Dark horses, sleepers and teams to avoid this football season

Today we released SBC’s Essential Guide to Football Betting stacked with free systems, tipster and analysis for the 2011/2012 football season.

We couldn’t fit all this content in a single edition, so as a special bonus we have made available one of the sections for all to read.

Editor in chief Greg Gordon asked a selection of the football experts that we monitor to provide some ideas on dark horses, sleepers and teams to avoid in this coming football season….

Dark Horses, Sleepers and Teams To Avoid

Having covered The Premiership, We set our caucus of top tipsters the onerous task of unearthing value bets hidden with the morass of Europe’s football markets.

Here is our rundown of the best long-term wagers on offer, those teams to oppose and teams we should side with.

England

Like Scott Armstrong of The Sportsman, Greg Gordon of Scottish Football Bets, and Phil Brown of Betting Laying Club have taken a shine to Brighton.

Phil Says: “I feel Brighton under the guidance of Gus Poyet will give the Championship a real go this season at 20/1 and expect their big signing Mackail-Smith to score plenty of goals.” Continue reading

How To Judge Just How Potent A Tipster Really Is

Those of you who have spent time researching and following different betting tipsters will know how difficult it can be at times to know exactly how much money they can make you. This is because tipsters (especially the Arfur Daley types) often use many different misleading calculations in order to show their own results in a good light.

The good news is that help is at hand as I want to unravel a few such dodgy tipster practices and also show you one calculation we use here at the Secret Betting Club, which gives you the straight facts on any tipster.

Let’s start off with the ugly side of tipster reporting with a few classic examples of misleading figures that some of the worst tipsters use…

  • Selective Results Reporting
  • Claiming the past 3 months results will have made you £5000, when the 3 months prior to that may have lost you £8000! 
  • Poor Return For Your Investment
  • Claiming to have made £1000 profit, however you would needed to have risked £100,000 in order to make that.
    Ridiculously High Stakes

    Tipsters that work to £500 per bet to try and make their profit figures look more impressive.

It can be a jungle out there trying to find the right tipster but one way to ignore these misleading stats is to use a simple calculation called Return on Capital.

Capital One

Return on Capital (or ROC) is a really effective measure that translates how much your money has grown in relation to its starting point. It is a simple percentage figure, which is very easy to calculate – even Robbie Savage could work it out!
Although if Robbie does join us here at SBC, he will see we also produce the ROC each month for every service we monitor.

To explain ROC, say for example you put £5000 into a high interest account and at the end of the year you had £6000. Well your profit is £1000, but your ROC is the percentage increase, which in this instance is 20%.

(To get this figure simply divide 100 by your starting amount – £5000 and then multiply by the profit – £1000).

Sadly, these days you are very unlikely to get anywhere near that amount of ROC from £5000 in traditional savings accounts.

This is why more and more people are turning to alternative ways of investing their money – such as through betting, where with the right people guiding you, the ROC can be very appealing.

The ROC From Our Best Services

To help explain how useful ROC is a bit further, I am going to show you the exact ROC amounts for each of the 9 top-rated racing tipsters we recommended in 2010. If you have yet to do so, you can see all the profit figures for each of these tipsters at this blog post, but in the table below are the exact ROC figures.

To unpack this table further, we recommend a betting bank figure for each service (2nd column) and next to that you can see the points profit for 2010 that this service made. In the final column is the exact Return on Capital amount in percentage terms.

The top performer was Service 7, with a whopping 455% increase in 2010. To put that in financial terms, if you had started the year with £5000, this would have become £27,552 by the end of it.

Of course they are by far and away the top performers, but still any of Services 3 through to 9 would have made at least 23.72% up to 147.27% ROC.

Much more than any bank is going to offer you in the current economic climate!

And if you find yourself approached by a tipster claiming results that look too good to be true, be sure to ask them about their own Return on Capital. If they don’t know what this is or refuse to answer, then you may well have dodged a bullet!

Find out More

If you find these kind of stats helpful then you will love our monthly Tipster Report, which gives you the latest ROC for around 35 of the very best tipsters out there. We also calculate other useful figures for you, such as Strike-Rate, ROI and our very own power ranking, which we call ROI+.

All of these stats are provided for the most recent month, past 6 and 12 months as well as all-time performance. You have every possible stat to make the most accurate and informed choice as to the tipster(s) that will make you the most money!

Sign up today for instant access with a Secret Betting Club membership.

How To Bet – Understanding Randomness When Betting & Learning To Cope With It

This is the 2nd in a series of articles we are posting from guest contributor – Herbie Fogg on some of the key concepts to be aware of when betting.  This week’s article looks at understanding randomness when betting, how it works and what to do to cope with it.

These articles are originally produced in our free Friday Weekend Wager emails and form part of our goal to help readers understand better a number of key betting topics.

You can read more about Herbie and his free Key Racing News service here.

Coping with Randomness

If offered odds of 6/5 (2.20) about a coin toss you would instantly recognise a value bet. You know the true odds should be even money (2.00). 6/5 might not sound like a lot, but that’s a 20% margin on a 2 horse race.

If you tossed the coin a few times you might win or lose – but over the long term your edge would assert, and a profit of 20% would arise. It’s a question of staying in the game long enough for the maths to play out.

While you bet and wait for the fruits of any value-based approach to play out, it is worth knowing your break even strike rate (BESR):

1. average odds 6/4 (2.50), a SR of 40.00% is required to break even over time.

2. average odds 10/1 (11.00), a SR of 9.09% is required to break even over time.

Calculating and updating the average odds taken and your BESR, is very useful when compared to your actual strike rate. It gives an instant feel for the bigger picture and whether your current strike rate is good enough to stay alive – or, better still, perhaps indicating that you are well ahead of the game and on an inevitable path to profit.

Statistics like that help you to fight through the gloom of losing runs and stay in the game. And that is harder than you may think, because human beings are not programmed to react well to the harsh reality of randomness.

Coping with randomness

Imagine a large square on the floor divided into 4 columns and 4 rows, a total of 16 squares. If you dropped 16 darts blindly, one by one, the last thing you would expect to see would be one dart having landed smoothly in each of the 16 squares. Life, we know, isn’t that simple.

What you would expect would be darts spread about in a random pattern, perhaps with several in closely grouped clumps.

That is why disease and illnesses have ‘hotspots’ or clusters of cases around the country – and yet people instinctively label this news as sinister, even though that is what randomness actually looks like. It would, after all, be far stranger if the cases were evenly spread.

The important thing to realise, is just how badly people react in the face of randomness – and how the mental pressure of coping is apt to drive us to poor beliefs and decisions. With regard to horse racing, the short answer is we give up (that is what people mean when they talk about value betting being an ‘elusive’ concept).

Playing a value-based approach, usually at bigger odds, means there will be lots of losers and the winners will be randomly spread, not in convenient intervals – but in clumps (like the proverbial buses). In the short term, anything can happen.

But when it all comes together profits can accrue very quickly. Even casinos, with the maths calculated precisely in their favour, suffer losing periods of play but rarely as a result decide to leave the casino business. For them (and us) it is about the confidence of knowing it is worth staying in the game.

Betting bank

Short term results, even for a coin toss, can vary widely. Anyone who sits by a roulette wheel soon discovers that 5 red or 5 black spins is a common thing.

We adopt a value-based approach for a reason, but that turns up the mental pressure – especially when the randomness of good and bad months hits home. Coping with that is not easy without a plan.

As experienced players know, the best way to smooth out the journey is with a realistic betting bank and I strongly recommend this approach, revising stakes just once per year.

The greater the number of points in your bank the less pressure you feel. Personally I use a 200 point bank, but there’s no reason why that could not be more. A betting bank helps you stay in the game until profits are delivered – the name of the game in a professional environment. The difference between winning and losing.

Bon chance,

Herbie

Visit Key Racing News

How To Bet – Understanding Randomness When Betting & Learning To Cope With It

This is the 2nd in a series of articles we are posting from guest contributor – Herbie Fogg on some of the key concepts to be aware of when betting.  This week’s article looks at understanding randomness when betting, how it works and what to do to cope with it.

These articles are originally produced in our free Friday Weekend Wager emails and form part of our goal to help readers understand better a number of key betting topics.

You can read more about Herbie and his free Key Racing News service here.

Coping with Randomness

If offered odds of 6/5 (2.20) about a coin toss you would instantly recognise a value bet. You know the true odds should be even money (2.00). 6/5 might not sound like a lot, but that’s a 20% margin on a 2 horse race.

If you tossed the coin a few times you might win or lose – but over the long term your edge would assert, and a profit of 20% would arise. It’s a question of staying in the game long enough for the maths to play out.

While you bet and wait for the fruits of any value-based approach to play out, it is worth knowing your break even strike rate (BESR):

1. average odds 6/4 (2.50), a SR of 40.00% is required to break even over time.

2. average odds 10/1 (11.00), a SR of 9.09% is required to break even over time.

Calculating and updating the average odds taken and your BESR, is very useful when compared to your actual strike rate. It gives an instant feel for the bigger picture and whether your current strike rate is good enough to stay alive – or, better still, perhaps indicating that you are well ahead of the game and on an inevitable path to profit.

Statistics like that help you to fight through the gloom of losing runs and stay in the game. And that is harder than you may think, because human beings are not programmed to react well to the harsh reality of randomness.

Coping with randomness

Imagine a large square on the floor divided into 4 columns and 4 rows, a total of 16 squares. If you dropped 16 darts blindly, one by one, the last thing you would expect to see would be one dart having landed smoothly in each of the 16 squares. Life, we know, isn’t that simple.

What you would expect would be darts spread about in a random pattern, perhaps with several in closely grouped clumps.

That is why disease and illnesses have ‘hotspots’ or clusters of cases around the country – and yet people instinctively label this news as sinister, even though that is what randomness actually looks like. It would, after all, be far stranger if the cases were evenly spread.

The important thing to realise, is just how badly people react in the face of randomness – and how the mental pressure of coping is apt to drive us to poor beliefs and decisions. With regard to horse racing, the short answer is we give up (that is what people mean when they talk about value betting being an ‘elusive’ concept).

Playing a value-based approach, usually at bigger odds, means there will be lots of losers and the winners will be randomly spread, not in convenient intervals – but in clumps (like the proverbial buses). In the short term, anything can happen.

But when it all comes together profits can accrue very quickly. Even casinos, with the maths calculated precisely in their favour, suffer losing periods of play but rarely as a result decide to leave the casino business. For them (and us) it is about the confidence of knowing it is worth staying in the game.

Betting bank

Short term results, even for a coin toss, can vary widely. Anyone who sits by a roulette wheel soon discovers that 5 red or 5 black spins is a common thing.

We adopt a value-based approach for a reason, but that turns up the mental pressure – especially when the randomness of good and bad months hits home. Coping with that is not easy without a plan.

As experienced players know, the best way to smooth out the journey is with a realistic betting bank and I strongly recommend this approach, revising stakes just once per year.

The greater the number of points in your bank the less pressure you feel. Personally I use a 200 point bank, but there’s no reason why that could not be more. A betting bank helps you stay in the game until profits are delivered – the name of the game in a professional environment. The difference between winning and losing.

Bon chance,

Herbie

Visit Key Racing News