Preparing for the worst.

Last week we spoke about the dreaded losing run and hinted at the difficulties in developing a coping mechanism that cab be relied upon when one strikes.  I mentioned that I’d write a series of posts around the subject.  This is the first.

To be totally honest, it took me a good long while to even begin to cope when things turned sour.  I made all the basic, text book mistakes; dropping a good tipster who was simply going through a temporary bad patch, jumping to new tipsters that hadn’t really proved their ability over a large enough sample of bets or for a long enough period of time, reducing stakes, etc., etc.  Whatever it is you are told not to do, I did it, and I paid the price in hard cash, never making as much as I ought to and losing more than I should.

When I thought about how I would approach this series of posts, it dawned on me that the very best thing anyone can do is to pre-prepare for losing runs.  Instead of simply learning about what you should and shouldn’t do when a drawdown actually hits, better by far to put yourself in a place where you are pre-empting the worst before it actually happens.  Readying yourself for the inevitable, if you like.

So what is the first step?

I’d suggest that before anything else, we need to truly accept that there will be times when our betting looks bleak, pointless, is mentally draining and worrying.  Now, do you really accept that this is so, or do you actually merely pay lip service to the notion, telling yourself that periods of sustained loss will happen, sure, but if you pick the right services to follow, they won’t happen to you?  I have spoken to so many bettors who tell me that when a sharp drawdown arrived, it actually took them by surprise despite the fact they’d read all about them and had thought they were ready, but in fact weren’t anywhere near prepared.

And there it is in a nutshell…being prepared.  Even if we think the worst won’t happen, why not set your betting operation up in such a way that if (when) it does, you’ve built yourself the best, most sturdy of shelters to resist the ravages of the storm?

How do you do this?  Simple.  You make sure that your betting bank is big enough.  Again, I can pass on that the number of people I’ve spoken to during my betting consultancy sessions who massively overstake in relation to their available funds is huge.  My belief is that it is the most common error people make when it comes to betting – they’re underfunded and overstaking.  We’ll explore the consequences of having a betting bank that is not built for the stakes being used in later posts, but for now, take this one point away with you – make sure your betting bank is of sufficient size.  If it’s not, then reduce stakes or drop services, even if only temporarily whilst you build your betting bank to the size it ought to be.  Believe me, this one simple measure will keep you in the game long term, and in the beginning, that really should be your sole aim.

One more point.  You may see discussion about leveraging your funds.  In other words, you are assigning a theoretically larger bank than you actually possess in cash terms, across two or more services.  The principle is that as you diversify and spread your risk across a number of different tipsters, you can afford to spread your funds and make the money you do have work harder for you.  Be careful – I can see the point of this if you have a larger portfolio of services (I do apply a little leverage to my own private betting), but when you’re starting out, why increase your exposure and therefore risk?  By re-investing profit, you can build your portfolio steadily and safely without leveraging funds at all.  And then, when you have done this, sure, apply a little leverage, but don’t go mad, for if you do then it adds to the pressure when a losing run hits, which in turn can have a very real, detrimental affect on you as a bettor.

More on losing runs next week.

Betting for August 1st to August 6th.

Well, things are looking a little brighter than they were.  Good weeks for Northern Monkey and Racing Service B at Glorious Goodwood (with NMP knocking in the winner of the Stewards Cup at 20/1!).  The star of the show however was the Fake Mug Bets Club which was one of those to really suffer in July.  Saturday saw three of five daytime selections winning which meant a number of successful Combo bets landed and a very nice return indeed.

AH Betting: Staked 5pts, -0.157pts.

Football Service 1: n/a

Fake Mug Bets Club: Staked 60pts, +47.75pts.

Jason James: Staked 17pts, -6.5pts.

MVS (Lite): Staked 19pts, -0.25pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 13.875pts, +9.437pts.

Pilelist Racing: Staked 6.733pts, +0.433pts.

Racing Service A: n/a

Racing Service B: Staked 22pts, +15.7pts.

Racing Service C: Staked 21pts, -1.625pts.

Total month to date: ROI 25.01%, ROC 2.76%.

July review – a bit of a ‘mare.

Oh, dear.  Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear.  Not good.

July has been my worst month of betting for quite some time.  In fact, off the top of my head I can’t remember when things went quite so badly.  Of the eight services in the portfolio that provided bets, six of them generated a loss; five of those six produced losses that can be accurately described as being significant.

There really was very little let-up.  Four of the services – MVS (Lite), Fake Mug Bets, Jason James and Pilelist Racing – went on losing runs that I’ve not seen for some time.  I guess with the Fake Mug Bets, playing in multiples as it does, the drawdown must be expected, but backing the horses in singles as is the case with MVS (Lite) and at relatively short odds…it’s not easy to take.

The chap behind Pilelist Racing is obviously feeling the pressure a little too – it’s not been a good year so far and towards the end of the month it was clear (because he said so) that a short break was needed.  This game can do that to you.  It can be unremitting and bleak, testing the will of those with the strongest of mentalities.

It wasn’t all completely bleak.  Northern Monkey had a stormer, and thank goodness it did because if it hadn’t, the overall losses really would be big.  It was good to see Wayne come back to form after a sticky spell of his own, and let’s hope that now he’s hit his straps, the rest of the summer remains kind.

What is a little galling when I look at the losses is the fact that we’ve had our most consistent summer weather for about 40 years.  We had no significant rain throughout the entire month, and it is common belief that when going conditions are consistent, the form book is easier to interpret.  Good weather = good results…or not, it seems.

So what to do?

Nothing at this moment in time.  We just carry on, plugging away, hoping that those currently in a trough pull things around sooner rather than later.  What I am going to do though from this point, is dedicate two or three posts to that old chestnut of handling losing runs.  What to do, what not to do (and why not), how to protect ourselves, how to cope mentally, and how to judge when a tipster might really have lost it and should be “unfollowed”.

Until the next post then, here are July’s sorry figures:

AH Edge: Staked 13pts, -0.744pts, ROI -5.72%, ROC -1.24%.

Fake Mug Bets Club: Staked 148pts, -80.312pts, ROI -54.26%, ROC -20.07%.

Football Service 1: n/a

Jason James: Staked 92pts, -60.85pts, ROI -66.14%, ROC -30.42%.

MVS (Lite): Staked 73pts, -12.625pts, ROI -17.29%, ROC -14.02%.

Northern Monkey: Staked 81.333pts, +48.844pts, ROI 56.36%, ROC 57.3%.

Pilelist Racing: Staked 41.4pts, -21.288pts, ROI -51.42%, ROC -28.38%.

Racing Service A: n/a

Racing Service B: Staked 77pts, +13.825pts, ROI 17.95%, ROC 6.91%.

Racing Service C: Staked 50pts, -8.154pts, ROI -16.3%, ROC -8.15%.

Total: ROI -13.98%, ROC -5.87%.

Come and have a go if you think you’re good enough…

I was reading an article the other evening that was attempting to address the question of whether or not it’s possible to bet full time as a way of making a living.  It wasn’t really this issue that took my interest, more the section of the piece that considered how to create your own edge in the betting markets.

I’ve got to admit, it’s never entered my head to look at identifying my own bets, whether that be on the horses, football, cricket or any other sport you might think to bet on.  And then I asked myself, why not?  I like to think I’m a fairly intelligent chap; certainly I’m not stupid (unlike whoever is in charge of the staff rota at the local supermarket, who thinks it a good idea to put the chattiest, slowest, will-spend-five-minutes-talking-about-the-weather checkout girl on the ‘Express’ lane!).

I digress.

So yes, why not start to create my own edge?  Then I wouldn’t have to worry about odds movements, or paying subs, or that a tipster I’m following doesn’t start to get lazy and cut corners, leading to an inevitable irreversible and catastrophic drawdown.  I might be able to make my methods work on the Exchanges, so bookmaker restrictions don’t come into play and threaten to derail my hopes and plans.  All sounds so good, right?

And then I realized that there was no one single answer to my question of, ‘Why not create my own edge’, but reasons that are too numerous to list exhaustively.

For a start…where would I start?  I mean, ok, so I know how to read the form in the Racing Post, but interpreting what I’m reading is a whole different kettle of sardines.  I can watch a footie match and form an opinion on teams, playing styles, strengths and weaknesses, etc., but translating that into knowing value when I see it is no easy task, is it?  Far better I reckon to debate my opinions down the pub and keep my money for a pint or two than to put my money where my mouth is with the bookies.

But folk do create their own edges, and thank heavens they do, too.  If they didn’t, who would we follow?  How would we make money, whether it be just enough for the odd meal out or to generate a whole second (or even primary) income?

It’s when I go down this thought process a wee bit further that I realize just how much I admire and are thankful to the tipsters I follow.  I reckon that the guys that run the services that the SBC monitor, and which have been proven over the long-term to be successful, must be one of the hardest working group of professionals – in any walk of life – I know.  Seriously, just think for a moment about the amount of work that must go into creating a valid edge over the bookmakers, who pour who knows how much money into ensuring that the errors they make in pricing up the sports markets are kept to an absolute minimum.  How much work on top of that does it take to actually run a successful service efficiently, answering customer queries, requests and demands promptly and politely?

And then ask yourself this…on top of all that hard work, how do these guys cope with the frustrations and stresses that come with the unavoidable losing runs, the near misses, and the complaints and brickbats that are thrown their way by the ignorant and ungrateful as a consequence?

I’m telling you, our proven, tried and tested tipsters are the Saints of the betting world.  If you don’t believe me, go try and find your own way of beating the books.

Figures to follow shortly…

The importance of record-keeping.

**WARNING: THIS POST MAY INCLUDE SENTENCES SOME READERS MAY FIND UPSETTING**

You might have to bear with me a little on this one.  What I’m about to type does eventually tie in to betting, you’ll see…

So there I was, playing in a T20 Cup cricket match against local rivals Alderley Edge.  I’m fielding at what, for those of you of a cricketing bent, will know as short extra cover.  Because it’s T20, we’re playing with a hard, lacquered pink ball.

The batsman wellies it.  In a heroic attempt at a stop, I throw myself full length to my right and manage to get a hand to the ball.  Dumb.  As I stand up, I see blood; quite a lot of it, coming from my hand.

Well that’s not going to stop me (although it did, shortly), I’m thinking.  Calling for a tissue or something to put around my hand, I wipe the red stuff away and bowl the next over.  Got to admit, it is bleeding quite a lot.  At the end of the over, a teammate and Paramedic comes over to have a look, tells me I’m a “wally” (insert stronger word) and that I need to go to hospital.

So I do.  Nurse looks at it, cleans it out, and tells me I may need surgery!  As it turns out I don’t, stitches will do the trick.  No anaesthetic because of where the cut is, and all they could offer was gas and air.  No chance of that, I’m not bloody pregnant!

Anyway, grit the old teeth as she’s sewing my hand up, and rewarded when she tells me I’m a model patient (which appeals to my ego as she’s quite attractive)!  Ego melts into embarrassment when near the end of the stitching I nearly faint and have to lie down on the examination couch for five minutes.  The attractive Nurse looks disappointed…not the model patient after all, just another wimp.

So what has this all got to do with betting?  Well, nothing in a direct sense, but in an indirect sense, it’s had a real knock on effect.

Since the injury I’ve been able to type, albeit with some discomfort, but I’ve not been able to write.  The cut is exactly where the pen rests and with the hand bandaged up anyway, I can’t even hold the pen, never mind use it.

Trouble is, I STILL (and this is where some readers may get upset -I did warn you at the top!) write down all of my results.  Each and every one of them.  It’s how I keep my records.

There, I’ve said it.  Yep, that’s right.  I still use a pen and paper to record my betting results.

I know, I know.  You think less of me, but this is my ‘coming out’ moment.  I need understanding and patience.  I need support.  (Actually, I think I need my head examined, but there we go).

After the initial feelings of guilt I had about this sensitive issue, I’ve reached a point where I thought, ‘Sod it’.  You know what – writing down my results works for me.  So I’m going to ask you a question now.  What do you use to record YOUR betting results?  You do record them, don’t you?

DON’T YOU???

Please tell me you do.  I really don’t care if you use the most amazing spreadsheet, pen and paper, or papyrus and the blood of a snake…you must record your results.  It’s imperative, and I still talk to a lot of people who don’t (hence this post).

And I’ll leave you with this thought…  I’ve not been able to record my results for a week, not efficiently anyway.  A week, and already I’m feeling out of control and out of my comfort zone because I don’t know where I am.  I’ve an idea obviously, but not knowing specifically is something I really don’t like.  The reason I don’t like it is because I know how important it is to know exactly where you stand, all the time.

Right – stitches out today and records brought up to date tomorrow, I hope.

May Review

May was a funny old month.  Bank growth of 6.64% and an ROI of 12.4% means it was a good month, and yet five of the nine services to offer bets ended with a loss; four of those five endured what can only be described as a pretty torrid time of it.

So the feel as I was going through May day by day was that things were a struggle, that losses were steadily mounting up, and yet we end with a double digit ROI!  Of course this is all thanks to the MVS (Lite) service and the derivative Fake Mug Bets Club.  That one day when the stars aligned and we had multiple winners from FMBC, all put in multiple bets as well as singles, meant the pay day was huge and the pay month decent!

What I want to see now are the other services, that have underperformed, start to deliver some consistent returns.  The weather has been set fair for a few weeks now, the flat season is no longer in it’s infancy and the form has settle down – these are ideal conditions for horse racing tipsters to be profiteering.  It’s no good making allowances for poor performance in November and March when the weather is unsettled, going conditions unpredictable, and question marks hang over the fitness of the horses, if when conditions are right we don’t have higher expectations.

So, we know that the Fake Mug Bets Club really produced the goods in May, and by default then we can expect MVS (Lite) to have a pretty decent month too, and so it did.  I remember last summer was a real purple patch for MVS (Lite) – let’s hope this is the start of another golden period (a goldurple patch perhaps, or a purpleden period)!

As for the negatives, well it really has been a month to forget for Racing Service C which found winners very hard to locate.  Jason James struggled too and Racing Service B will be glad to see the back of it too.

Onwards and upwards, Chaps!

AH Betting: Staked 32pts, -5.15pts, ROI -16.12%, ROC -8.59%.

Fake Mug Bets Club: Staked 156pts, +315.714pts, ROI 202.38%, ROC 78.92%.

Football Service 1: Staked 8pts, +3.711pts, ROI 46.38%, ROC 7.42%.

Jason James: Staked 141.5pts, -27.38pts, ROI -19.34%, ROC -13.69%.

MVS (Lite): Staked 71pts, +32.583pts, ROI 45.89%, ROC 36.2%.

Northern Monkey: Staked 70.875pts, -4.217pts, ROI -5.95%, ROC -5.27%.

Pilelist Racing: Staked 69.483pts, +3.2pts, ROI 4.6%, ROC 4.26%.

Racing Service A: n/a

Racing Service B: Staked 113.25pts, -28.25pts, ROI -24.94%, ROC -11.62%.

Racing Service C: Staked 48pts, -20.512pts, ROI -42.73%, ROC -20.51%.

Total: ROI 12.4%, ROC 6.64%.

Get it in your ears.

irst of all, if this is your first visit to the Bet Diary after reading the 2017/18 Report, welcome on board.  Good to see you. 🙂

You know even old fuddy duddies like me can get into ‘new’ technology.  It was only last week that I resolved never to buy a cd again after I discovered the Deezer app and realised that for a small monthly fee I could download and play any music I wanted to at any time.  I could listen in the car, at home connected to the ‘stereo’ (doesn’t that sound an old-fashioned word now?) via WiFi, wherever.  It’s transformed my musical life, and I do like a new album.

And I know this isn’t really anything new as they’ve been going for some years now, but I’ve started getting into Podcasts in a big way.  Getting a hairy beast (the dog, not the wife) has pushed me in this direction; take the dog for a long walk every day, stick my earphones in and listen to the ‘Cricket Analyst’ podcast or any one of a number of Arsenal related pods.  It’s all good.

And then Wayne of Northern Monkey released a short podcast in which he looked at this year’s Derby and it got me thinking.  Why don’t more tipsters exploit this medium?  I think it would be a great way for a tipster to engage with their customer-base.  They could do as Wayne did and concentrate on giving their views on certain big races, or if say, Racing Service B did a pre-Cheltenham podcast I’d regard it as essential listening.

I know our very own Pete here at the SBC has done a number of podcasts, but really the betting world as a whole seems sadly lacking in this area.  If anyone knows of any that are worth listening to, stick it in the Comments section – it would be good to find them.  In the meantime, one for tipsters to ponder perhaps.

Betting Performance

After the recent Fake Mug Bets fireworks, all has been a little more sedate across this past week, with nothing of real note happening.  Here are the figures for the month to date:

AH Betting: Staked 32pts, -3.15pts.

Football Service 1: Staked 8pts, +3.711pts.

Jason James: Staked 136.5pts, -30.38pts.

MVS (Lite): Staked 67pts, +31.083pts.

Fake Mug Bets: Staked 151pts, +315.21pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 69.37pts, -3.99pts.

Pilelist Racing: Staked 59.15pts, +7.98pts.

Racing Service A: n/a

Racing Service B: Staked 104.25pts, -33.25pts.

Racing Service C: Staked 48pts, -20.512pts.

Bet Diary Profit Report (17/18)

Rowan’s 2017/18 Bet Diary Profit Report has just been published and is now available for immediately download.

Inside this FREE report, you can read all about Rowan’s tipster portfolio and exactly how much he has made following 10 tipsters over the past 12 months.

The good news is that it’s been another profitable year for him….Providing yet more evidence (were it needed) that money can be made with the right tipster portfolio.

Click the link below now to read his latest report on the profits he is making.

   DOWNLOAD ROWAN’S BET DIARY REPORT PDF   

 

Bet Diary 2017 Cover

How To Copy Or Even Improve On Rowan’s Profits

If you are keen to emulate Rowan (or even to simply copy his approach!) then you might like to consider a Secret Betting Club membership.

We provide you with all the information (both theoretical and practical) to help you make the most of betting for profit using professional tipsters.

Through access to the Secret Betting Club you can read all of our reports and magazines on the best tipsters for you to follow.

Best of all – you can sign-up now for either a Gold or Platinum subscription and enjoy a 90-day risk free membership. So if you find our service not to your liking (we don’t imagine you will!) then you can get your money back, no questions asked.

Sign-up now and get started with instant access to our service.

See you on the inside.

Peter Ling
SBC Editor

Getting the rewards for practicing what we preach.

I was going to write about how ironic it is that the bookmakers are in the process of having the stakes they can accept on their FOBTs capped at £2 by the UK Gambling Commission, but then Monday happened.

Monday, the 21st of May.

It will go down in my personal betting annals as a true red letter day.  A day when the MVS (Lite) service came into it’s own, particularly the strategy of placing multiple selections as multiple bets.

If you’ve read my latest annual report, you will have seen me preaching the virtues of patience with this method of betting.  Of course we know that patience is a virtue when we’re betting full stop, but the importance of exercising it when following a low strike rate service is huge.

It is so easy to preach, more difficult to practice.  And so I thought I’d let you know (those of you who aren’t members of the SBC’s Fake Mug Bets Club of just how patience can be generously rewarded.)

I place my multiple bets at SP – I simply don’t have the time to go shopping around for the ‘collective’ best prices on offer to put in a multiple bet.  I stick the MVS (Lite) selections on as singles, and then as doubles, patents, yankees, whatever, depending on the number of bets there are.

On Monday, there were four.  The SPs of each were 11/4, 5/2, 5/2 and 10/11 (after a number of non-runners).  They all won!  Yep, you read that correctly…  They. All. Won.

A huge return, well over 50% of the betting bank allocated to the multiple bets.  After months of waiting for a big one, it arrived in some style.  After months of exercising patience, I was rewarded.  It’s so nice to be able to demonstrate, instead of just preach, the value patience has when it comes to following tipsters. 🙂

Figures for May to date:

ROI: 19.05%.  ROC: 7.63%.

AH Betting: Staked 26pts, -4.57pts.

Football Service 1: Staked 8pts, +3.711pts.

Jason James: Staked 110pts, -27.38pts.

MVS (Lite): Staked 56pts, +25.583pts.

Fake Mug Bets Club: Staked 134pts, +315.71pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 52.375pts, -0.777pts.

Pilelist Racing: Staked 46pts, +1.208pts.

Racing Service B: Staked 73pts, -8pts.

Racing Service C: Staked 33pts, -16.325pts.

They’re far from perfect, but…

Don’t get me wrong, I really don’t like the way UK bookies go about their business.  A refusal to stand anything approaching a reasonably sized bet should their customer show just the slightest inkling that they might not be a complete mug punter, and the ridiculously quick imposition of restrictions on accounts closely followed by full closure, is a far from admirable business practice.  And that’s all before we even start to consider such grey areas as misleading advertising.  But, as far as I’m aware, incidents of behaviour that may be considered as being outright fraudulent are thankfully rare.

From afar, by comparison the Asian betting scene can be seen as being a little “murky”.  Stories of huge betting syndicates putting down large amounts of money and fixed matches are relatively commonplace.  Unsurprisingly, the Asian bookmakers are wary.  The likes of Pinnacle and SBOBet, in my experience, run their businesses remarkably efficiently, allowing large bets to be placed without negative consequences for account health and running to a much smaller overround compared to their European counterparts.  Sure, offered prices tend to be more volatile as they react quickly to weight of money, but there’s nothing wrong with that!

It was with concern however that I heard allegations recently of unfair practices executed by the firm Singbet.  Singbet are an Asian firm that can be accessed via a number of betting brokerages by customers living in countries that allow patronage.  It is alleged that bets have simply been voided with no fair warning, costing the bettor the proceeds from winning bets placed in good faith.

Just be careful. My advice would be to stick to the firms that, over the years, have established a reputation for sound business practice.  My own experience of Singbet (admittedly from a few years back) is that they don’t need too much to decide that money they see come in on minor league football matches is “dodgy”, and they therefore subsequently void the bet (which, I would guess, they are entitled to do in accordance with their terms of business).  They often leave themselves open to smart money by dint of the fact that they are relatively slow in slashing their odds when money does come in for certain teams. Singbet lag behind many of the other main Asian firms in this respect who change odds very quickly indeed.  This opens them up to a far higher level of risk exposure, vulnerable as this makes them to shrewd and knowledgeable value hunters.

Portfolio Performance

Oh, dear.  Things are as miserable as the current spring weather at present.  Only four of the ten services are showing a profit through this month to date, and losing days are far outnumbering the winning days.  The only highlight last week came from Jason James who picked out a ripsnorter of a bet when Rejahh came in at 33/1 at Cheltenham.

AH Edge: Staked 26pts, -4.564pts.

Football Service 1: Staked 9pts, -3.693pts.

Jason James: Staked 37.5pts, +17.687pts.

MVS (Lite): Staked 14pts, +2.75pts.

MVS (Multiples): Staked 17pts, +3.35pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 31.5pts, -7.256pts.

Pilelist Racing: Staked 22.033pts, +3.668pts.

Racing Service A: Staked 10pts, +3pts.

Racing Service B: Staked 61pts, -37pts.

Racing Service C: Staked 37pts, -9.05pts.