Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:
Castrol ratings are on on a hot streak. Luck is going our way with the results, but they’re certainly identifying where the values lies.
1. Paraguay vs New Zealand: NZ +1 handicap @ 2.15. +1.15
2. Slovakia vs Italy: Slovakia/ Draw double chance @ 2.60 . +1.60
3. Denmark vs Japan: Japan @ 3.75 +2.75
4. Cameroon vs Holland: Holland @ 1.83 +0.83
Day total: 6.33 points
Running total for the Castrol ratings: 10.43 points. 12 points staked.
The Castrol ratings for Tuesday’s matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet.
Green means value. Red means no value.
1. Portugal vs Brazil
Portugal: 21% Chance -> Value odds: 4.76 -> Best odds 3.85 Expekt
Draw: 27% Chance -> Value odds: 3.7 -> Best odds 3.14 Pinnacle
Brazil: 52% Chance -> Value odds: 1.92-> Best odds 2.30 Various
Value in Brazil according to Castrol at 2.30.
2. N Korea vs Ivory Coast
N Korea: 9% Chance -> Value odds: 11.11 -> Best odds 9.5
Draw: 17% Chance -> Value odds: 5.89 -> Best odds 5.0 Unibet
Ivory Coast: 74% Chance -> Value odds: 1.35 -> 1.43 Pinnacle
Value in with Ivory Coast according to Pinnacle. The -1 handicap might be the better option at 1.73 with SBO bet.
3. Switzerland vs Honduras
Switzerland: 38% Chance -> Value odds: 2.63 -> Best odds 1.53 various.
Draw: 29% Chance -> Value odds: 3.44 -> Best odds 4.38 Pinnacle.
Honduras: 33% Chance -> Value odds: 3.03 -> 7.71 Pinnacle.
Huge value in Honduras according to Castrol ratings. The Honduras/ Draw Double chance is 2.60 with Unibet, while the +1 handicap is 2.08 with 188 bet. The +1 is probably the safer option, but the 33% chance predicted by Castrol merits the Double Chance at 2.60.
4. Chile vs Spain
Chile: 16% Chance -> Value odds: 6.25 -> Best odds 8.35 Pinnacle
Draw: 25% Chance -> Value odds: 4.00 -> Best odds 4.52 Pinnacle.
Spain: 59% Chance -> Value odds: 1.69 -> Best odds 1.50 Various.
The match should go to Spain, but the value lies with Chile according to Castrol. Chile Draw No Bet is 6.0 with various, Chile/ Draw Double chance pays 2.80 with Unibet. Chile with the +1 Asian Handicap seems the best option at 2.14 with SBObet.