Fink Tank Ratings & Value Bets

Here are the latest value bets according to the latest Fink Tank Ratings. You can find some background on this test here.

Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. The Fink Tank team found that shots on target was the best predictor of the outcome of a football game and when you rate this for various attributes you can have a reliable prediction model. For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds. The bigger the difference, the bigger the value on offer in theory. Click on the image below for the weekend’s qualifiers

Table showing the fink tank games and the value based on bookmaker odds.

For the season so far, the Fink Tank ratings have proven to be effective, making a profit of 37 points from 1 point level staking for an ROI of 18% (Profit on turnover). Most of the gains have come from big value away winners.

For more tests of ratings services like this in sports from football to horse racing, check out how membership of Secret Betting Club could help you.

Mike's Football Bets 11th February

Not the easiest looking betting fixtures this weekend in the top flight and just the 2 Main bets from me, starting off with the game at the Stadium of Light between Sunderland and Spurs.

Spurs have struggled lately with injuries to the creative hub of their team with the likes of Modric, Bale and now Van der Vaart all out. To make matters worse they face a very tricky fixture against Steve Bruce’s team who are very strong in general at home. The hosts to my mind continue to be under-rated and have won 6 out of 13 home fixtures, losing just twice to Chelsea and Blackpool. You can get 2.04 on them with a 0 ball Asian Handicap, which covers the draw and looks to be great value against a depleted Spurs outfit.

No matter what Ian Holloway does, his team cant stop leaking goals and to me it’s a simple case of not having the quality defensive personnel required to shut up shop. Attack for them is the best form of defence and the bookies continue to be very slow to cotton on to the chance of goals in their home games. All 11 tangerine games have gone 3 goals or more with 5 (45%) going 4 goals or more. They face Villa who have also seen 67% of their away games go over 3 goals so they aren’t exactly going to park the bus either.  I will take the 1.79 on over 2.75 goals in this market.

Aside from those 2 main bets, its hard work finding value this weekend and the 3 shortlist bets highlight this. Birmingham are very solid at home but the 1.78 0 AH is a bit short in price to be a main bet against a Stoke team who are improving but continue to struggle on the road in general.

Man City will be happy to draw away at Utd as it keeps them in the hunt for the top 4 spot (their ultimate goal this year – not the title) and so the 1.83 on less than 3 goals appeals as a shortlist bet. Fulham continue also to be under-rated goals wise at home and even though Chelsea were toothless last weekend, prior to that they had found their shooting boots. Hopeful of seeing some goalmouth action at Craven Cottage this weekend so over 2.5 goals is the call with stats backing this up as one to be on.

Main Bets
1 pt Sunderland 0 Asian Handicap V Spurs. 2.04 Ladbrokes
1 pt Over 2.75 goals. Blackpool V Aston Villa. 1.79 5Dimes

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Birmingham 0 Asian Handicap V Stoke. 1.78 Pinnacle/188bet
1 pt Under 2.5 goals. Man Utd V Man City. 1.83 Pinnacle
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Fulham V Chelsea. 2.08 188bet/Canbet/SBObet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

Mike’s Football Bets 11th February

Not the easiest looking betting fixtures this weekend in the top flight and just the 2 Main bets from me, starting off with the game at the Stadium of Light between Sunderland and Spurs.

Spurs have struggled lately with injuries to the creative hub of their team with the likes of Modric, Bale and now Van der Vaart all out. To make matters worse they face a very tricky fixture against Steve Bruce’s team who are very strong in general at home. The hosts to my mind continue to be under-rated and have won 6 out of 13 home fixtures, losing just twice to Chelsea and Blackpool. You can get 2.04 on them with a 0 ball Asian Handicap, which covers the draw and looks to be great value against a depleted Spurs outfit.

No matter what Ian Holloway does, his team cant stop leaking goals and to me it’s a simple case of not having the quality defensive personnel required to shut up shop. Attack for them is the best form of defence and the bookies continue to be very slow to cotton on to the chance of goals in their home games. All 11 tangerine games have gone 3 goals or more with 5 (45%) going 4 goals or more. They face Villa who have also seen 67% of their away games go over 3 goals so they aren’t exactly going to park the bus either.  I will take the 1.79 on over 2.75 goals in this market.

Aside from those 2 main bets, its hard work finding value this weekend and the 3 shortlist bets highlight this. Birmingham are very solid at home but the 1.78 0 AH is a bit short in price to be a main bet against a Stoke team who are improving but continue to struggle on the road in general.

Man City will be happy to draw away at Utd as it keeps them in the hunt for the top 4 spot (their ultimate goal this year – not the title) and so the 1.83 on less than 3 goals appeals as a shortlist bet. Fulham continue also to be under-rated goals wise at home and even though Chelsea were toothless last weekend, prior to that they had found their shooting boots. Hopeful of seeing some goalmouth action at Craven Cottage this weekend so over 2.5 goals is the call with stats backing this up as one to be on.

Main Bets
1 pt Sunderland 0 Asian Handicap V Spurs. 2.04 Ladbrokes
1 pt Over 2.75 goals. Blackpool V Aston Villa. 1.79 5Dimes

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Birmingham 0 Asian Handicap V Stoke. 1.78 Pinnacle/188bet
1 pt Under 2.5 goals. Man Utd V Man City. 1.83 Pinnacle
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Fulham V Chelsea. 2.08 188bet/Canbet/SBObet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

A Drunkard’s Betting Walk

The next time you stagger home from the pub a little worse for wear and you receive ‘that look’ from your nearest and dearest, if all else fails, you could try explaining that you were giving yourself a valuable lesson in probability theory.

I’ve recently been caught up in a new book called ‘The Drunkards Walk’ which explores the concept of randomness and how it impacts us in everyday life. The phrase ‘a drunkard’s walk’ was coined by a certain Albert Einstein to explain how in many things in life from the movements of tiny molecules to weather patterns are as predictable as the individual steps of a drunk person on their way home from the pub.

What interested me most of course is how randomness affects us all from a betting perspective and how as humans we regularly make the wrong calculations or assumptions based on our poor understanding of it.

A lot of it applies to betting and the world of tipsters and systems so let me explain with some key concepts.

The Gamblers Fallacy

The gamblers fallacy is one such term explained by the book that is relevant to betting (one of many), which most of us at one point will have fallen victim to. Consider if I tossed a coin 100 times and picked heads only 44 times out of 100. Our natural thinking is to assume that there is likely to be more tails than heads in the next 100 to catch up.

Right? …. Well wrong actually as this is the fallacy in action as the coin will not develop a bias towards tails to catch up. The coin itself doesn’t have a clue that it’s flipped more tails than heads – it’s a coin after all! On the 101st throw it will still remain a 50/50 chance it will be either tails or heads.

While that may make sense to most of us when we observe the simply coin flipping analogy, unwittingly we sometimes unconsciously fall foul to this mistake on a regular basis when we consider being in or out of form. A run of good form doesn’t mean a period of bad form is due and vice versa.

Over the fullness of time and stats (perhaps 10,000 throws) you will get closer to the 50/50 exact outcome but over short samples – randomness rules!

Expert or Just Plain Lucky?

I also found the book explained another term applicable to the betting and tipster world called the ‘hot-hand fallacy’. This theory basically states that if enough people try their hand at predicting something, someone by chance will be extremely successful.

The example the book uses is the American pundit who correctly predicted turns in the stock market in 18 out of 19 years. An outstanding record that beat many ‘experts’ hands down!

What was his secret you may ask?

Well nothing more than basing his predictions on what team won the US Superbowl that year…or in other words, pure luck! What this means now that the Green Bay Packers just won this year’s – who knows!

Perhaps this is why we see some tipsters or systems have an amazing burst of form, which they are then never able to maintain long-term. They simply got lucky at the start and were no more a betting expert than I am on the intricacies of cross stitch knitting.

How Do We Avoid These Traps?

How therefore do we avoid getting caught up following a system or tipster that has simply got lucky like the ‘Superbowl pundit’ above?

Well the answer is fairly boring in that it’s often nothing more than….

  • - Observing a large number of bets.
  • - Observing performance over time.
  • - Professional statistical analysis.
  • - Expert judgement.

All these things combined can help protect you as much as possible from falling prey to lucky tipsters or systems. It can take time and effort though to apply all of this, which is where we come in at the Secret Betting Club.

We only recommend services that have

  • - Proven themselves over many hundreds if not thousands of bets.
  • - Proven themselves over at least a 12 month period (with very rare exceptions).
  • - Proven themselves over different conditions (especially relevant for horse racing tipsters).
  • - Handled losing and winning runs in a professional manner.
  • - Undergone our full statistical analysis of performance.
  • - Had all aspects of their service thoroughly reviewed.
  • - Offer real value for money.

Those services that tick the right boxes for all these questions and more help to make up our Tipster Hall of Fame, which is currently 16 services strong. We believe therefore by following them, they offer you the best opportunity to make money betting.

Gain access to our Hall of Fame instantly by taking up a Secret Betting Club membership today.

How To Bet On Corners

We wanted to share an excellent article written by Scott Armstrong of The Sportsman service back on January 10th about betting on corners in the English Premier League. He regularly advises bets in this market for his subscribers and uses his own research and stats on this market to pick out value bets that the bookmakers offer.

If you are looking to make money betting, you could do a lot worse than specialise in such a market, or follow an expert like Scott!. There are plenty such experts in our Secret Betting Club Hall of Fame.

Over to Scott and his corner market analysis of the action just a few weeks ago…

A return to looking at Premier League sides corners statistics this week as I pinpoint some recurring areas to look for profit. 11.5 is the line I am using for the over’s and under’s corners mark. Tottenham with the marauding Gareth Bale are proving to be Kings of the over’s. In 16 Premier League matches Spurs have gone over on 11 occasions, a 69% strike rate. They are especially prevalent at home with 6 from 7 League matches at the Lane going over. Conversely there’s not a great deal of corner action at the DW stadium where all 9 of Wigan’s home matches have went under 11.5 corners.

With half the season almost gone in the Premier League it looks safe to say that Wolves tremendous corners record is not merely a freak occurrence. With 16 matches played the team who sit 2nd bottom of the league have gained corners supremacy in 8 games, drawn 6 and lost just 2. The best way to make a profit from this knowledge looks to be to play them gaining a corners handicap against the League’s elite sides. At Stamford Bridge they drew with Chelsea on the corner count 8-8. Away to Manchester United they lost only 2-3 and at home to Arsenal they out cornered the League leaders 5-3.

Two teams to oppose on corners markets are Blackpool and Blackburn. Blackpool love an open match although their total match corners have not been particularly high. From 15 matches they have only won corners supremacy 4 times and have particularly struggled at Bloomfield Road gaining most corners in only 1 match from 6.

Of the promoted sides West Bromwich Albion with the likes of Chris Brunt and Graham Dorrans are faring best when it comes to racking up corners winning corners supremacy in 7 matches from 8 a 88% strike rate.

Bets to look out for: Spurs over the 11.5 corners line at around 10/11. Wigan under 10.5 corners around evens at the DW and Wolves on the corners handicap +4 against the elite sides in the league at evens/11-10. Oppose Blackpool at home on the corners count and side with West Brom corner supremacy at home.

This is just one excellent niche betting strategy that many of the recommended tipsters we feature at the Secret Betting Club help to make money.

Mike's Football Bets 3rd February

I want to get my bets in early this weekend as I am concerned that my best value bets often seem to diminish in price over time, which is a pattern I have spotted of late.

Value wise, the overs market in the game between the Hammers and the Brummies looks to be fantastic.  Consider that in the past 2 seasons, West Hams home games have gone overs 60% and Birmingham’s away games 63%, you would think the odds would reflect that. Not so as you can get 2.12 from Pinnacle which equates the chance of 3 or more goals as 47.16%, when the stats say differently. Logically as well West Ham have a leaky defence and Birmingham nowhere near as solid as last year either.

Man City are also under-rated against West Brom, who are another side struggling at the back and I can’t see them coping with the movement from Silva, Tevez and Dzeko. I expect an easy home win here and the 1.79 from 12Bet on City to overcome the -1 Asian Handicap jumps out.

As Harry Redknapp love to say, Spurs are down to the ‘bare bones’ and it’s no surprise to see them struggle creatively midweek with the likes of Bale, Modric and Pienaar all out. This season both Spurs at home and Bolton away have gone under 2.5 goals in 67% of games and with Bolton’s strikers also far from prolific recently, I think the odds of 2.05 on less than 3 goals is too big.

One team that doesn’t struggle to score is Arsenal and they have gone overs 58% of the time away from home, whereas Newcastle have a 67% record at St James Park. This makes sense as with 50,000 Geordies willing you on, they have to attack teams and I expect Arsenal to find plenty of space to exploit. The 1.90 on over 2.5 goals is my final main bet.

Elsewhere, 2 shortlist bets and I am taking Villa to continue their recent improvement against a Fulham side that will go for the draw so the -0.25 handicap offers some appeal here. Chelsea should also have far too much against a better looking Liverpool team, who will be really tested at the back against Torres, Drogba, Anelka et al. On there day these 3 will eat the likes of Kygriakos for breakfast and I fancy a home win here. Not great value in the odds so just a shortlist bet.

Main Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. West Ham V Birmingham. 2.12 Pinnacle
1 pt Man City -1 Asian Handicap V West Brom. 1.79 12Bet
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Newcastle V Arsenal. 1.90 Pinnacle
1 pt Under 2.5 goals. Spurs V Bolton. 2.05 12Bet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Aston Villa -0.25 Asian Handicap V Fulham. 1.77 12Bet
1 pt Chelsea -0.75 Asian Handicap V Liverpool. 1.78 10Bet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

 

 

 

Mike’s Football Bets 3rd February

I want to get my bets in early this weekend as I am concerned that my best value bets often seem to diminish in price over time, which is a pattern I have spotted of late.

Value wise, the overs market in the game between the Hammers and the Brummies looks to be fantastic.  Consider that in the past 2 seasons, West Hams home games have gone overs 60% and Birmingham’s away games 63%, you would think the odds would reflect that. Not so as you can get 2.12 from Pinnacle which equates the chance of 3 or more goals as 47.16%, when the stats say differently. Logically as well West Ham have a leaky defence and Birmingham nowhere near as solid as last year either.

Man City are also under-rated against West Brom, who are another side struggling at the back and I can’t see them coping with the movement from Silva, Tevez and Dzeko. I expect an easy home win here and the 1.79 from 12Bet on City to overcome the -1 Asian Handicap jumps out.

As Harry Redknapp love to say, Spurs are down to the ‘bare bones’ and it’s no surprise to see them struggle creatively midweek with the likes of Bale, Modric and Pienaar all out. This season both Spurs at home and Bolton away have gone under 2.5 goals in 67% of games and with Bolton’s strikers also far from prolific recently, I think the odds of 2.05 on less than 3 goals is too big.

One team that doesn’t struggle to score is Arsenal and they have gone overs 58% of the time away from home, whereas Newcastle have a 67% record at St James Park. This makes sense as with 50,000 Geordies willing you on, they have to attack teams and I expect Arsenal to find plenty of space to exploit. The 1.90 on over 2.5 goals is my final main bet.

Elsewhere, 2 shortlist bets and I am taking Villa to continue their recent improvement against a Fulham side that will go for the draw so the -0.25 handicap offers some appeal here. Chelsea should also have far too much against a better looking Liverpool team, who will be really tested at the back against Torres, Drogba, Anelka et al. On there day these 3 will eat the likes of Kygriakos for breakfast and I fancy a home win here. Not great value in the odds so just a shortlist bet.

Main Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. West Ham V Birmingham. 2.12 Pinnacle
1 pt Man City -1 Asian Handicap V West Brom. 1.79 12Bet
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Newcastle V Arsenal. 1.90 Pinnacle
1 pt Under 2.5 goals. Spurs V Bolton. 2.05 12Bet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Aston Villa -0.25 Asian Handicap V Fulham. 1.77 12Bet
1 pt Chelsea -0.75 Asian Handicap V Liverpool. 1.78 10Bet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

 

 

 

Mike's Football Bets 2nd February

Mike’s Football Bets

The over 2.5 goals market was good to us just over 10 days ago and once again I have spotted a couple of games where I feel the odds on offer are out of sync.

It might be no surprise that I am tempted by the over 2.5 goals market in the Blackpool – West Ham game. The reverse fixture between these 2 earlier in the season somehow finished 0-0 in a game of so many missed chances it would make Ronnie Rosenthal blush (check out this beauty). Blackpool have gone overs in 100% of all home games whilst the Hammers have done so in 58% of all away fixtures. Both teams have strengthened their attack in the transfer window but have not addressed their Achilles heels – their leaky defences. Despite this fact, Stan James are offering 1.73 in this market (57.8% chance) so clear value here.

Fulham are also a team often under-estimated in their ability to score goals and it’s the same again as they are priced up at 2.25 in the over 2.5 goals market against Newcastle. I really rate the Cottagers forward line with Moussa Dembele and Andy Johnson back fit and Clint Dempsey continuing to shine. The shaky Geordie defence could be in trouble here. Fulham have gone overs in 50% of home games, and Newcastle 45% of away games, which suggests odds of 2.10 would be fair, so the 2.25 is clear value again. I was close to advising a bet on Fulham to win but at 2.10 as well so a home victory wouldn’t surprise me.

Shortlist bet wise, I also want to back both Liverpool and Bolton to continue their generally good home form against two teams who really struggle on the road. With so much change at Liverpool of concern to me and lower odds on Bolton than I would like, they just fall short of being Main bets but I believe both offer value.

Main Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Blackpool V West Ham. 1.73 Stan James
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Fulham V Newcastle. 2.25 Canbet/SBOBet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Liverpool -0.75 Asian Handicap. 1.84 Stan James
1 pt Bolton to beat Wolves. 1.88 5Dimes/Pinnacle/12Bet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike