Win A Free £200 Bet In Our Christmas Giveaway

Its nearly Christmas – the season of goodwill, so what better way to celebrate than getting a gift for free?

And this year we have an excellent gift lined up, where someone can win an amazing £200 free bet, courtesy of the very kind people over at Matchbook. Here are the details:

Enter The Chance To Win A Free £200 Bet With Matchbook This Weekend

To celebrate the continuing success of their massive promotion of 0% commission on football until April 1st & the serious liquidity available in their betting markets, Matchbook are offering Secret Betting Club newsletter readers the chance to win a £200 free bet! 

Simply register, deposit and bet on any of this weekend’s events using the brand new Matchbook platform and you will be entered into a draw at random to win the £200 bet courtesy of Matchbook.

You can also enter on mobile using the new Matchbook iPhone app and bet on this weekend’s football on the move.

This Offer is valid to all Secret Betting Club readers who fulfill the minimum bet requirement of £20 and who signed up as part of the 0% commission offer from the 2nd of Dec 2013. Full terms and conditions can be found below

Click Here To Enter

 


Full T&C’s Below:

  • Entrants must register, deposit & bet £20 stake to qualify for inclusion in the draw.
  • Winner will be chosen at random from qualifying entrants.
  • Bets must be placed on any sporting event settled on Fri 20th, Sat 21st or Sun 22nd of Dec.
  • Closing date for entry to the competition is Sunday 22nd Dec at 11.59pm.
  • Offer is open to any users who registered through the Secret Betting Club link as part of the 0% commission on football offer from the 2nd of Dec.
  • Minimum entry requirement of 100 qualifying participants in the draw
  • Offer applies to customers in the following countries only: United Kingdom, Ireland, Australia, Austria, Canada, Croatia, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland.
  • The maximum free bet that will be awarded is £200, bet must be placed on one bet at odds of 1.5 or greater.
  • Funds must be risked and cannot be bet against your own account. Similarly, void bets do not qualify for this offer.
  • Only one free bet offer per household, IP address or device.
  • Offer applies to users of the www.matchbook.com interface only.
  • The promoter of this offer is Triplebet Limited, and players are subject to – Matchbook’s general Terms and Conditions. In the event of any dispute, Triplebet’s decision is final in all matters. Normal KYC rules apply for all accounts.
  • Triplebet Limited reserves the right to amend these Terms and Conditions or terminate this promotion at any time.

Champions League Value Bets: Small Value In Man U Home Win.

Value bets for the group stages:

Using the Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings we can also hunt out some value bets the upcoming group stage matches. We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using a value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings imply a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

Here’s what the ratings threw up in the last round of Champions League games. 

Results so far: 
The ratings have flagged up lots of value in the underdogs, but so far, but there just haven’t been enough major upsets.
Bets: 59
Profit/ loss: -25.34 points
Tuesday’s games:  
First up, here are the English team’s chances tonight according to the Dectech ratings:
  • Man U vs Benfica: Man U 67.4% chance. Value with Man U.
  • Napoli vs Man City: Man City 45.6% chance. No value with Man City.
  • Arsenal vs Dortmund: Arsenal 45.2% chance. No value with Arsenal.
  • Bayer Leverkusen vs Chelsea: Chelsea 42.3% chance. No value with Chelsea.
The English clubs are all likely winners but the bookies are offering no value according to the ratings.

Here are all the games:

NB bets like Olympiakos & Draw mean the ratings find value in both the draw and the away side so both are backed using a bookmaker’s Double Chance. If a game is missing it means there is no value in any proposition.

Bet Ideas:

You can follow the value bets blindly or use them to inform your own betting. For example, Otelul are big value against United, but if the match were played 1000 times, they’d still only win a handful of times. Therefore you might want to pick and choose or use Asian Handicaps to level the playing field.

With this in mind, here are some of the bets that caught our eye:

  • Moscow Home Win @ 2.41 Pinnacle.
  • Otelul home (+0.25 handiap) @ 2.56 Pinnacle sports.
  • Apoel away (+1) @ 2.16 Pinnacle sports.
  • Bayer Leverkusen home (0) @ 2.53 Pinnacle sports.
  • Olympiakos away (+0.5) @ +2.42 SBO bet.
  • Real Madrid home (-2.75) @ 2.05 SBO bet.

For more tests of ratings, tipsters and systems like this, join the Secret Betting Club. 

 

Premier League Fink Tank Value Betting Results Update

This season in the Premier League, we have been using the free Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings to help us spot value bets.

We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using the same value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings give a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

We’ve been tracking all the qualifiers this season for our members on our forum [membership required]. First here’s a recap on last season’s results. Continue reading

Are Man United more dangerous after a shock defeat?

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab software analyse over performing teams in major European leagues.

Manchester United didn’t just lose against Man City, they were demolished. They suffered their worst home defeat last weekend since the formation of the Premier League, and in the process drifted out to 2/1 second-favourites to be lifting the trophy in May.

A popular theory is that this makes United more dangerous to their opponents in their next game because they are looking to avenge their loss.

But is this true?

We have examined the data across Europe’s Big 5 leagues to find out if there are any trends that might point to an instant return to form for United this weekend against Everton. Continue reading

How to spot when teams are over-performing

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab software analyse over performing teams in major European leagues.

A look at the Big Five European leagues shows that teams that are over-performing in comparison to the previous season tend to fall back during the season and by spotting these sides we have the basis for a successful strategy.

Using a sample that includes almost all Premier League matches since the start of the 1998/99 season we have a total of 920 games where a team has been 4-7 positions higher in the table than they finished the previous season. Had you backed their opponents every time you would have achieved a 5% profit on turnover.  Backing the over-performing side would have yielded a 23% loss and the draw would have been a 15% loss. This is based on average odds, taking the top odds could yield better results.

Narrowing this sample to matches where the teams in question were playing away and were not playing an opponent who also fit the profile we are left with 456 matches and a profit of 13% from backing their opponents (37% loss backing the highlighted teams and 11% loss on the draw). Continue reading

Welsh Dragon to roar? Not likely according to Castrol’s ratings

Last Friday we looked at value bets according to Castrol’s ratings as well as picking out some value bets of our own. Castrol ratings are powered by the Detech, the same team behind the powerful Fink Tank Ratings.

The ratings managed to pick out some huge value in the Euro 2012 fixtures, with a profit of +6.83 points from the 12 points wagered. Highlights include Latvia beating Georgia at 5.68 and Hungary beating Sweden at 4.50. Continue reading

Welsh Dragon to roar? Not likely according to Castrol's ratings

Last Friday we looked at value bets according to Castrol’s ratings as well as picking out some value bets of our own. Castrol ratings are powered by the Detech, the same team behind the powerful Fink Tank Ratings.

The ratings managed to pick out some huge value in the Euro 2012 fixtures, with a profit of +6.83 points from the 12 points wagered. Highlights include Latvia beating Georgia at 5.68 and Hungary beating Sweden at 4.50. Continue reading

Fink Tank Value Picks 2011/2012

Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. We tested their English Premier League ratings in the 2010/2011 season were very pleased with the results, returning over 50 points level stakes profit. 

How we tested it: 

For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank/ Dectech and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds.

Fink Tank/ Dectech provide their predictions in the form of estimated probabilities for the home win, draw and away win. You can then compare this to the available odds to assess whether a particular game offers value.

Here’s how the probabilities are displayed by Dectech/ Fink Tank

For example if the game is Blackburn vs Wolves, Fink Tank might give Blackburn a 51.4% chance. This means that according to the ratings, Blackburn should win 51.4 times out of a hundred.

Finding value

The next step is to find out if those ratings offer value. The ratings might give Man U a 68.3% chance of an away win against Blackpool, but are the bookies taking this into account with the odds they are offering?

Here’s how:

Step 1) First we need to compare like for like. This means we need to see what the ratings percentages are equivalent to in bookie odds.  To work this out, divide 100 by the predicted percentage. So for the Man U game, divide 100 by 68.3. This gives decimal odds of 1.46.

Step 2) Check for value. Now use an odds comparison site such as www.oddsportal.com. If the bookmakers are offering odds above 1.46 on Man U to win, it means there is value in the bet, but if they’re offering odds below 1.46 it means they are being too tight with the odds.

The difference between the predicted probability and the available odds gives you a measure of the % value available.

Here’s a typical table that we worked with:

Ratings Performance in 2010/2011.

We took this value betting approach last season to test the ratings. This meant we’d bet on the team if their predicted chance was greater than the chance implied by the bookie odds. E.g. Dectech gave Bolton 53% chance, the bookies only gave them a 45% chance. It doesn’t mean you’re going to win, just that you are more likely to win that the odds imply.

A point is equivalent to a mythical £1 on every bet.

Here’s the home & away comparison.

Bets Profit ROI
All bets 310 52.37 16.89%
Homes 153 26.6 17.00%
Aways 152 27.6 18.00%

The ratings performed superbly last season when taking this value betting approach. As good as these results appear, it certainly wasn’t a smooth ride with the profits coming in fits and starts, usually as big winners were landed. Notable highlights included West Brom to beat Arsenal away at 17.50, Newcastle to beat Arsenal away at 13.04, Wigan to beat Spurs away at 12.59 and Wolves to beat Liverpool away at 10.00. These four bets alone account for the bulk of the profits made over the season! This is worth bearing in mind before we read too much into last season’s results.

You can check our testing posts from last season with this link. 

 

2011/2012 Season. 

This season we’ll be posting the full list of value picks exclusively on our members’ betting forum, but we will continue to post up a couple of games each week here.

A word of warning though in that the ratings may be a little off in the first few games of the season if they are based on last year’s stats, so we suggest caution in the first few weeks.

As an example, here are 3 of the top value bets from the first weekend of betting in the Premier League this season.

Fink Tank

  • Newcastle Utd – Arsenal:  Newcastle @ 4.33 Corals = 23.84% Value.
  • Fulham – Aston Villa: Fulham @ 2.2 Various bookies = 4.5% Value.
  • QPR – Bolton: Bolton @ 3.47 Pinnacle Sports = 37% value

To get the full list of qualifiers each week, sign up to the Secret Betting Club today. 

Dark horses, sleepers and teams to avoid this football season

Today we released SBC’s Essential Guide to Football Betting stacked with free systems, tipster and analysis for the 2011/2012 football season.

We couldn’t fit all this content in a single edition, so as a special bonus we have made available one of the sections for all to read.

Editor in chief Greg Gordon asked a selection of the football experts that we monitor to provide some ideas on dark horses, sleepers and teams to avoid in this coming football season….

Dark Horses, Sleepers and Teams To Avoid

Having covered The Premiership, We set our caucus of top tipsters the onerous task of unearthing value bets hidden with the morass of Europe’s football markets.

Here is our rundown of the best long-term wagers on offer, those teams to oppose and teams we should side with.

England

Like Scott Armstrong of The Sportsman, Greg Gordon of Scottish Football Bets, and Phil Brown of Betting Laying Club have taken a shine to Brighton.

Phil Says: “I feel Brighton under the guidance of Gus Poyet will give the Championship a real go this season at 20/1 and expect their big signing Mackail-Smith to score plenty of goals.” Continue reading

Final Fink Tank Ratings & Value Picks

You can find some background on this test here.

Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. The Fink Tank team found that shots on target was the best predictor of the outcome of a football game and when you rate this for various attributes you can have a reliable prediction model. For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds. The bigger the difference, the bigger the value on offer in theory.

Update:

It was a storming weekend for the Fink tank ratings, picking up Villa, Spurs and Fulham to win away. The season’s total now stands at 52 points with an ROI of 17%. Not bad at all!

 

This weeks:

Note, if a game isn’t listed, it means there’s no value at all in that game. The ratings have thrown up some big value in certain games this weekend, but they are probably best taken with a pinch of salt with a very different United team likely to run out against Blackpool.

For more tests of ratings services like this in sports from football to horse racing, check out how membership of Secret Betting Club could help you.