You can find some background on this test here.
Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. The Fink Tank team found that shots on target was the best predictor of the outcome of a football game and when you rate this for various attributes you can have a reliable prediction model. For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds. The bigger the difference, the bigger the value on offer in theory.
No bets this week, but here’s an update on last week’s picks with results in the far right column.
There were a couple of cases where playing the double chance with the draw would have reaped a nice reward. Spurs v West Ham and West Brom v Arsenal were good examples of this.
It’s also interesting to see where the profits are coming from this season. In previous posts, I’ve outlined how it’s the bets with 10% value or higher which are bringing home the bacon. Along similar lines, backing all bets below 2.25 has lost -8.5 points, whereas backing at 2.25 or above only would so far have made 40 points with an ROI of 23%.
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