This week has been a particularly difficult week in terms of transfer rumours, largely due to the fact so many teams are away on tour. That said, stuff has still been happening and it is just a case of sifting through it as we edge towards a comprehensive picture of each side’s squad.

I have news and interesting odds on potential moves for Joey Barton (8/1 to Villa) and Wesley Sneijder (7/1 to Man City) and why Cardiff at 24/1 look better value odds for the Championship than either favourites Leicester and West Ham at 9/2.

Last week you could still get 6/5 on Sergio Aguero joining Manchester City and that is basically a done deal now, but the Carlos Tevez affair has hit yet another stumbling block.  Corinthians have pulled out due to the impending closure of the Brazilian transfer window, and City have upped the price to £50million for teams in Europe.  There are probably less than five clubs who can afford this, but, to make that deal happen in the current financial climate, there is the possibility of players being traded in a player-plus-cash deal, but more on that later.

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It seems every week the sagas involving Carlos Tevez, Luka Modric, Samir Nasri and Cesc Fabregas take new twists and turns so I’ll cover these four before moving on and getting into other, faster moving, speculation.

Tevez – He wants to go, City have set a figure of £50million and no one is willing to match it.  This is pretty much the excepted situation so we’ll work on that basis.  Corinthians, his first club, have made a bid in the region of £38m.  They say this is their final offer and so far City haven’t taken it, they’re probably waiting to see if Real Madrid are ready to make a better offer, or if a deal can be struck with Los Blancos involving a player-swap deal.  If no one comes in with a better offer than Corinthians they might take it.  Granted, £38m is cheap for a player of Tevez’s calibre in today’s market but he is desperate to leave and there is little chance of him coming back to haunt his former club if he’s shipped off to the other side of the world, the Brazilian outfit are 5/6 with Blue Square and 888Sport to capture the forward, City are 5/2 to keep hold and Real Madrid are 4/1 to snap him up with the same bookmakers.

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Welcome to this week’s transfer column. I’ve added a handy little update sheet at the bottom of the page to help you plot all the major transfer ins and outs from here on in.

Don’t take it as 100% accurate as I may miss some minor deals, or get the transfer fee wrong, but all the big stuff will be on it and hopefully it will provide a decent reference point for your Premier League bets when you are considering squad changes.

De Gea – A Big Risk?

I’ll start with a few updates on some speculation covered in earlier editions, Manchester United have signed keeper David de Gea from Atletico Madrid as a replacement for Edwin van der Sar.  They’ve forked £20m and some may feel this is a bit of a risk for a 20-year-old keeper but this looks great business considering his experience in La Liga with a relatively big side, and the competition he beat off to secure the top spot in Madrid. However, the transfer has apparently not been greeted with universal approval within United’s camp, with one notable high profile scout at the club offering noted opposition behind the scenes.

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The Transfer Insider – June 24^th

Welcome to this the latest column from Ed Darnell of the Smart Betting Club focusing on all the transfer window news with a betting perspective. Ed will be reporting back on all the latest developments every Friday at the SBC Blog.

I’ve covered Manchester United and the other title contenders so this week I’ll turn my attentions to the promoted sides.  I’m not a proven tipster, but as this is for the SBC I’ll run through a few odds and have an overall look at the market first off, offering my thoughts along the way.

Personally, I’m not a fan of getting into the outright markets at this stage of things.  Too much can happen between now and the start of the season, although we do have the benefit of the fixture schedule, but then again, if you can try and gauge where the market may go then there is money to be made.

I’ve used bet365 for the following odds, but a quick comparison with Skybet and William Hill show very similar trends in terms of favourites for relegation, and Swansea are the massive favourites.  They’re 4/7 with bet365 and Skybet, and an abysmal 4/9 with William Hill, but why? Because they came up in the play-offs? That’s the only reason I can see.  Swansea have been in and around the top teams in the Championship ever since they won promotion from the third tier in 2008, missing out on the top six by small margins for two years before their success last time out, but more on why I reckon they can make a fight of it later. In contrast Norwich have won two promotions in a row and arguably overachieved last season (based on the fact their squad from League One didn’t change that much), yet, presumably because they finished, they’re a slightly better 4/6 to be relegated with bet365.

This isn’t to say I think Norwich are certainly heading for the drop, but I would argue Swansea stand a better chance of staying up at present.  QPR are a different animal altogether and will probably be able to attract a better standard of player, so I’ll deal with them last.

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The Transfer Insider – June 17^th

Welcome to this the 2^nd column from Ed Darnell of the Smart Betting Club focusing on all the transfer window news with a betting perspective. Ed will be reporting back on all the latest developments every Friday and you can find his thoughts last week, including his take on Arsenal, Man Utd & Chelsea at this link.

Last time I covered the title contenders, or the big three, of Arsenal, Chelsea and (of course) Manchester United.  I’m going to have a run through the other likely candidates this week – Liverpool, Spurs and big-money Manchester City.

Can any of these three win the league?  The likelihood is probably not but on the other hand I don’t see why not, especially in the case of City.

Liverpool and Spurs could surprise a few and mount a decent challenge if they manage to invest right in the summer, it is pretty unlikely but both can build and improve on where they finished.

I wouldn’t blame you for disagreeing with me over Spurs and Liverpool, neither came anywhere near eventual champions Manchester United last season but there are other factors to consider.  Spurs had the rather sizeable distraction of the Champions League last season and I doubt they’ll treat the Europa League with the same respect throughout the coming campaign.

Liverpool have no European football to concern themselves with at all – and their form following Kenny Dalglish’s arrival was certainly impressive.

Could this be all set up for the most entertaining title battle in the history of the Premier League? Let’s hope so but I’m getting ahead of myself – time to get down to business.

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