I believe that one of the secrets to profitable football betting is knowing when a certain team is suffering from a major over-reaction, normally leapt upon by much of the media and tv/radio pundits as something to discuss. This is either too much praise or too harsh criticism and with this in mind there are a number of such teams I am betting on this weekend who fall into this category.
First up is Liverpool who were deserved winners against Man United last time out and are flourishing from the freshness that Kenny Dalglish has brought and the impact of Luis Suarez has had upfront. They are far from the finished article though, despite some already tipping them for the title next season, nor were they as bad as some ‘experts’ claimed a few months ago. Despite the recent improvement, they are still not convincing defensively especially away from home and with them likely to set up with a 4-4-2 at Sunderland this weekend, I think the 2.42 on Over 2.5 goals in this game is way too big. Admittedly the Black Cats are not exactly banging in the goals themselves but Danny Welback is now back to support Asamoah Gyan and the potency in both attacks is being under-rated here. Odds of 2.42 indicate a 41.3% chance and I make it more 45% and higher.
Another team widely debated of late is Man Utd and its clear to all how much they miss the power and pace of Vidic and Ferdinand who are both likely to be out at home to Bolton. They will also be missing Scholes, O’Shea & Rafael with Fletcher doubtful meaning they will lack at least 4 starting players and they don’t have the replacements of quality to step up. It takes a brave man to back against United at home where they have dropped just 2 pts all season but the +1.25 Asian Handicap for Bolton at 1.95 looks value. Bolton have lost to 5 out of the top 6 away but 4 of those games were by 1 goal margins so they have not been embarrassed by any means.
My final main bet sees another team with a strong home record – Stoke who always target these type of games for three points with the long throws and the barracking of a vociferous crowd. Newcastle have struggled without the influence of Joey Barton in the centre and though they can be frustrating inconsistent I think they may struggle here.
Shortlist wise, I also want to go against the media flow and back Arsenal at 1.83 to beat West Brom. Its second vs. 4th bottom and the Gunners have won 5 out of 6 games away at similar placed teams in the league. Fabregas may well be back and they actually played well initially against United before being sprung on the counter. With a normal build-up to this game, Arsenal would never be as big as 1.83.
Everton are without 3 key players in Cahill, Fellaini and Arteta so creating chances is going to be especially hard for a team that has struggled to score all season. The visit of Fulham is also a real test as the Cottagers have only lost 5 out of 14 away this season, all of which were in games to top 6 sides except for one blip at West Brom. Fulham with a +0.5 Asian Handicap at 1.85 looks value to me with this in mind. The home team have been very inconsistent of late though so only a shortlist selection.
Finally both Spurs and West Ham have been far from prolific at home and away respectively with both of them having under 2.5 goals records in about 61% of games this season. The odds of 2.21 on under 2.5 goals therefore offers a touch of shortlist value.
Main Bets
1 pt Bolton (+1.25 AH) V Man Utd. 1.95 Betinternet/12Bet
1 pt Stoke (-0.25 AH) V Newcastle. 1.97 188bet
1 pt over 2.5 goals. Sunderland V Liverpool. 2.42 12Bet
Shortlist Bets
1 pt under 2.5 goals. Spurs V West Ham. 2.21 Canbet/SBObet
1 pt Arsenal to beat West Brom. 1.83 12Bet
1 pt Fulham +0.5 Asian Handicap V Everton. 1.85 Canbet/SBObet