SBC’s ‘Top Rated Racing Tipster for 2015’ reveals all.
If your sink needs unblocking, you send for a plumber. Need legal advice? Find a lawyer. Want to know how to make money on the horses? Then find an expert who does just that, and who better to ask than the winner of the SBC’s ‘Top Racing Tipster of 2015’ award?!? (as voted for by SBC members).
That’s exactly what we did in the latest SBC Betting Magazine – Issue 93, as it features an exclusive interview with the man behind SBC members top-rated racing tipster service on the secrets behind his success.
We asked him how he goes about finding his selections, how he keeps track of horses that have caught his eye as winners-in-waiting, how he deals with bookmaker restrictions, and much, much more besides…including how he juggles running a tipster service with a full-time role working as a racing journalist.
Here are just a few of the valuable insights our expert gave us in this fascinating interview, which you can read in full in SBC93…
Our expert on…how he develops a shortlist of value bets:
“There is so much racing over the summer that you have to quickly find ways of chopping down the number of races you study and also the number of horses you consider to be betting propositions in each race.
I usually look for races that are classified as class 4 and upwards (races can vary from 1 to 7 – best to worst – in the UK) and bet mainly in handicap races, in which the favourites have less chance of winning.
In theory, in a handicap race all runners are weighted to have an identical chance of winning, but, based on my knowledge of past races I have watched, I try and find horses that might have run better than their bare form last time out.
This happens when horses have raced under unfavourable conditions last time – for example, did a mud-loving horse run on unsuitably fast ground last time? Did a horse finished well beaten but actually run well from a poor draw at a track with a notorious bias.
The horses handicap mark (which determines the weight they will carry) might have been dropped, even though they’ve actually run well against unfavourable circumstances.
When looking at a race I now split the field into three groups:
1) Those that might not want to win (other race targets in mind, big drifters on the exchanges)
2) Those that have the ability to win but have some form doubts over them (the ground or trainer form etc)
3) Those that look like they have conditions to suit and should be making every effort to win
I am only interesting in backing horses that fall into category three, so I make a value assessment on who is most overpriced of the shortlisted runners in this group, or I back several in a race, sometimes both are effectively main bets, other times, one will be a main bet and the other one will be a saver selection that I have backed merely as insurance to cover the stake on a main bet.”
Our expert on…why a betting notebook is vital (and how he tracks horses to follow):
“Firstly, I make sure I buy a hard-backed notebook at the start of every season. It gets a good battering over the course of the year and I’ll get through a couple per season. I write down the list of runners and the race conditions for the race I am betting in. This is what takes a lot of the time – more so than watching replays (because I’ve watched most of the races live previously).
I note down race variables such as distance, class and going, and then other non-obvious things such as trainer form. Being able to check back when certain runners have run well when the yard is out of form, is useful at a later point and something the majority of punters won’t bother to check (for example I think Limato can be forgiven his latest defeat as the Henry Candy yard was badly out of form at the time. He runs at Royal Ascot next week).
I also note whether the ground looked to be riding as it was officially described. Course clerks have a habit of giving inaccurate descriptions to ensure as many runners as possible turn up to race, but if there is mud flying about then it is worth recording that the ground was soft, as the going may officially go on record as something less extreme – and the majority of punters will refer to that official description in future.
After each race I go back to the notes and make a brief line on the race and circle any runners I want to remember for future reference.
However, as I cannot bring my notebook everywhere with me, I need an online method of keeping tabs on runners so, so I also use the horse tracker facility on Irish Racing’s website. There are countless others out there, though I like that one as it allows brief notes to be saved online. You get an e-mail whenever your horses have declared to run.
Most of the time, though, I have seen the declarations for races at work, and providing the horse is running in the UK, I will be aware of it even before any tracker e-mails arrive. Given declarations are made 48 hours before a flat race, and my Press Association work begins as soon as the declarations come in, I’ve generally had two days to see the declarations for any notebooked runners.
The potential problem is when trainers go abroad – I almost missed Muthmir (my sprinter to follow this season) at Chantilly the other day, for example, and it was only when I saw a rival of his being well backed on Oddschecker that I realised there was 1) A Group race taking place in France that Sunday and 2) Muthmir was running in it.”
Our expert on…why being realistic with what you can win is key:
“These days I don’t request big liabilities. I have got used to knowing my restrictions with each firm and just play within the set limits. I spread the stakes about plenty but don’t try and take the mickey.
Gambling isn’t my primary income – my full-time job is – so I don’t need to stake to the levels a professional gambler would need to in order to turn over an amount sufficient to live off.
Last year the service generated about 75 pts profit from 750 pts staked, so if I stake, say, close to £100 per point, a good year like 2014 still creates a nice little side pot (tax free) to top up my main earnings.
Several years ago I held aspirations of becoming a professional punter at some point, but then I started a family and my whole outlook on gambling has changed with new responsibilities, even before the account closures and restrictions started and placed a time burden on top of things in terms of getting bets on.
I am comfortable just using betting as a means of trying to boost my savings now, working within the constraints, rather than trying to progress things back up a notch and overcome the barriers like sourcing fresh accounts and spending more time getting bigger stakes on.”
Read More In SBC 93
I’m sure you agree there are some incredibly valuable pieces of information in these few sample paragraphs, but elsewhere in the interview there is a whole host of great insights into the punting world, including:
- The essential tools of the trade our expert uses to source the best value bets.
- How to cope with the pressure of losing runs and how he always turns things around.
- What are the most common mistakes aspiring punters should be aware of.
- How to stay under the radar and keep those valuable bookie accounts open.
- How to think like a bookmaker, and play them at their own game.
Wage war on the bookmakers – The Bookie Apocalypse!
In addition to this interview, the latest SBC Magazine also contains independent reviews of two more horse racing services to go to war with.
Our first tipster review examines the service with 484% bank growth in 15 months whilst the second review looks at the proven flat expert with 23.3% ROI from over 1000 bets. The latter also comes with a special offer for SBC members of 6 months free if you sign-up with him for 12!
Sign up for your SBC membership now and gain instant access to SBC 93 plus a whole lot more!