Arsenal v Man City Betting Ideas

In this article, our friends at Football Form Lab analyse the data to find betting ideas for Arsenal vs Man City.

Arsenal v Manchester City: Sunday April 8th 16:00.

Should United beat QPR at Old Trafford earlier in the afternoon, Man City face the prospect of going to the Emirates eight points behind United in the title race. With the stakes this high, surely anything less than a win for City will spell the end of their challenge. Meanwhile Arsenal are locked in an even closer battle for third and fourth, making this a vital fixture for both teams.

So what are the Arsenal v Man City Betting Ideas?

This will be the 15th time City have travelled to Arsenal in the Premier League era and they are still looking for their first win, having lost 10/14 and scoring just five goals in total. Moreover, given City’s recent away record of four defeats in nine, with wins coming against just Aston Villa and Wigan, the Gunners win looks the best value in the match outcome market, especially given they’ve won 11 of their last 14 home matches. Arsenal can be backed at 2.5 to win.

The past two meetings between these teams at the Emirates have ended goalless and this fixture has ended with fewer than three goals in six of the past seven years, while the reverse finished 1-0 to City back in December. It’s surprising to see the bookies go odds against for -2.5 goals, especially considering the fact that City haven’t scored more than once in an away game since the start of November, nine games ago. Eight of those nine away games finished with -2.5 goals with six of the last seven having fewer than two scores.  Under 2.5 goals is a generous looking 2.1.

Following on from this, just two of the last eight editions of this fixture have seen the opening goal in the first half hour, while just one goal has been scored in City’s last seven away first halves. The first goal being scored after 28 minutes can be backed at 2.1.

Matches between these two have been pretty feisty in the past couple of seasons with all five meetings since 2009/10 having at least 50 booking points and with Martin Atkinson in charge there may well be a buying opportunity.

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This Week’s Top Three European Football Tips

It’s been a cracking season so far for the Fink Tank Football Value System with yet another profitable weekend of FA Cup tips just goneWith this in mind we’ve used the strategy to analyse the value European Football Tips for the midweek set of Champions League and Europa League fixtures.

The crux of the Fink Tank system comes by comparing its predictions to the odds available at the bookmaker’s to pick out the best value tips. Its worked well this season domestically in England but what does it suggest for Europe?

Top Three Euro Football Betting Tips

Using the Fink Tank method we have identified the following games as the top European Football Tips from a value perspective: Continue reading

This Week's Top Three European Football Tips

It’s been a cracking season so far for the Fink Tank Football Value System with yet another profitable weekend of FA Cup tips just goneWith this in mind we’ve used the strategy to analyse the value European Football Tips for the midweek set of Champions League and Europa League fixtures.

The crux of the Fink Tank system comes by comparing its predictions to the odds available at the bookmaker’s to pick out the best value tips. Its worked well this season domestically in England but what does it suggest for Europe?

Top Three Euro Football Betting Tips

Using the Fink Tank method we have identified the following games as the top European Football Tips from a value perspective: Continue reading

Champions league value bets: Man City over priced at Villarreal

Value bets for the group stages:

Using the Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings we can also hunt out some value bets the upcoming group stage matches. We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using a value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings imply a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

Here’s what the ratings threw up in the last round of Champions League games. 

Results so far: 
The ratings have flagged up lots of value in the underdogs, but so far, the ratings haven’t landed any major shocks.
Bets: 45
Profit/ loss: -17.75 points
Tuesday’s games:  
First up, here are the English team’s chances tonight according to the Dectech ratings:
  • Villarreal vs Man City: Man City 51.6% Chance. No value with City.
  • Man U vs Otelul: Man U 87.2% chance. No value with Man U.
  • Arsenal vs Marseille: Arsenal 56.1% chance. No value in Arsenal.
  • Genk vs Chelsea: Chelsea 71% chance. No value with Chelsea.
The English clubs are all likely winners but the bookies are offering no value according to the ratings. Continue reading

Football Bulletin: Expect cards-a-plenty at Goodison, but goals might be missing

By utilising the excellent Form Lab Black software, the team at the Smart Betting Club have cast their eye over some of the weekend’s feature games in search for any angles of betting interest.

So far the suggested bets have made a small profit of £1.80 from £50 stakes.

This weekend, we start off with the big clash of the weekend at Goodison Park as Kenny Dalglish takes a Liverpool team back to Anfield for the first time in 20 years. Continue reading

Football Bulletin: Villa – Newcastle, A Game Best Watched On Ceefax?

By utilising the excellent Form Lab Black software, the team at the Smart Betting Club have cast their eye over some of the weekend’s feature games in search for any angles of betting interest.

This weekend, we start off with the game at Villa Park, which if the stats are anything to go by, could be one best watched on Ceefax!

Aston Villa vs. Newcastle

I believe it was Gary Lineker who once famously claimed, “If Wimbledon were playing in my back garden, I would draw the curtains”. With Alex McLeish’s teams, not exactly displaying a Brazilian flare, I’d put them in the same category.

Villa have been level at the interval in 10/21 home matches since the start of last season, while Newcastle have been level at half time in 10/21 away matches. It implies roughly a 50/50 chance of a half time draw, but we can get 2.20 with Bet365 & Coral on that outcome. Continue reading

Champions League Value Bets: Can Anyone Beat Barca?

In last year’s Champions League final, Barcelona gave Manchester United a lesson in how to play football. As good as United were, Barca were just untouchable.

As the 2011/2012 builds momentum, there is a lot of talk about how United have learned from that game at Wembley. But can they do it this time or are the Catalans just too strong?

Likely winner & value bets

To help us determine this, the guys at Dectech have calculated the % chance each team has of winning the Champions League this year. This will adjust as the season progresses, but right now, here are their predictions for the main teams and UK interests. We’ve also added the best bookie odds and whether these offer value.
Continue reading

The Transfer Insider: 5 Days That Could Change Your Season

In this period of transfer market cat and mouse is it too soon to press the button? That is the question facing punters this week as they survey an interesting looking relegation market with a couple of vulnerable big priced runners who may well be very active this week.

QPR have money burning a hole in their pocket but can they bring in enough quality players before the deadline passes? Joey Barton is just one player mulling this over, but who else is Warnock looking to sign? Blackburn also desperately need new faces after failing to convince the likes of Ronaldinho, Beckham and Raul to move to Lancashire, so is the 17/10 on them to go down a worthwhile punt?

At the top end of the table,  Man City’s bloated squad needs chopping down with the likes of Tevez, Boyata, Onuoha and Bellamy all on the move – but to where? Arsenal also desperately need to strengthen and transfer guru Ed, has all the latest on them plus all the key transfer moves – vital for your betting in the Premier League. Continue reading