Why some racing tipsters quote misleading odds & how to avoid being duped

 

One of the most important issues facing many racing tipsters these days is that of odds availability.

Can you as a punter realistically obtain the odds that a tipster puts forward?

For some popular or free tipsters like Hugh Taylor and Pricewise it’s always been an issue as the weight of money behind their tips forces the odds in very quickly indeed.

Yet it is also now a growing issue for other less well-known tipsters too – especially horse racing experts that put up bets the night before a race runs.

Because whilst it might make sense to follow a tipster snapping up the earliest value – in reality, it can cause you all kinds of problems.

Allow me to explain more, including why some unscrupulous tipsters are taking advantage and catching unwary punters out

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The Evolution Of Racing Bookmaking

To help explain the current issue with taking early odds, it’s worth a quick walk down memory lane to understand how betting on racing historically worked.

Back in the good old days, most major bookmakers employed large teams of racing traders who would price up each race meeting and manage a traditional racing book.

As money flowed in a market, the odds for each horse would change as each firm managed their liability and tried to work an overall profitable position.

Occasionally, some bookmakers would find themselves getting filled in and taking a hit if getting it wrong, yet their in-built over-round always ensured that long-term, they would usually make a profit.

With the introduction of betting exchanges, all of this changed.

Nowadays, large-scale racing trading teams are a thing of the past, with almost all bookmakers basing their odds on what happens on Betfair.

If money comes in for a horse on Betfair – the bookie slashes its prices to reflect that. The opposite rings true on horses that drift in price although generally bookies are much slower to put their odds up than down!

Ultimately, the art of building a racing book has been lost.

And this in turn has impacted how we as punters get on and how the markets react to shrewd money.

Why Odds Are Odd When Betting Early

This sea change in the world of racing bookmaking has had a major knock-on effect for those punters keen to bet early – especially in your bog-standard racing fare.

For most horse races these days, you can expect to see the first odds start to appear around 4 to 5pm the day before racing is due to take place.

As the evening wears on, a few more firms will start to quote odds until there are a handful of bookmakers pricing up each horse in a race.

The problem is these prices are based on a very small amount of trading seen on Betfair – which is usually not much money at all.

And without a decent Betfair market to guide them and very little ‘racing expertise’, the bookies know they are vulnerable to shrewd punters who try and snap up the value odds on any overpriced horses at this point.

Therefore, even moderate sums of money coming in for a horse (especially at big odds) will see its price collapse in no time and the accounts of those placing such bets eyed with suspicion.

The Accountant

 

Tipsters & Their Quoted Prices

It is this issue of slashing odds that causes such a problem for tipsters who post up bets the evening before racing.

The general logic is that the earlier a tipster puts up a tip, the greater chance its odds will move downwards*

*Although it’s important to make the distinction here that betting in the major race meetings such as Cheltenham or on the big Saturday/Sunday featured races won’t see the same level of movement.

For those tipsters with a large subscriber base, there is zero chance the quoted odds will hold up.

It’s all too common to see a price of 20/1 quoted by a tipster, yet within minutes it’s a best 16/1 or 14/1. Come the morning of the race its 10/1 and it starts at 8/1 SP.

Considering betting profitably is all about value, even a change from 20/1 to 16/1 can and does make a major difference to your bottom line.

Taking 8/1 or 10/1 on a 20/1 shot isn’t worth thinking about neither – and by doing so you are actually more likely to turn a loss then a profit.

A 26% Drop In ROI After Just 15 Minutes!

Yet despite these clear issues with early tips – some unscrupulous tipsters continue to wilfully take advantage and claim what might be termed ‘fictional odds’ for their advised bets.

A clear example of this came from one racing tipster we reviewed here at SBC in 2017 who claimed a ROI of 46.6% from 880 bets over a 14-month period.

A 46.6% ROI on the face of it is phenomenal – far and away the best ROI we would have ever seen from any tipster over a long-term period.

The problem was – yep, you guessed it. This tipster was putting up bets at 5/6pm the evening before racing that disappeared almost as quickly as he put them up. I know this because as part of the SBC review, my team tracked the odds movement for 135 of these tips, which revealed some significant differences.

These 135 tips in isolation fared well, hitting a 70.6% ROI during a purple patch for the service, yet within 15 minutes of the tip being advised, the overall ROI dropped as much as 24.6%

By 8am on race day, the difference was -60.2% ROI and by 10.30am, it was -67.5% ROI!

The average odds also went from 12.48/1 down to 10.88/1 within 15 minutes – suggesting the odds on his tips were slashed very quickly indeed. You can see the full findings below:

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So, whilst the odds this tipster quoted were indeed accurate at the time advised, practically no-one would be able to get on more than a few quid before the prices were slashed. Even if you did get on – most bookies would take one look at your betting history and quickly restrict or close your account.

You would be a marked man, because if there is one thing that will get a bookies attention it is constantly backing a horse that drops significantly in price after you get on.

Odds Tracking Is A Must For Any Racing Review

This story outlines very neatly exactly why every genuine tipster review MUST feature an element of odds-tracking.

We perform this as standard for every major tipster we review and whilst it is hard-work and time-consuming, it is hugely valuable.

We track not only performance to the quoted odds, but the best odds after 15 minutes, 60 minutes, at 10.30am, SP, Betfair SP and other relevant time periods.

By doing so we can quickly identify those tipsters putting up genuine odds and inform you as to how achievable the odds are (or not).

The tipster I reference above received a poor SBC rating following their review due to the very obvious odds availability issues. He certainly had an eye for a horse, but its highly unlikely many punters would be able to follow and obtain the same level of performance.

Instead of claiming a 46.6% ROI from these odds, he would have been far better aiming for a realistic 15% ROI by putting up bets at 10.30am when most punters could get on.

The good news is that there are numerous tipsters that we rate and recommend here at SBC who do play fair by the odds they quote for subscribers.

They might not be able to claim a 46.6% ROI, but at least you know what they do offer is realistic and fair.

Many of them can be found within our Hall of Fame listings and reviews, which you can obtain full details on with a Secret Betting Club membership.

Whatever you do though, be very wary of any tipster quoting results based on tips sent the day before racing. Very often you simply can’t match their results in practice!

P.s. If ever in doubt as to whether a tipster puts up genuine odds – be sure to ask them exactly when they put up their tips and how they settle their results. If they are putting them up the evening before racing and making no adjustments for odds movement, I would advise you to give them a miss!

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Join the Secret Betting Club now and see what all the fuss is about!

See you on the inside

Best Regards,

Peter Ling
Secret Betting Club Editor

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Winning Tipster Puts Up Bet, Slashes Odds (Or Do They??)

One of the biggest issues affecting us punters these days is without a doubt – getting our bets on and obtaining good value odds on the bets we strike.

With bookies sensitive to ‘shrewd money’ especially in markets like horse racing, sometimes obtaining a good price on the bet we want can be a real battle.

Tipster puts up bet, bookie slashes odds…

…or so it goes, especially for some of the most popular tipsters such as Hugh Taylor or Pricewise, where the prices they tip at (and all too often settle at) disappear in a matter of seconds.

Yet all is not lost as with the right data and experts to guide you – it is possible to find genuinely, winning tipsters that quote realistically achievable odds.

Let me explain how using a recent example of a profitable tipster we examined here at SBC.

Intensive Odds Tracking For Each Tipster

Mindful of the issue of odds movement, for each tipster we review here at SBC, we hire a specialist odds checker who tracks and records the odds available to see just how realistic they are.

This odds tracking helps to uncover:

  • How long the odds quoted remain available for;
  • How realistic the quoted odds actually are and if you can achieve them in practice;
  • How the odds move after set time periods (e.g. for a racing tipster – after 15, 30 & 60 minutes, at 10.30am plus Betfair SP);
  • Which bookmakers are being quoted and used.

Once you have this data, it allows you to make some very informed decisions on whether the odds quoted by a tipster are realistic or the biggest work of fiction since Harry Potter!

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Recent Tipster Review Example

To illustrate how this all works, here is an example from one recent tipster review we published.

The review itself focused on a very profitable racing tipster, who since 2012 had advised 2599 bets and made a 15.4% Return on Investment (ROI).

Their strategy was to advise bets in big feature races only, either the big Saturday Meetings or large Festivals like Glorious Goodwood or Royal Ascot. As these betting markets take a lot of money, most tips would be advised late in the evening or early in the morning.

For this particular odds tracking task, our in-house staff member monitored the odds for every tip advised over a 6 week period.

Only quoting the best odds if available with a small panel of bookmakers including: Bet365, BetVictor, BlackType, Betfair Sportsbook, Coral, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, Skybet, Tote and William Hill.

During this 6-week period, our odds tracker monitored 76 bets in total and noted the following for each tip given:

  • The advised odds by the tipster;
  • The best odds available on receipt of tip email;
  • The best odds 15 minutes after receipt;
  • The best odds at 8.00am, 
  • The best odds at 10.30am 
  • The performance at SP

And here is what he found, with the drop between the advised odds and each other category illustrated by the Estimated ROI difference.
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Marginal Odds Movement – Especially Before 8am

Breaking down this table – we noted straight away that there was very little difference in the odds available both immediately and after 15 minutes had elapsed with just a -0.2% and -0.6% swing.

Even at 8am, the difference between the advised odds and what you could obtain was -1.6% and at 1030am, whilst the odds had shifted further, the difference was -5.2%

Remember this service has made a 15.4% ROI long-term, so if getting on by 8am in the morning, you would only lose -1.6% ROI at worse. Leaving you with an actual real-life ROI of 13.8%.

If you couldn’t get on until 10.30 am, this 15.4% ROI, would drop to 10.2% ROI. Not ideal certainly, but still allowing you the chance to get on and make a fair profit.

Ultimately, we have to come to expect with any profitable racing tipster that there will be a degree of odds movement over time. The fact that the possible ROI differences within 15 minutes are as small as -0.6% and leaving you with a 14.8% ROI in reality is very good in today’s betting world.

It is also very important to note how likely it is you might obtain better odds if having access to more firms than the 9 we quoted from in our odds tracking exercise. Opening up the potential to even beat the quoted odds performance.

Why The Bookmakers Quoted Also Matters!

It’s also important to understand which bookmakers are quoted when a tip is put forward and our odds tracking exercise allowed us to report on this as well.

Let’s face it, if a tipster is quoting standout odds of 16/1 with a firm such as Boylesports (widely known to be amongst the worst for restrictions) there is next to no chance you will get on if showing a modicum of profit.

Below you can find the detail on those bookmaker firms that this tipster used the most, with Bet365 clearly the most popular and quoted on 42.3% of occasions.

After that, came Paddy Power, Bet Victor and William Hill with a combined 36.3% of all bets, followed by a few bets with the likes of Stan James, Ladbrokes, Betway, Skybet & Coral.

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Love or hate the likes of Bet365, they are not known as the worst culprits when it comes to either restricting accounts or slashing odds – which makes sense given the odds tracking study we ran.

I have made around 20k per year extra”…

I used to work as trader for Paddypower and Sportsbet so i have an obvious interest in betting. [Using Tipsters] I have made around 20k per year extra.”    
As written by Justin – An SBC member since December 2013

Click here to read more from Justin on his SBC membership experience

How Our Unique Member-Funded Model Can Help You

The above is only a small excerpt from our detailed review of this particular service, but hopefully it goes to show how our analysis can help you genuinely find those tipsters who’s advised odds can be trusted.

For every tipster review we publish, you can expect to read concerted odds tracking analysis to help you understand just how the odds stack up (or not!)

We don’t just analyse odds movements in our reviews either.  We break down other factors such as yearly performance, monthly performance, performance by odds band, performance by racing code, and performance to Betfair Starting Price to name just a few.

We are able to go into such detail in our reviews due to the unique way we are funded by our members. This allows us to not only report back independently (so no affiliate links) but also to spend hours and hours investigating profitable tipsters.

Providing you with evidence of the tipsters making money in practice, not just in theory!

So if you wanted to see how our reviews and reports can help you – why not consider a Secret Betting Club membership?

Best of all, you can currently save up to £38 on the cost of subscription so don’t delay, sign-up right now and let us help you get started betting better right away!

<< JOIN THE SECRET BETTING CLUB TODAY >>

See you on the inside.

Peter Ling
SBC Editor

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