your betting off on the correct footing and you will better prepare yourself for the tough times.  Here is a quick checklist of things you should and shouldn’t do:

  • THE most important thing is not to bet with money you can’t afford to lose.
  • Separate your betting funds from your day to day living expenses.
  • Don’t chase big profit right from the start – far better to start slowly with your betting and by reinvesting profit, build up your betting steadily as you go along.
  • Don’t set your expectations too high – better to aim for 25% ROC and be pleased with 50% than set your target at 100% and be disappointed/frustrated with 50%.
  • Be conservative with your betting banks for each tipster, particularly in the beginning – if the recommended bank is 80 points, there’s no harm is assigning 100 points to a service.  Doing so will give you an extra cushion during a rough patch,
  • Research any service you are considering before you join – see what their historical drawdown figures are and how long they took to recover from.  It will provide your betting with a relevant context.

Of course, there does come a point when it is right to stop following a service.  Deciding when is a very difficult thing to do and can be the subject of a different blog post.

I hope you’ve found this post useful.  Back over the weekend with a round-up of a not-too-pretty April…

Bet Diary Profit Report (16/17)

Rowan’s 2016/17 Bet Diary Profit Report has just been published and is now available for immediately download.

You can download the report in PDF file directly via this link

This special report highlights the overall performance of Rowan’s 8 strong tipster portfolio between April 2016 and March 2017. Rowan has also shared figures on how each of the 8 tipsters he currently follows has performed over the past year.

This special report syncs up with the weekly posts that Rowan provides on this tipster portfolio via the Bet Diary.

Bet Diary 2017 Cover

How Rowan’s Figures Equate To Real Profits

Over the course of the 2016/17 year, Rowan made a 58.76% Return on Capital (ROC) also known as Betting Bank Growth.

The 58.76% ROC figure is of great interest as it indicates just how a betting bank will have grown in relation to these profits.

If for example, Rowan began with £2,000 in April 2016, then a 58.76% ROC would have made him a £1,175.20 profit by the end of March 2017.

Had he began with £20,000 in April 2016, the same 58.76% ROC would have pocketed him a £11,752.00 profit by the end of March 2017.

Here are a few more examples of how the 58.76% ROC would have helped with different sums:

  • £5,000 Starting Bank in April 2016: Profit of £2,938.00
  • £15,000 Starting Bank in April 2016: Profit of £8,814.00
  • £25,000 Starting Bank in April 2016: Profit of £14,690.00
  • £50,000 Starting Bank in April 2016: Profit of £29,380.00

2015/16 Performance – Comparison

Rowan’s tipster profits in 2016/17 stand at a Return on Investment (ROI) of 8.8% and a Return on Capital (ROC) of 58.76%.

Last April, Rowan also penned a similar report, whereby his Return On Investment (ROI) was 7.2% and his Return on Capital (ROC) was 64.4%.

Therefore, in the past 12 months, Rowan has increased his ROI by 1.6% and decreased his overall ROC by 5.64%.

As a combination, Rowan has made a 123.6% ROC since April 2015.

It is pleasing to see the consistency in form that Rowan has achieved over both these years, having met his stated yearly aim of at least 50% Return on Capital.

How To Copy Or Even Improve On Rowan’s Profits

If you are keen to emulate Rowan (or even to simply copy his approach!) then you might like to consider a Secret Betting Club membership.

We provide you with all the information (both theoretical and practical) to help you make the most of betting for profit using professional tipsters.

Through access to the Secret Betting Club you can read all of our reports and magazines on the best tipsters for you to follow.

Best of all – you can sign-up now for either a Gold or Platinum subscription and enjoy a 90-day risk free membership. So if you find our service not to your liking (we don’t imagine you will!) then you can get your money back, no questions asked.

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See you on the inside.

Peter Ling
SBC Editor

Antepost betting – why and how.

I thought that Northern Monkey’s review of March, which was sent out to members a couple of weeks ago (obviously!), made for fascinating reading.

The official record for the service at the Cheltenham Festival was a loss of -3.88 points, but I felt that Wayne was being extremely hard on himself recording these figures.  My Northern Monkey Cheltenham gave me a profit of just over 7 points!

I was fortunate to miss a couple of antepost bets that turned out to be losers but what really helped me was by being careful as to where I struck my bets.  For day to day betting, I don’t necessarily take the best odds on offer in the market.  I always try to ensure I take the prices that I know Wayne will use for his official records as a minimum – ie. the lowest quoted price in the email, but taking standout prices is, I have learnt, one of the fast routes to account closures.

When it comes to antepost betting however, I will always take the best price and/or terms available.  No Runner No Bet (NRNB) terms are a punting Godsend and I will always choose a bookmaker offering this concession over one that is not.  This saved me at least a couple of points at Cheltenham on horses that Wayne recorded as losers because he hadn’t specifically advised his members to take the NRNB terms.

My rationale for taking standout prices and the best available terms when betting antepost is that this form of betting carries plenty of dangers as it is, so squeezing the very last drop of value out of every single bet placed is common sense as far as I am concerned.  You’d also like to think that as you can really only bet antepost on the biggest races, liquidity is always going to be strong and therefore betting patterns are likely to come under less scrutiny from the bookmaking bean counters.  I have no idea if this is the case, but there’s a logic to the theory, eh?

Wayne has indicated that he may not go in quite so heavy with the antepost bets next season, but I’ll be following any he does advise in with a strong level of confidence, despite the fact that the latest batch of antepost bets – for the Grand National at Aintree and across various races across the All Weather Championship card at Lingfield on Good Friday – failing to pay off.  Ultimately, antepost betting represents a chance to lock in some exceptional value, albeit with risks attached.  And we know that if we can do that consistently, we’re going to make money.

Betting from Saturday April 1st to Saturday April 15th

In short, it’s been a horrible start to the month.  Only three of the eight services in the portfolio have produced any sort of profit, and only one – Racing Service A – providing a significant level in straight cash terms.

Talking of Racing Service A, the end of term report was sent out to members last week, and very interesting reading it made too.  It’s not been a vintage season for the service, but as ever, A. is thinking of ways he can improve the experience for those following, with an emphasis on being able to get on at decent prices.  I’ll go into it in a bit more detail next time, but in the meantime the Racing Service A season signed off with a fine 25/1 winner on the first day of the Aintree meeting which was a most welcome winner bearing in mind how things are going elsewhere.

By far the highest turnover in April to date has come from Northern Monkey, and unfortunately so has by far the biggest level of loss.  Let’s hope normal service is resumed.

After last month’s heroics, Pinpoint Golf has yet to get it together in April, with The Masters providing no return at all from the week’s bets.

Chasemaster has been on a shocking run of form, but hopefully a decent winner late last week signify an imminent return to form, and it’s a similar story with Racing Service B.

Let’s see what this week brings.

Chasemaster: Staked 16.5pts, -8.7pts.

Jason James: Staked 61.5pts, +4.25pts.

Morning Value Service (Lite): Staked 26pts, -2.66pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 49.5pts, -19.34pts.

Racing Service A: Staked 8pts, +3.25pts.

Racing Service B: Staked 42.5pts, -11.7pts.

Football Service 1: Staked 8pts, +1.43pts.

Pinpoint Golf: Staked 42pts, -25.5pts.

Total for April: ROI -20.36%, ROC -5.33%.

 

Rowan photo

Take Your Betting Up A Notch With The Bet Diary PRO!

If you enjoy reading these free Bet Diary posts, then you can gain access to my more detailed, professional betting blog (Bet Diary Pro) as a Secret Betting Club member.

First introduced in early 2015, the Bet Diary Pro provides even more on the practical realities of following tipsters to make money betting including:

  • Exclusive extra analysis on my betting portfolio and ongoing betting journey;
  • The EXACT identities of each of the tipsters I follow to make money betting;
  • Access to all SBC reviews, ratings and recommendations for each tipster;
  • Access to several major discounts/trials on the tipsters I follow;
  • Access to the SBC Tipping Forum and several free profitable tipsters.

Access to the Bet Diary Pro is available right away with either a Silver, Gold or Platinum Secret Betting Club membership.

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March Review – the positive impact of diversity.

Without a doubt the last couple of months have proven to be tricky ones for the racing tipsters in the portfolio.  Perhaps the most likely reason for the collective to find consistency of performance so hard to come by is the winter weather ensuring that at many racecourses the ground has become desperate.  Now that Spring is in the process of being sprung, the ground is beginning to dry out and hopefully we’ll see the racing services come into their own.

To be fair, of the six racing tipsters followed, four provided a profit, but with the exception of Racing Service A the level of profit was pretty low.  Throw into the mix a truly horrible month for Jason James Quantum Racing and suddenly the racing part of the portfolio has really struggled.

The value of diversification

No doubt you’ve read elsewhere the importance of ensuring that any investment portfolio carries a certain level of diversification.  A suite of betting services is no different, and how well that point was illustrated through March.

Whilst the horse racing tipsters struggled, Pinpoint Golf had an absolute stormer.  The profits generated by this service alone meant that March as a whole provided a good level of bank growth.  Of course there will be times when all sports bet on will lose through a month, just as there will be times when all produce a strong profit, but by introducing a level of diversification into the portfolio we are giving ourselves the best chance of avoiding such sharp ups and downs.

March’s Figures
 The total figures for March’s betting are: ROI 13.12%, ROC 6.6%

As mentioned, Pinpoint Golf excelled through March.  Two big winners in one week generated a huge profit and the weeks around this added to the bank too.  The level of bank growth has been massive and whilst all feels good right now, I am mentally bracing myself for what are sure to be more barren times ahead.  Simply, this rate of return cannot be maintained – there has to be a correction.  Let’s see what April brings.  Of course, The Masters is just around the corner.  It would add to the excitement watching the final round next Sunday evening if we have one or two in contention.  ROI 86.4%, ROC 67.5% (2017: ROI 34.58%, ROC 72.09%).

The one horse racing service to excel through March was Racing Service A, whose season has now come to an end.  It will tip through the three days of the Aintree Festival next week, and I always add the performance there to the official figures, so we’re not quite done with RSA just yet.  The 2016/17 season certainly hasn’t been a vintage one compared to those that came before, and it will be interesting when the tipster releases his end of term report.  I know he is already planning ahead for how exactly he is going to approach the 2017/18 season, and this I’m sure will make for interesting reading.  ROI 45.91%, ROC 9.12% (2017: ROI 23.75%, ROC 11.37%).

It feels like the Football Service 1 season has been a quiet one through 2016/17.  I need to check my bet number and compare it to the turnover generated over previous systems before I say that this is definitely the case.  March wasn’t a bad month at all, although the relatively low number of picks means that it is always going to be difficult to generate too much by way of bank growth.  ROI 10.73%, ROC 3.22% (2017: ROI 16.9%, ROC 10.48%).

Despite some decent enough winners, Northern Monkey didn’t quite catch the breaks over the Cheltenham Festival.  Having built up an impressive antepost portfolio, and having secured long odds on one or two horses that went off at very short odds on the day, it could so easily have delivered much larger profits than it did.  ROI 2.88%, ROC 3% (2017: ROI 8.04%, ROC 18.77%).

I was ultimately left a little disappointed with Morning Value LITE this month.  At one point it looked as if March was going to be extremely rewarding, but a poor last week put paid to that.  Still, it’s rolling along to a decent ROI through 2017 so far, so no real complaints.  ROI 4.55%, ROC 2.45% (2017: ROI 10.3%, ROC 13.91%).

The main man at Chasemaster went off on his jollies to Madeira last week.  Let’s hope the sun and warmth have a rejuvenating effect as 2017 hasn’t yet delivered the goods.  I’m sure it will, and a bit of profit through March will hopefully be a precursor to a strong run of form.  ROI 9.95%, ROC 1.99% (2017: ROI -14.27%, ROC -10.7%).

It looked as if Racing Service B’s month was going to prove an expensive one, and then he pulled out three winners from four bets out of his magic bag of tricks on the 31st at odds of 4/1, 5/1 and 8/1 to help turn things around.  The month still ended in the red, but to a much lesser extent than had looked likely.  ROI -9.95%, ROC 3.9% (2017: ROI 0.78%, ROC 0.99%).

And finally, it was, as previously mentioned, a month to forget for Jason James.  There are times when things can get a little demoralizing for a tipster, and I would suggest this might be one such for followers of this service.  At the end of last month, 2017 had already offered up bank growth of over a third.  At the end of this month, it’s back down to less than 5%.  ROI -49.83%, ROC -30.52% (2017: ROI 2.47%, ROC 4.63%).

Figures for 2017 to date: ROI 11.3%, ROC 15.19%.

Rowan photo

Take Your Betting Up A Notch With The Bet Diary PRO!

If you enjoy reading these free Bet Diary posts, then you can gain access to my more detailed, professional betting blog (Bet Diary Pro) as a Secret Betting Club member.

First introduced in early 2015, the Bet Diary Pro provides even more on the practical realities of following tipsters to make money betting including:

  • Exclusive extra analysis on my betting portfolio and ongoing betting journey;
  • The EXACT identities of each of the tipsters I follow to make money betting;
  • Access to all SBC reviews, ratings and recommendations for each tipster;
  • Access to several major discounts/trials on the tipsters I follow;
  • Access to the SBC Tipping Forum and several free profitable tipsters.

Access to the Bet Diary Pro is available right away with either a Silver, Gold or Platinum Secret Betting Club membership.

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Seeing is believing.

None of my racing tipsters have enjoyed a good week.  The football system I follow drew a blank.  And yet the portfolio as a whole generated a really strong profit thanks entirely to the Pinpoint Golf service.

Two superb winners last weekend at 50/1 and 100/1 meant that I was left congratulating myself on my decision to finally bite the betting bullet and follow a golf tipster this year.  It had taken some soul searching and something of a leap into the psychological unknown to do so.

I don’t like losing runs you see.  And yes, I know they’re part of the game, but there are losing runs and there are losing runs.  The sort of drawdowns you’re likely to experience following a golf tipster can frequently be long, drawn out affairs.  They can really test your punting mettle, placing bets week in and week out at long prices, knowing that it can be a very long time between drinks at the well of profit.

Faith takes time to develop

This is why I have, until this year, shied away from adding a golf betting service to my portfolio.  But then I thought I should man-up.  Golf would provide the portfolio with important diversity and if continuing it’s level of performance, Pinpoint Golf would generate strong profits.

The thing is though, no matter how much you tell yourself that something is so, it’s not until you live through and experience the good times as well as bad that you develop some faith in the tipster you’re following.  This is a lesson well worth remembering when you’re setting out.  Sure, you can read about losing runs and the best way of dealing with them.  You can try to convince yourself that the tipster you have recently joined has been through losing runs before and the one you’re currently experiencing is nothing out of the ordinary, but it’s not until you’ve come out the other side and have bagged some really good profit do you truly start to believe in a service.  The trick of course, is to keep doing what you need to be doing until that happens.

The golf brings home the bacon

So what about this week’s betting?

It’s been a strange old week, truth be told.  Six of the eight services proved unprofitable to follow, and yet it’s been a week that generated bank growth of 3.88%!

The profit all came from Pinpoint Golf, which had a fantastic weekend.  It’s the first time I’ve really had a massive win on the golf.  I’ve tried to mentally prepare myself for following a golf tipster, drumming into my subconscious and conscious that drawdowns can grow deeper and deeper over a long period of time but then we should see them relieved by the occasional very big win.  Trouble is, like with anything to do with betting I find, you can tell yourself this until you’re blue in the face, it’s not until you’ve experienced it that you truly accept that this is the way of things.

So it came as both a thrill and a relief when I discovered that Chris Williams (who is completely unknown to me!) won on the European Seniors Tour at odds of 50/1 carrying a relatively hefty stake.  When this was followed up by Marc Leishman winning on the PGA Tour at 100/1, albeit carrying a much smaller stake, I was in clover.

Enjoyable stuff, this golf betting lark. 🙂

As far as the racing goes, we’re currently in the midst of the “twilight zone”.  Cheltenham is done and dusted, and Aintree is on the horizon, so none of the really decent National Hunt horses are racing.  The flat horses are waiting for the start of the new turf season next week, so there really is pretty uninspiring stuff being served up at present.  Certainly the tipsters are finding it heavy going (the ones I follow, anyway).  Racing Service A only issued bets on Saturday, and Racing Service B and Northern Monkey have both suffered poor weeks.  No-one has excelled.

Chasemaster: Staked 6pts, -3pts.

Jason James: Staked 27pts, -0.8pts.

Morning Value Service LITE: Staked 13pts, -3.917pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 13.5pts, -5.21pts.

Racing Service A: Staked 0.875pts, +0.25pts.

Racing Service B: Staked 18.5pts, -14.1pts.

Pinpoint Golf: Staked 38.75pts, +114.85pts.

Football Service 1: Staked 3pts, -3pts.

Week’s Betting: ROI 36.2%, ROC 3.88%.

Take Your Betting Up A Notch With The Bet Diary PRO!

If you enjoy reading these free Bet Diary posts, then you can gain access to my more detailed, professional betting blog (Bet Diary Pro) as a Secret Betting Club member.

First introduced in early 2015, the Bet Diary Pro provides even more on the practical realities of following tipsters to make money betting including:

  • Exclusive extra analysis on my betting portfolio and ongoing betting journey;
  • The EXACT identities of each of the tipsters I follow to make money betting;
  • Access to all SBC reviews, ratings and recommendations for each tipster;
  • Access to several major discounts/trials on the tipsters I follow;
  • Access to the SBC Tipping Forum and several free profitable tipsters.

Access to the Bet Diary Pro is available right away with either a Silver, Gold or Platinum Secret Betting Club membership.

Subscribe Now & Gain Instant Access!

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So how was it for you?

Cheltenham, that is…

Superb sport over four days.  There’s something about the place that seems to capture the very essence of National Hunt racing.  The honesty, bravery and sheer guts of both equine and human participants encapsulates what is so thrilling about top level sport; I am always lost in admiration of both.

A couple of observations though, before I talk about the betting.

What is the point of television interviewing the stable lads and lasses?  I mean, what they do is hugely admirable and there is no doubting the sincerity of their love for the animals they care for.  But ultimately, most are too nervous to communicate in anything other than monosyllables, uttered mostly through fits of nervous giggles.  It really doesn’t make for good tv!

And if Ed Chamberlain says “Brilliant!” one more time in response to the most basic of remarks from Ruby Walsh or some owner, I’m going to throw my form book through the telly!

There was one element to the tv coverage that made me stop and think though.  Matt Chapman was in the betting ring talking to the representative from Starsports Bookmakers just before Altior’s race.  The guy told Chapman that a credit customer had had a £400k bet to win £100k.

Now, I cannot see how anyone could see value in Altior’s pre-race odds (and look how Douvan failed to land similar odds the following day) so I can only assume it wasn’t a professional gambler who placed this bet.  More likely someone to whom losing such an amount wouldn’t be the end of the world.  In which case, why did they strike the bet at all?  If losing £400k was (hopefully) manageable, what impact would winning “just” £100k have on this individual?  It strikes me that the risk of losing was perhaps more important (ie. provided the thrill) to this person than the prospect of winning.  The psychology of gambling is a weird old science!

Betting from Sunday 12th March to Saturday 18th March

I had three highlights to my Cheltenham week.

Northern Monkey’s antepost bet on Gold Cup winner Sizing John at 33/1 was one, and what was even more impressive was that he also advised runner-up Minella Rocco each way at the same price, and third-placed Native River too, at 8/1.

Another was Racing Service A‘s 16/1 advised on Bumper winner Fayonagh which won in incredible style.  Whipping around at the start and being left lengths behind the rest of the pack, his amateur jockey kept his cool and somehow managed to roust a winning run that started from around two furlongs out.  Even with half a furlong to go, the likelihood of it winning the race looked slim to say the least, but the beast simply rattled home to get up close to the line.  Thrilling stuff!

The third betting highlight didn’t actually take place at Cheltenham.  What a day Wednesday was for the Morning Value LITE service.  Three bets, three winners, including one – So Celebre – that was advised at 2/1 and won at 5/1.  The beauty of BOG, eh?  I’m enjoying making hay whilst that particular sun shines.

It’s not all been plain sailing though.  The figures for Jason James aren’t pretty…

Chasemaster: Staked 4pts, +3.7pts.

Jason James: Staked 37pts, -32.5pts.

MVS Lite: Staked 17pts, +11.875pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 46pts, +8.14pts.

Racing Service A: Staked 7.187pts, +1.937pts.

Racing Service B: Staked 27pts, +2.25pts.

Pinpoint Golf: Staked 32.75pts, +4.1pts.

Football Service 1: Staked 1pt, +1.69pts.

Week’s betting: ROI 13.91%, ROC 2.49%.

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The Magic of Cheltenham

So the alarm goes off at 7 am, and promptly snoozed.  Two “snoozes” later, at 7.27 am I’m conscious enough to remember that it’s Tuesday and the first day of Cheltenham.  With that thought, I’m able to do a passing impression at least, of a “spring” out of bed!

The mutt is released from her quarters and, tail wagging so hard it goes around in circles, heads straight for the door, knowing that it’s time for a walk.  Down into town I go, mutt in tow, to pick up the Racing Post, milk for hot coffee, and Irish potato cakes – a tradition that provides a nod towards the invading hordes from across the sea that between them will, over the next four days, drink enough Guinness to down the Titanic.

The ‘Morning Line’ (or whatever the ITV equivalent is known as) is set to record on Sky Plus, and after a shower and shave those potato cakes go down rather nicely whilst watching the show (hint: grate some Parmesan over the top – d-bloomin’-licious!).

The Morning Line over, it’s to the RP.  I’m not kidding here, I give it a good smell before opening it.  I’m telling you, it smells different, Cheltenham week.  If you don’t believe me, try it!

First up, it’s Alastair Down’s piece, full of verbosity and a trifle irritating any other week of the year, but this week I find he is a grand writer and racing muse.  It must be something to do with the mood I’m in.  Then, Pricewise, and then the rest.  Got to admit I’m interrupted at regular intervals as my tipster’s bets come through.  The thoughts from of the tipster behind Racing Service A are always worth a very careful read, particularly so this week.  All this must take me a good two hours or so of reading because the next thing I know it’s lunchtime.

A bacon and egg sarnie (brown sauce, of course) and a strong cuppa…and it’s time to switch the racing on.  From this point up to the last race of the day – the last two races watched on the laptop on Racing UK – I shall not move from the telly except to make a cuppa and grab a biscuit or three about halfway through.  The kids come in from school with barely an acknowledgement, and they can’t believe their luck that Dad’s too preoccupied to nag them about getting their homework done.

After the last, it’s off out to get some fresh air, walk through the fields with the dog and contemplate the day’s gains or losses.  As I get back home, there’s a big smile on the old boat race as I think that I’m going to do it all again tomorrow.

Ah yes.  The magic of Cheltenham.

Betting from Wednesday 1st March to Saturday 12th March

Not the brightest of starts to the month, but losses are marginal.  Here’s hoping Cheltenham brings a few good priced winners.  I’ve quite the antepost Northern Monkey portfolio to look forward to, and no doubt Racing Service A and Racing Service B will be busy at the Festival too.

Chasemaster: Staked 10pts, +1.291pts.

Jason James: Staked 40.5pts, -22.5pts.

Morning Value Service (Lite): Staked 20pts, -1.5pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 14pts, +0.338pts.

Racing Service A: Staked 1.625pts, +2.625pts.

Racing Service B: Staked 23.5pts, -10.667pts.

Football Service 1: Staked 9pts, +2.92pts.

Pinpoint Golf: Staked 38pts, -2.2pts.

March’s performance to date: ROI -5.33%, ROC -0.8%.

 

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February Review – a month of consolidation.

2017 got off to a cracking start. January, if you remember, kicked up bank growth of 7.42% and so I went into February with the primary ambition of not giving a great big chunk of it back.  In such context, February adding just a little to the coffers is viewed as a success.  There is nothing I find more galling than a really good month being followed immediately by a really bad one, and happily I can say I’ve managed to avoid that psychologically difficult to handle scenario on this occasion.

February’s Figures

The total figures for February’s betting are: ROI 1.83%, ROC 1.17%.

February proved a tricky time for the racing tipsters, with only two of the six generating a profit.  This is likely down to desperate ground conditions being the norm, which is never an easy factor to counter.

Jason James has been both the outstanding performer in February, and through 2017 to date.  No heavy going concerns for him!  His is a service that I’m watching develop with a keen interest.  I’m a firm believer that the best tipsters evolve over time, honing their skills as they go.  This doesn’t necessarily mean they become better at identifying value – that fundamental skill has to underlie everything they do right from the start.  But what they do often improve is the way they run their service.  Jason’s introduction of market comments to his commentary and the setting of a minimum price for each of his selections elevates his service in terms of user friendliness.  He is to be wholeheartedly applauded for making this move, as he is for his performance figures attained so far this year.  ROI 39.22%, ROC 22.45% (2017: ROI 27.9%, ROC 35.16%).

As you may or may not recall, I’m a relative newbie to golf betting.  I remember backing Nick Faldo (off my own bat…or club, perhaps?) when he famously overhauled Greg Norman over the final round in the Masters many years ago, but apart from dabbling in the sport a bit when following ClubGOWI, I’ve not ever really got into golf as a serious betting medium.  So it has been enjoyable to watch Pinpoint Golf steadily accumulate some decent profit this month.  I get the distinct feeling that golf betting can be acutely frustrating at times; near misses at huge odds, and inevitably long losing runs.  But then I’m hoping this will be countered somewhat by grabbing some pretty big and exciting returns at times too.  Bring it on.  ROI 14.62%, ROC 11.99% (2017: ROI 3.52%, ROC 4.59%).

The epitome of steadiness over the past two months has been the Morning Value LITE offering from the SBC.  This is a service that is likely to only ever really warrant comment after a particularly good winning run or a sharp, shocking losing spell, which really ought not to be the case.  There is a vital role within any betting portfolio for a service whose returns are best described as steady as opposed to spectacular.  Many have tried to run a service that fulfils such a function and failed miserably.  MVS LITE has stood the test of time, and praise to it for that.  ROI 8.7%, ROC 3.83% (2017: ROI 14.14%, ROC 11.46%).

The last service to make a profit, albeit a nominal one only this month, is Football Service 1.  February has been a particularly slow month with only 7 bets in total.  This is due mainly to the FA Cup, I think, with fixtures for the once-wonderful and now ruined knock-out competition impinging significantly on the league schedule.  I’m expecting increased action through March.  ROI 0.57%, ROC 0.08% (2017: ROI 20.17%, 7.26%).

Suffering just a tiny loss through February was Racing Service B.  Not much to write here, expect I’m still expecting the tipster to snap into some sort of sustained good form sooner rather than later.  ROI -2.59%, ROC -0.9% (2017: ROI 5.62%, ROC 4.91%).

Like Football Investor, Racing Service A has had a quiet time of it, with only 7 points staked through the month.  A. is examining ways of possibly increasing turnover in the future via his forum and I wish him well in his quest.  He is acutely aware of the difficulties for his members of securing prices and staying beyond the ever watchful gaze of the bookmakers’ overworked “Account Closure” departments when tipping into weak, early/midweek betting markets.  Although this month has proved to be a little disappointing, Cheltenham is just around the corner, and this is a track where historically he has enjoyed some spectacular successes.  ROI -35.71%, ROC -5% (2017: ROI 8.04%, ROC 2.25%).

Last month’s hero Northern Monkey was brought down to earth a little through February.  This has been partly due to ongoing attempts to secure some decent stakes rolling onto Cheltenham Festival fancies by way of multiple bets.  Like last year, Wayne now has considerable capital invested in the Festival, and I approach Cheltenham with a mixture of excitement and trepidation.  Last year, Wayne’s strategy paid off handsomely, but with 36 points of an 80 point bank already laid down with the bookies, it’s “squeaky bum” time.  Roll on next Tuesday – let the fun and games begin!  ROI -20.66%, ROC -12.56% (2017: ROI 12.22%, ROC 15.77%).

Finally this month, I have to report a bit of a shocker for Chasemaster.  Roll on March.  I’m sure things will get better for F, P, and the team!  ROI -47.41%, ROC -13.75% (2017: ROI -23.09%, ROC -12.7%).

So, figures for 2017 ytd are: ROI 10.21%, ROC 8.59%.

March, to a large extent, revolves around Cheltenham.  Let’s hope the Festival is kind to us.

Until next week…

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Take Your Betting Up A Notch With The Bet Diary PRO!

If you enjoy reading these free Bet Diary posts, then you can gain access to my more detailed, professional betting blog (Bet Diary Pro) as a Secret Betting Club member.

First introduced in early 2015, the Bet Diary Pro provides even more on the practical realities of following tipsters to make money betting including:

  • Exclusive extra analysis on my betting portfolio and ongoing betting journey;
  • The EXACT identities of each of the tipsters I follow to make money betting;
  • Access to all SBC reviews, ratings and recommendations for each tipster;
  • Access to several major discounts/trials on the tipsters I follow;
  • Access to the SBC Tipping Forum and several free profitable tipsters.

Access to the Bet Diary Pro is available right away with either a Silver, Gold or Platinum Secret Betting Club membership.

Subscribe Now & Gain Instant Access!

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