Football Over-Reactions and How to Benefit From Them

The few days after the first weekend of the football season are always a fascinating time to observe some of the over-reactions that the football betting markets take after just 1 round of games.

Its often a time like no other as a single result such as Wigan’s thumping by Blackpool has a much bigger impact on their odds in certain markets than at most other times during the season (the final few months excepted).

These over-reactions can be a very good thing though as this in turn can open up some interesting looking value bets if you know what your looking for.

Everyone Has To Eat

Its fair to ask just why we see such over-reactions in odds so soon? Well I put it down to the hyped up nonsense we read and hear in the media. Most reporters understand a season is 38 games long and so a team should be judged over the long-term, but then constantly writing this doesn’t sell them newspapers. Everyone has to eat after all! Therefore they often find a story and blow it out of proportion and voila, there is a knock-on effect with bookies and punters. Thats not to say that everything we read and hear is reactionary and untrue but with a shrewd approach you can pick out the wheat from the chaff and potentially benefit from this.

To give an example, lets look at Wigan’s defeat by Blackpool, which was very a poor performance from the home team admittedly.  If taking a different approach you may wish to consider how Wigan have been very inconsistent and ended last season with a 8-2 thrashing yet were taking on a side with fantastic momentum from last season. Call this the ‘Burnley’ effect if you will as they beat both Man United and Everton in the first 2 home games last season – where are they now?

Contrast Wigan then with a team like Wolves who had a good start beating Stoke 2-1 at home. How would you judge these 2 teams (Wigan and Wolves) in a season match bet today?

Well Victor Chandler have an market offering such a Wolves – Wigan season match bet and before Saturdays game, both teams were priced at 5/6. Following Saturday’s games, you can now pick up Wigan at 6/5 whilst Wolves are as short as 8/13.

That’s one heck of a drift for Wigan who last season finished only 2 points behind Wolves. Can so much be taken from just 1 game and is this an over-reaction? My spidy senses tell me so!

Relegation Odds

There are plenty of other areas where we see significant changes simply based upon one game such as the popular relegation market. The aforementioned Wigan were as big as 9/4 before Saturday’s game but now have been slashed into 11/8. Similarly a team such as West Ham have gone from 11/2 to 9/2 after their 3-0 defeat away to Aston Villa.

Next weekend we will see even more changes and movement in odds especially if we see yet more freakish results like in the Wigan – Blackpool game.

I firmly believe that value can be found in these kind of markets if you dig around and take a sensible long-term view in these first few weeks. Good luck if getting involved in these kind of bets and do drop us a line either via email or on the forum if you are.