Before we get to today’s matches, here’s the scores on the doors so far:
Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:
Final Group Games:
1. Portugal vs Brazil: Brazil @ 2.30 Various -1.00
2. North Korea vs Ivory Coast: Ivory Coast -1 @ 1.73 +0.73
3. Switzerland vs Honduras: Honduras/ Draw Double Chance @ 2.60 Unibet. +1.60
4. Chile vs Spain: Chile +1 @ 2.14 SBObet. Refund.
4th round:
1. Uruguay vs South Korea. Uruguay @ 1.44. +0.44
2. US vs Ghana: US @ 1.84 -1
3. England vs Germany: England @ 1.92 -1
4. Argentina vs Mexico: Mexico +1 @ 1.93 -1
Running total: 9.2 points from 20 points staked.
Not a great weekend for the ratings, but still up in the week of tracking. England’s rating was a fair bit out, though the bookies were also not prepared for it either, with the best odds of German going through being just 2.00, implying a 50% chance at best. US/ Ghana went down to the wire and Argentina/ Mexico was worth a value shout, though in retrospect the odds for the +1 handicap were rather tight given the Argie’s free scoring tendancies of late.
That’s the update, now lets continue the tracking experiment.
The Castrol ratings for Monday’s matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet. The ratings are for the match result including over time and penalties not 90 mins.
Green means value. Red means no value. Chances & odds based on ‘to qualify’ i.e. including O/T & penalties
1. Holland vs Slovakia
Holland: 86% Chance -> Value odds: 1.16 -> Best odds 1.20 Centrebet.
Slovakia: 14% Chance -> Value odds: 7.14-> Best odds 5.50 bet Chronicle
There’s value in betting on Holland to Qualify according to Castrol, but there’s not much juice in those odds. The 90 minute win pays 1.48 with Pinnacle, while the 90 minute -1 handicap is 1.87 with SBO bet. Technically Holland to qualify at 1.20 should be the value bet, but the -1 handicap seems more attractive given the domination expected.Fine margins though and it looks as though the bookies are largely in line with Castrol here. In reality this would probably be a no bet situation.
1. Brazil vs Chile
Brazil: 78% Chance -> Value odds: 1.28 -> Best odds 1.22 Centrebet.
Chile: 22% Chance -> Value odds: 4.54 -> Best odds 5.00 Boyle Sports.
Again, fine margins with bookies largely in line with Castrol here. Going by Castrol’s rating’s there may even be value in laying Brazil to qualify on betfair at 1.26 lay price. Small value though.
The Chile +1 handicap over 90 minutes @ 1.99 with 188 seems the closest to a value bet, but I’d want a bigger line than that against Brazil if I was betting with my own money. I’ve tracked the castrol ratings by betting on the side of the value though so to be consistent, I won’t skip this one, though don’t expect much. Chile +1 @ 1.99 188bet.