It might be an International Football break but there will be no shortage of interest in the Premier League over the next fortnight, thanks to the new managerial vacancies at both Sunderland and Liverpool.
…And for the shrewd gambler, this means only one thing. Potential winnings to be made in the extremely volatile Next Football Manager markets at both clubs.
Likewise for those that are unprepared, these markets can be the ruin of you, so knowing the “who”, “what” and “where” about betting on next managers is key.
So to help you with this, I have put together an updated 6 point guide to help steer you in the right direction for betting on next manager markets.
1) Ignore Bookmaker Hype & Twitter Gambles
New manager markets are renowned for seeing false gambles whereby a sudden move for an outsider can see a rush of money in no time at all. Sometimes these are based on nothing more than a bookmaker slashing the odds on a manager (for no real reason) to kick-start a false gamble.
Twitter also has its part to play, with unsubstantiated rumours spreading like wildfire. As the next point proves, often many of these gambles are without foundation and catch many unwitting punters out…
2) Lay ‘hot-shot’ favourites at short-prices
When David Moyes confirmed he was leaving Everton, in the first 2 weeks after he announced his departure, over £630,000 was traded in the next manager market for the role at Goodison on Betfair. It was safe to say that nobody had a clue about the next appointment and numerous candidates during this period all traded at very short prices.
In fact, the following 8 managers all traded at 4.00 and under in this first fortnight at one point or another…
- Roberto Martinez. Traded as low as 1.93
- Neil Lennon. Traded as low as 2.00
- Gus Poyet. Traded as low as 2.02
- Vitor Pereira. Traded as low as 3.10
- Eddie Howe. Traded as low as 3.10
- Malky Mackay. Traded as low as 3.80
- Alan Stubbs. Traded as low as 3.95
- Phil Neville. Traded as low as 4.00
A simple policy of laying everyone under this marker 4.0 (3/1) would of reaped major dividends in this market. All of the candidates above also traded at much bigger prices so there is plenty of opportunity to trade them out at a later date to lock in profit too.
The eventual winner, Roberto Martinez traded at the lowest price during this period but even with the loss on him, you still would have collected on 7 of the others under 3/1.
3) Always, always check Betfair!
Betfair without question always has much better odds than many of the more traditional bookmakers and you should always check their odds first before placing a bet.
The differences can be vast too as the current next Sunderland manager market is proving. At the time of writing, some bookies such as Bet Victor are offering puny odds of 11/10 (2.1) on the favourite Sam Allardyce, who is available as big as 2.90 on Betfair. In fact the best bookie price across the board on Big Sam is 6/4, so there is greater value by using the exchange here compared to the best bookmaker.
This is often replicated across numerous candidates in almost all next manager markets. Always, always check Betfair first!
4) Play the long game
The very best manager markets are those where a decision on who the next boss is might take some time to become apparent (up to a couple of months). This allows the opportunity for plenty of different favourites to appear, with rumours and counter-rumours ensuring an ever-changing market, which is ideal for trading.
Of course it’s impossible to know for certain, exactly when a manager market will be a drawn out affair, but it helps to read between the lines. The board at Man Utd knew exactly when they would be replacing their manager but some hot-head chairman who fire their manager on a whim, often don’t have a clue where to start. These are the markets that can be lucrative.
5) Don’t Trust What Managers Say
It can also pay to not believe everything that managers say when it comes to these markets. After all it was only 3 days before he announced his retirement that Fergie wrote in his programme notes how much he was looking forward to the future managing Man Utd!
A classic example of this came back in 2005 when Harry Redknapp controversially switched from Southampton to arch-rivals Portsmouth and stung countless punters on Betfair. So much so that Betfair even discussed their concern over the amount of money backing him, a point backed up by the Saints chairman who stated his belief it was outside the rules of the game and required investigation.
Many managers also use the fact they are linked with these markets as negotiating tactics to get better contracts or to apply pressure on their current board to get what they want. How often do you see an up and coming manager refuse to rule out leaving to a club with a vacancy, only to then sign a ‘new improved’ contract to stay put a few days later? Too often!
6) Be Careful On Markets Where The Manager Hasn’t Gone Yet!
Finally, I would always advise being very cautious if betting in markets where the current manager is still in situ. After all it when the Next Man Utd manager was settled, some people had been waiting over a decade for their bet to come in!
This can also apply to those managers who are in danger of getting the sack. It doesn’t always transpire that they will be fired and if they do stay in a job, you could be left with a bet going nowhere and on a candidate who in a few weeks time may no longer be suitable.
The likes of Martin O’Neill (2.0), Pepe Guardiola (2.6), Carlos Queiroz (3.1), Sven Goran-Eriksson (4.0), Roy Keane (4.0) all traded at extremely short prices for the Man Utd job during the 11 years the market was active. You wouldn’t have fancied your chances with any of these when Fergie said he was leaving!
Mind you, with the average tenure of a Premier League manager now less than a year, this may become less of a problem!
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