football betting

🎧SBC Podcast #64: Nick Goff on Football Betting, Syndicates and the State of the Industry

Posted on by Josh P

In the latest SBC Podcast I am joined by Nick Goff, the professional football punter, former industry trader and member of a highly successful syndicate.

Nick has an extremely interesting back story, with industry experience and management of markets for one of the UK’s leading bookmakers shaping his knowledge and expertise.

Disillusioned with the direction the industry was taking, Nick took the plunge and decided to back his judgement by becoming a full-time bettor seven years ago.

Antepost betting and day of game action make up the majority of Nick’s activity and to complement his own work, he is part of a group of very successful bettors who cooperate in a football syndicate.

With extensive knowledge of ‘both sides of the fence’, Nick is well placed to discuss issues in the industry such as affordability, the White Paper, bookmaker behaviour and suggested policies (such as Minimum Bet Liabilities).

In this interview, we cover it all. Nick has unique insights and I was delighted to be joined by a guest with such extensive knowledge. I enjoyed this chat and I’m sure that you will too!

You can listen to Episode 64 now via Apple / Spotify / Google / YouTube and all other major podcast directories (search Smart Betting Club)

An in-depth chat with a football betting expert

In this episode Nick and I discuss:

  • Nick’s work in the industry, working for four firms that no longer exist and progressing to become the Head of Football Trading at Coral
  • Learning from more experienced experts and amalgamating different insights to form his own punting philosophy
  • Building a bank, playing poker and betting on sports including snooker and NFL
  • Transitioning into full time punting, the challenges this presented and the support around him that helped to make it a success
  • How Nick’s betting has changed over time and how he has had to adapt as early markets have become more illiquid
  • Working cooperatively in a syndicate and finding others who have skills to complement each other
  • Discretion and the need to be less publicly open when working in a team
  • The White Paper, ‘frictionless’ affordability checks, shocking bookmaker behaviour and the state of the debate around gambling in the UK
  • The Black Market, its growth and who is likely to use it
  • Minimum Bet Liability and why Nick feels it an impractical way of dealing with over-zealous restrictions
  • The lack of long-term thinking in the industry to try and create more sustainable markets
  • The lack of expertise at the leading firms compared to ‘yesteryear’
  • 60-70 hour weeks – managing time, taking breaks and finding ways to take a break from an all-consuming role
  • Nick’s stoic attitude towards punting (and life!) and how he meets victory and defeat with the same face
  • Exacting revenge on a rude interviewer!
  • Plans for the future
  • Pearl Jam!

Nick was a fascinating guest and in addition to his insightful views, his outlook was something else that I loved about our chat.

If you would like to hear more from Nick, you can follow him on Twitter (or X!) @nickgoff79 and he writes a regular column for the ‘Not The Top 20‘ website.

Enjoy!

We told you this football strategy was good…here is the proof (3 X betslips)

Posted on by Peter Ling

In the latest SBC Magazine – Issue 124, my team and I published a very detailed review of the winning football betting strategy for usage within bookmaker shops.

Well the good news is that its been working well since football returned and I have several winning bet slips from the weekend just gone to prove this to you!

First of all, I want to show you the best returning betslip (which I placed) – one that hit 6 out of 7 winners and netted a cool £1,463.18 profit.

Only the shortest priced bet of all – West Ham let us down after throwing away a lead twice!

And there was more!

As if more proof was needed, we also obtained some slips from another bettor using the strategy who made a £865 & £1014 in profit respectively from the following betslips

 

Skin in the Game

So there you go – real life evidence of the strategy in action and SBC’s skin in the game following it ourselves.

Don’t forget – these bets are placed in bookmaker shops meaning no name given, no account restrictions and the opportunity to get more money down.

It really is an amazing strategy that I am loving using!

Find out more about it here – https://smartbettingclub.com/winwithfootballcoupons/

Peter Ling
Smart Betting Club Editor

Betting Clever Podcast & Video – Tom Brownlee joins to talk football betting & more

Posted on by Peter Ling

At SBC we’re all about betting clever.

Our brand new podcast series is based on that ethos and it aims to bring you the very best winning betting content from real-life professionals making a living in the industry.

The 2nd episode in this series is out now and features special guest and professional bettor Tom Brownlee.

Tom is owner and founder of the advantage play site Bookie Bashing and is one of the sharpest minds in the professional betting space.

I get the chance to quiz Tom about some really interesting topics including…

  • How Tom bets on football to try and make a profitable edge.
  • The Bookie Bashing football coupon strategy that involves betting in bookmaker shops – this is a good one!
  • Withdrawal strategies – Tom provides some valuable insight into the minefield that is withdrawing your winnings from the bookies.

Tom, as always, is great value and I’m sure there’s plenty of content here that can help inspire your betting in some way. As well as listening to this podcast via all the usual channels, you can also watch Tom and I on YouTube for the first time!

 

 

 

​Watch on YouTube

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Betting in bookmaker shops strategy: A solution to online restrictions in the latest SBC Magazine

Posted on by Peter Ling

I opened my email inbox the other week to another dreaded email from a bookmaker – this time from Betfred

It was titled “Important account info”

And it read…

“Following a review of your account we are no longer able to offer you the concessions of “Best Odds Guaranteed.”

“Your account will also be restricted from any other sports promotional bonus, free bets and cash enhancements ” etc etc – blah blah

You can see a screengrab from the email below

What they really mean by this is the fact I am effectively unable to bet with Betfred at anything beyond a few pounds.

To prove the point I tried to back Rory Mcilroy in running at 33/1 and was offered a max bet of 60p!

Now the reason this account was ultimately closed is because I won too much on it – fair enough you might say, yet such account closures/restrictions are a problem faced by winning bettors at online bookmakers every day. And sometimes it happens even when accounts are not profitable.

Hence why getting round these restrictions and account closures is key to getting money down and succeeding at this game.

It’s a game of cat and mouse and finding a solution is half the battle when beating the bookmaker.

STEP FORWARD A SOLUTION…

In SBC 124, our latest SBC magazine, we review one strategy that gets around this problem almost completely.
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And it’s based on betting on football coupons in actual bookmaker shops – potentially a value betting strategy that you’ve not thought of using.

But yes you can turn a profit at bookmaker retail locations – and a big profit at that!

And you guessed it – I have been able to get my bets on for this strategy with Betfred themselves. They might have banned me online, but I can still bet in their actual shops!

This strategy is proven to work as well having made one bettor using it (and featured in the magazine) over £60,000 @ 25% ROI since 2017.

All whilst staying under the radar of online bookmaker restrictions.

I have been using it myself for a while now and based on my real life experience have added 12 key pieces of advice for the optimal way to carry it out in practice.

It’s a genius strategy and as is available for you to read in SBC 124 as part of an extensive 25 page review!

Gain access to this review (and a lot, lot more besides) the instant you join the Smart Betting Club

Best regards,

Peter Ling

SBC Editor

 

 

 

 

 

Questions or feedback? Email me via pete@smartbettingclub.com

SBC 124 Magazine Contents

 

My Email From Betfred!

 

Expert tipsters speak: Football betting tips this season & beyond

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Last week saw the release of SBC’s new season Football Tipster Guide, featuring reviews, recommendations and detailed insight into 14 of the best football tipping experts we have uncovered over the years.

Inside the guide you can also read our interviews with several of the expert tipsters, where we grilled them not only on their performance but also for their advice on what it takes to make a profit betting.

Based on some of the answers given, I have put together this neat snapshot on some of the key points raised by this gang of experts.

In no particular order then – here are some of the expert tips for profiting on football this season and beyond…

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Use Expected Goals Wisely…

Expected Goals (xG) have started to come into mainstream football conversation recently, but it’s important to know how best to use them – especially from a betting perspective.

Bear in mind that bookies and syndicates alike have been using xG for years, so on its own, using it to choose your bets is no silver bullet strategy. Mike Holden of Fox Punter had these wise words to share on xG:

“Don’t get too fixated by ‘expected goals’. It’s a helpful metric to get a feel for how a team has been performing relative to recent results but no two models are the same and making a random website your primary tool isn’t going to give you any sort of discernible edge on the market.

The big syndicates are using xG models so much more advanced than anything you will find available publicly, and their money one week will shape the market the next. If you think you’ve found an angle due to some xG quirk you’ve casually spotted, you might simply be at the mercy of an inadequate model.

By all means keep abreast of shot data and xG values, just like older punters would have kept abreast of the league tables or form guides in a bygone era. But turning shot data into a profitable system is more about the algorithm you put it through rather than the actual data itself.”

Use Social Media

One bit of modern technology you can use is Social Media as a means of gathering information to help you with your bets, as Brodders explained:

“You can never have enough information. Obviously that’s readily available for the big European leagues but trawl through Twitter and other Social Media to get info on players and teams news which may not be factored in by bookies having to offer prices a few days in advance.”

It’s not just Twitter either, but message boards and fans forums, especially at lower league level or in unfashionable leagues abroad, can be a helpful tool.

Bookies know everything there is to know about team news when Man City play Liverpool, but could they say the same for Arbroath vs Clyde?

Find The Vulnerable Early-Season Favourites…

Although we didn’t see any ‘shocks’ in the Premier League this weekend, one expert feels that value can be had looking for vulnerable favourites across the European leagues in these first few weeks of the season.

An idea put forward by football expert, Motaliz, its logic is based on the fact the World Cup finished just a few weeks ago and many teams have had a disrupted start to proceedings.

“This season comes after the World Cup which means that the transfer market and the set-up of the teams will have a later effect than usual.

This implies that the majority of top teams (the ones that had the most players in the WC) will take some time to gel and click which could generate some early season opportunities for the ones that are able to detect some overpriced favourites.”

The likes of Tottenham & Man Utd might well fall into this category but they came up against an unhappy club in Newcastle and another with its own World Cup related issues (Leicester) last weekend. It’s a strategy I will be keeping an eye over the next few weeks in England and Europe when these big teams face the right opposition.

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Tailor Your Betting To You…

Each of us has a different approach to risk. Some of us wouldn’t think twice before bungee jumping, whilst others wouldn’t get within 200 ft of a bungee cable, let alone jump.

And it’s the same when betting as some of us like to back long-shots and can handle losing runs, whilst others need regular winners and a high strike-rate.

Therefore, the way you bet needs to be tailored to your risk as Greg Gordon puts it “You need to be honest with yourself and find a style of betting that suits your temperament and allows you to flourish.”

It’s a strategy he has applied himself to good effect to avoid the pain of losing as he outlined further…

“There’s a lot to be said for a steady graph and betting in a way that minimises losing runs and keeps the heartache to the minimum. It hasn’t been too painful for me over the years and I’ve tried to make it that way, purposefully. You should too.”

Is It Value & Can It Win?

Greg also had some excellent advice on the theory of finding value, as he fears too many punters purely look at this rather than the reality of whether a bet can win or not. As he puts it:

“I don’t have any strictly price call bets anymore. I always want strong football reasons to play – rather than just a bit of theoretical value.

When you price up a bet now ask yourself two questions: 1) Is it a value price? 2) Do I think it can win? If you can’t answer yes to both questions then I’d inclined to pass.”

Some might well disagree with this statement, yet given that Greg continues to fire in the profits, season after season, he is obviously onto something.

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SBC is dedicated to finding the best tipster services out there, so as you might imagine, advice on how to do that is at the forefront of some of the advice given such as the following points…

Too Good To Be True?

Non-league tipster, Skeeve bangs a drum I regularly hit, advocating caution that ‘if a tipster’s record looks too good to be true, it’s probably fake’ and that ‘if the selections aren’t proofed to a third party (such as SBC), they’re useless. This betting world is full of crooks and scammers, so please be cautious.’

This is particularly the case with many tipsters on social media where it’s very easy to setup new accounts when the old ones start to hit a losing run. If a tipster is unable to provide proof of their results, then move on.

Ask Lots Of Questions…

Another way to avoid being caught out is to do your due diligence as Stuart from Football Investor points out:

“Do plenty of research before joining a service and don’t be afraid to ask them plenty of questions. There are many factors which could impact upon your likelihood of success following a tipster so it’s better to have this information in advance as mistakes can often prove costly.”

Longevity Matters

The length of time a tipster has been in operation is also key as Mike Lindley of Winabobatoo recommends to ‘find a betting service that you can trust and stick with them. If they’ve been around for a long time, they’re probably still here today because they get things right more often than they get things wrong’

After all – the average age of an SBC Hall of Fame service is over 3 years for a very good reason.

Don’t Quit Too Soon!

Finally, I want to wrap up todays email with some very salient advice from Chris Baier from Wisdom of Crowds who talked about ‘the single biggest mistake punters make’ – over-reacting to bad form and making key decisions based on this.

Chris wrote how he had seen this take place not just in the betting world, but also the financial world stating that:

“I recently saw the records of a very successful US Hedge Fund, that showed over 40% of their lifetime client base had actually lost money while investing with the fund!

This fund had a relatively consistent record of double digit annual gains over decades.”

What was the reason 40% of clients made a loss from this successful fund?

“Bad timing and illogical emotion” whereby those following the hedge fund bought into it when it was doing well and sold when doing poorly.

So instead of letting the markets do their thing and watching it all dispassionately, many of those who posted a loss thought they knew better and took their money out or added more at the wrong time.

I see this all the time when betting as punters flit from one winning service to another, rather than simply choosing a good one and sticking with it. And that ultimately can be very costly!

Grab Your New Season Football Guide

I hope you have enjoyed this small snapshot into the interviews as found within this new season football guide.

You can read all of the interviews in full, alongside detailed write-ups, analysis and ratings on the best tipsters to follow thoughout the guide.

Available to download the instant you join the Smart Betting Club.

Best Regards,

Peter Ling
Smart Betting Club Editor

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Why so many football punters suffered ‘away day’ blues last season. 2017/18’s strange stats

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Whilst the 2017/18 football season in England will be remembered for many things – Man City’s 100 points, Wolves domination of the Championship and of course, little Accrington Stanley taking the League 2 title, for those of us that enjoy betting on the beautiful game, it will be remembered for some very different reasons.

Primarily this is down to some strange statistical quirks we saw throughout the top 4 English Leagues during the 2017/18 season. Stats that can teach us plenty about variance, luck and most of all – the patience needed to make a profit football betting.

Patience for many can be a dirty word when betting – especially from those punters not used to handling losing runs (I understand this – they can be tough!) but the reality is it’s something we all most get to grips with if we ever want to make our betting really pay.

It’s easy when you are winning but you find out the most about yourself and your betting when in a bad patch. After all – even the best punters are not immune to having a bad football season as pro punter Rory Campbell admits to in part 1 of these excellent videos.

So, in today’s email I want to showcase with you some strange stats for the English season in 2017/18, why ‘underdog’ backers suffered a huge drop AND just how you could have made a huge profit blind backing away teams.

(Note – all stats are based on the best odds available on the day of each game and at 10 point level stakes. It also runs up to the end of April – I have been unable to get stats on the last set of fixtures in the 3 lower leagues and last 2 fixtures in the Premier League as yet.)

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Why Football Betting Last Season (in England) Was So Strange

One of the biggest statistical quirks witnessed during the 2017/18 season for the top 4 English leagues was the form of what I term ‘underdogs’ away from home – those teams priced at 7/4 and above.

This is a particularly important trend as a lot of pro punters and tipsters regularly focus on value away from home, especially at the bigger prices (so 7/4 and above). Therefore, the form of these teams is vital, yet in 2017/18 we saw a major drop in the number of ‘underdog’ away wins.

To set the scene, for the 10 years prior to the 2017/18 season, below I have listed the average performance of away teams priced at 7/4 and over (if blindly backing all away teams at these odds). As with all the stats in this article, all bets are calculated to 10 point level stakes to win.

Away Teams 7/4 & Over 10 Season Total Loss: -3162 points, ROI -2.1%, 24.9% strike rate

Over an average season, we can reasonably expect to post a 316 point loss at -2.1% ROI and to hit a 24.9% strike-rate.

With only a -2.1% ROI to overcome, it’s easy to see why this is an area of intense focus, because with the right strategy, a profit is there to be made by filtering out unprofitable away underdogs.

Any strategy is always vulnerable to short-term fluctuations (Yes, I will call a season short-term as it’s not a huge data sample) and 2017/18 was a case in point. This is because backing away underdogs during the 2017/18 season generated the following figures:

Away Teams 7/4 & Over 2017/18 Season Total Loss: -1270 pts, ROI -9.2%, 23.2% strike rate

In short, the average points lost rose by 954 points, the ROI dropped 7.1% and the strike-rate by 1.7%.

Whilst a -2.1% ROI might be overcome, it’s very difficult to turn around a -9.2% ROI into profit if backing away teams 7/4 and over.

There were also clear fluctuations across each of the 4 English leagues as follows for these bets 7/4 and over:

Premier League: -370pts , ROI -14.9%, 17.7% strike rate

Championship: -294pts, ROI -7.7%, 24% strike rate

League One: -121pts, ROI -3.2%, 25.4% strike rate

League Two: -485pts, ROI -13.2%, 23.6% strike rate

League 2 was particularly bad with a -13.2% ROI and to put its specific stats in context, the worst season prior to 17/18 for League 2 was 14/15 with -152 points and -3.6% ROI.

When Backing Away Teams Has Been Profitable

To further back up what a strange season 2017/18 was, those of you blindly backing all away teams under 7/4 will conversely have made a fine profit.

That is because if backing all away teams to win at odds under 2.75 (staking 10 points on each bet) in the Premier League , Championship, League One and Two you would have made a profit of 471 points at 8.5% ROI and hit a 48.9% strike-rate.

It’s not very often than you can blindly back favourites away from home in all those leagues and get a nice profit, yet that is exactly what happened in 17/18.

This trend gets stronger if we drop the Premier League and concentrate on the 3 lower leagues.The profit rises to 531 points and the ROI goes up to 11.7%!

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What Can We Do About This?

So with all the strange patterns seen in the 2017/18 season, what are we to do as punters?

The first thing when we see trends like this is to ask if anything has changed to influence a lower strike-rate of winners away from home.

Are away teams less prepared, dealing with longer-travel times or banned from taking away supporters with them for example?

The answer to all of these questions is no. To my mind there is no actual logical reason why all of a sudden, away teams at bigger prices are under-performing.

The reason lies with what is termed Variance, which is something we see over relatively small samples of data.

Variance in its most simple terms is the difference from one data set to the mean. For example, if comparing what we made in one season during 2017/18 to what has been achieved over the past 10 seasons as a whole.

…And when comparing the 17/18 data set from the 10 year average we see plenty of variance at play.

One key reason for this is that football games are in the main tight affairs decided by 1 goal. 1-0 is the most common scoreline historically and even in League 2 this season, 67.31% of all games were decided by 1 goal or less.

The margin for error is therefore very slim and it’s easy to see weird trends like this over a small sample size such as one season.

It’s Your Time In The Game, Not Timing That Matters Most

So there you have it, some strange stats from the 2017/18 season and plenty of food for us football punters.

Ultimately, we can expect to realistically see these away trends change in time and no doubt there will be a season soon when we see the opposite apply – A higher proportion of away winners over 7/4 and a lower number under 7/4.

When exactly this will take place is anyone’s guess (unless you have the ability to predict the future) so we must be patient to wait it out until it does.

As one punting pro put it to me lately – it’s not the timing of when you start betting, but your time in betting that matters most.

Because as long as you have a valid long-term method, you might be unlucky based on when you start and the early results but long-term it will all even out in your favour.

As long as you have the patience to STAY IN and ride out quirky stats like seen above.

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Why We Recommend Tipsters With Long-Term Records Only

We apply this long-term logic to the tipsters we review and recommend, preferring to judge tipsters over a deep set of stats, rather than a few months here and there.

Any tipster can pick up a few winners by chance over a few weeks or even months, yet it’s only when they have a definitive edge long-term that we can rely on them to make us money.

It’s why the average length of time a SBC Hall of Fame rated tipster has been going for is over 4 years, because these are the tipsters that have proven themselves profitable long-term.

After all, were we to judge a tipster over a shorter period of time, we might find ourselves recommending tipsters who have an edge simple due to luck, rather than skill.

A football tipster that made a profit by backing away teams under 7/4 last season would be a prime example. Do they have a real edge or were they just lucky given the higher than average proportion of winners at these odds last season? Ultimately, only time will really tell on that front.

So, if you are after long-term, sensible advice on the best tipsters with proven records making money betting, do consider a Smart Betting Club membership.

You can get started instantly with a 90 day anytime money back guarantee to boot.

Sign-up To The Smart Betting Club

Best Regards,

Peter Ling
Smart Betting Club Owner/Founder

Rocket Scientists Look Away – Football Betting Made Easy

Posted on by Mike

When I tell people about my gambling activities, their reaction usually follows a three step pattern:

  1. Concern for my well being.
  2. Intrigued that you can actually make money betting.
  3.  Laugh and say it all sounds a bit complex to them – They’ll stick to betting on the horse with the funniest name in the Grand National.

But you don’t need a degree in rocket science to make money, especially with football betting. In fact I’ll prove it to you….

An Easy To Follow Football Tipster

Take for example the football tipster service we reviewed in our latest Smart Betting Club magazine (published earlier this week), which is simplicity itself to follow.

They are a long-established football match-ratings and betting advice service who have developed a huge database on the sport. You can follow them in 2 ways…

  1. Follow some of their established football systems and pick up their tips each week. OR
  2. Use their database and ratings to build your own football systems.

The focus of our review was on two of these established football systems, both of which have excellent results and are extremely easy to follow. Allow me to reveal more… Continue reading →

Premier League Fink Tank Value Betting Results Update

Posted on by Dan

This season in the Premier League, we have been using the free Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings to help us spot value bets.

We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using the same value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings give a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

We’ve been tracking all the qualifiers this season for our members on our forum [membership required]. First here’s a recap on last season’s results. Continue reading →

Champions league value bets: Man City over priced at Villarreal

Posted on by Dan

Value bets for the group stages:

Using the Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings we can also hunt out some value bets the upcoming group stage matches. We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using a value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings imply a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

Here’s what the ratings threw up in the last round of Champions League games. 

Results so far: 
The ratings have flagged up lots of value in the underdogs, but so far, the ratings haven’t landed any major shocks.
Bets: 45
Profit/ loss: -17.75 points
Tuesday’s games:  
First up, here are the English team’s chances tonight according to the Dectech ratings:
  • Villarreal vs Man City: Man City 51.6% Chance. No value with City.
  • Man U vs Otelul: Man U 87.2% chance. No value with Man U.
  • Arsenal vs Marseille: Arsenal 56.1% chance. No value in Arsenal.
  • Genk vs Chelsea: Chelsea 71% chance. No value with Chelsea.
The English clubs are all likely winners but the bookies are offering no value according to the ratings. Continue reading →

Are Man United more dangerous after a shock defeat?

Posted on by Dan

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab software analyse over performing teams in major European leagues.

Manchester United didn’t just lose against Man City, they were demolished. They suffered their worst home defeat last weekend since the formation of the Premier League, and in the process drifted out to 2/1 second-favourites to be lifting the trophy in May.

A popular theory is that this makes United more dangerous to their opponents in their next game because they are looking to avenge their loss.

But is this true?

We have examined the data across Europe’s Big 5 leagues to find out if there are any trends that might point to an instant return to form for United this weekend against Everton. Continue reading →