Case Study: How To Analyse A Tipster…


How To Analyse A Tipster…

If the release of our free ‘Financial Year Betting Report’ made one thing clear last week – it is that if following the right tipsters, you can make money betting.

In that report (free to download here) we showcased how SBC writer, Rowan had made 64.4% bank growth between April 15 and 16. Far greater returns than with many other ‘traditional’ forms of investment and savings.

Yet to make money from betting you need good tipsters – so how do you actually find them?

To help answer that key question, today I want to walk you through a few of the ‘tricks of the trade’ in terms of how we here at SBC scrutinise any given tipster and their performance standards.

Most of it is sensible and straightforward advice that can help you get under-the-bonnet of a tipster and quickly separate the wheat from the chaff.

My Example Tipster

To help explain our approach, i’m going to use a real-life example of a tipster we recently pulled apart and reviewed in-depth in our March 2016 SBC Magazine. It’s a horse-racing tipster with on the face of it a 561.4 point profit from 1766 bets (15.9% ROI) since 2014 and all at Betfair SP.

Now, Betfair SP tipsters are highly sought after so do attract a lot of interest from SBC members (hence our review) but not everything is as straightforward as it seems.

Betfair SP – 27% Profit Difference

The first issue with this tipster was that at the time their results did not deduct any commission on winnings. Betfair do charge as much as 5% commission on any winning bets you place so it’s a cost you can’t escape from.

Some people mistakenly dismiss this as 5% doesn’t seem too much. Yet it is as these stats prove.

The first thing we did with this tipster was to deduct 5% commission off each single winning bet to get to a more realistic total.

Here is how it changed things:

  • Total profit pre-commission: 561.4 points (15.9% ROI)
  • Total profit post-commission: 410.3 points (11.6% ROI)

As you can see, this very simple act knocked off 4.3% ROI and 151.1 points at a stroke – effectively 27% of the claimed profits.

Thus the 5% commission actually accounted for a substantial chunk of profits here, although we do still have plenty to work with – an 11.6% ROI post commission.

The Biggest Bang For Your Betting Buck

Performance Chart

The next thing we like to observe is their performance chart as this can help uncover any underlying issues with the service such as:

  • Has the service benefitted from just a handful of big priced winners? If so it might have got lucky.
  • Has the service made consistent profits throughout the lifetime of their service? If not, has their edge eroded recently?
  • Has the service suffered from bad losing runs? If so, it might be an ‘unstable’ service that you might not wish to follow!

Here is the performance profit chart for this service, which aside from 2 largeish losing runs (more about soon) has grown fairly steadily over the course of 3500 bets.

An ideal chart will go upwards from left to right at a 45-degree angle, and this is not too different as the red line proves.

Profit Chart - SBC Example

Watch Those Losing Runs!

Of course we can’t ignore the fact that the service has endured a number of bad losing runs and evaluating the depth of these is vitally important.

  • Firstly – a losing run will help us to identify what possible size betting bank we might need to cover any such bad periods. After all – sensible betting bank management is an essential consideration for all punters.
  • Secondly – a losing run helps to showcase that the service results are realistic and that the tipster can cope with bad periods of form. Too many naïve tipsters fold under the pressure of a bad run and chase winners, but that doesn’t seem the case here.

So to help evaluate a losing run, we put together what we call ‘Drawdown analysis’. This helps to pick out the worse runs from peak to trough. I.e. if you joined at the worst possible moment and the first bet of a losing run.

Here is the drawdown chart for this service:

Drawdown - SBC Example

The worst run staked peaks at 136.5 points, which took place between June and October 2014 – a period of 195 bets.

What this tells us is:

  • We need a betting bank size well in excess of 136.5 points to cope with possible losing runs. Anything less than this and we risk blowing our bank if unlucky! Our recommended betting bank is 250 points for this service
  • On occasions you will need to be patient if following this service – the 4-month drawdown period between June and October 2014 illustrates as much.
  • The tipster has stayed true and consistent to their approach even during pressurised losing runs. They know their edge and stick to it through thick and thin.

3 New Profitable Tipsters Reviewed - SBC

Odds Band, Race Course & Handicap Analysis

So far, we have discovered that this tipster makes an 11.6% ROI at Betfair SP and would require a betting bank of around 250 points to cover possible losses during bad runs.

What else can we find?

Well we often run all kinds of analysis and chop up the service in different ways to see what other strengths and weaknesses we can find. Here are a few of interest…

Performance By Odds

A really simple analysis tool is to look at which odds range a tipster makes its profit from. For this tipster, the vast bulk of their success comes from bets priced at over 8.50, which account for 68% of the total profits.

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Performance By Race Course

This particular tipster is an all-weather racing specialist so we also drilled into their performance over the 3 tracks they tip at – Kempton, Lingfield & Southwell.

What was fascinating was the very poor comparative performance at Kempton with just a measly 0.1% ROI from 645 bets at the course.

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Handicap Vs Non-Handicap

Finally – we also found varying performance when separating the tips into either handicap or non-handicap races with a definite edge to the former. There was a 210 point and 10% ROI swing in the favour of handicap race tips.

Results by Handicap example chart

We run all these extra kinds of analysis to identify additional areas of strength and weakness, although it is important to highlight that you do have to be careful if jumping to definitive conclusions in some areas.

For example, if choosing to bet on tips priced 8.5 and over, you would need a much larger betting bank as you would be opening yourself up to a much more volatile tipster. The strike-rate on these larger priced tips only stands at 8.7% compared to 22.3% if following all of the tips in.

Final Scores On The Doors

Although this is just a fairly brief synopsis of our own review process (which goes into a lot more detail than I can outline here) it should give you a flavour of a few ways to evaluate tipsters.

Something as simple as deducting 5% Betfair SP commission or looking at the performance graph can provide plenty of answers.

The good news about this tipster is that they ultimately had a good long-term record of 410.3 points profit at a ROI of 11.6%. To the advocated betting bank of 250 points this equates to a ROC or Betting Bank Growth of 205.2% since 2014.

Here are their yearly figures:

Yearly Figures example chart

After liaising with this tipster for this review, they subsequently posted up their results with 5% commission deducted as standard. They are also offering all SBC members a 50% discount on the cost of joining their service.

The Best Tipster Guide - SBC

Let Us Help You!

This particular tipster stood up to our analysis but not all do and it’s vitally important to scrutinise any tipster before you consider following them in with your own money.

Whether it be accuracy of results, how realistic their odds are or simply how they handle losing runs – it’s better to know before you join than after!

You can read more on the tipster featured in this article in March’s SBC Magazine (Issue 96)

Equally if you are after independent, professional expertise to help you make money betting with tipsters – whether for the first time or to build on existing profits, we are here to help.

We have hundreds of tipster reviews for you to read within our back catalogue, whilst our Hall of Fame of recommended tipsters can point you in the direction of the very best experts to make you money.

Join The Secret Betting Club today

Free Report: How Rowan Made A 64.4% ROC Last Year With Tipsters

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To help illustrate the profits you can make following tipsters, you must read this very special report from SBC writer, Rowan Day on the performance of the ‘tipping portfolio’ he followed during the 2015/16 tax year.

Download The End-Of-Year Report PDF Here

It covers the profits he made in the ‘tax-year’ April 2015 to April 2016 by following a small amount of tipsters – and the sums he made are very impressive indeed!

All told over the past financial year, Rowan made a Return On Investment (ROI) of 7.2% and a Return on Capital (ROC) of 64.4% from his selection of tipsters.

Applying this to actual monetary sums, a 64.4% ROC would have brought about the following profits:

  • £2,000 into £3,288.00
  • £5,000 into £8,220.00
  • £10,000 into £16,440.00
  • £20,000 into £32,880.00

The Biggest Bang For Your Betting Buck

Real Life Betting For Profit Inspiration…

The tipsters featured in this End of Year Report are the exact same ones that Rowan has been blogging about each week via his special ‘Bet Diary’ for the past 18 months.

Through the Bet Diary he shares the ups and downs of following a tipster portfolio plus his thoughts on each tipster and how/why he follows them.

It’s the perfect companion to our SBC Magazines & Reports and provides practical assistance plus real-life inspiration to those of you keen to do the same!

The Bet Diary and also his regular ‘Practical Punter’ Reports are available as part of the Secret Betting Club service and the Practical Betting Help we offer all members.

Risk-Free Membership

If you are keen to emulate Rowan (or even to simply copy his approach!) then do consider a Secret Betting Club membership.

We provide you with all the tools, information (both theoretical and practical) to help you make the most of betting for profit using professional tipsters.

Best of all – you can sign-up now for either a Gold or Platinum subscription and enjoy a 30-day risk free membership. So if you find our service not to your liking (we don’t imagine you will!) then you can get your money back, no questions asked.

Sign-up now and get started with instant access to our service.

Video: How this SBC Report can help you find the best tipsters

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The very latest Secret Betting Club Tipster Profit Report has just been published, featuring the updated results, ratings and rankings for 59 of the best tipsters that my team and I have uncovered in 10 years of independent analysis.

And to help showcase how this latest report can help YOU with YOUR betting, I have put together a special video to outline exactly what’s inside it and what all the fuss is about.

Click the video link below to see me explain all!

How Our Tipster Profit Reports Can Help You!

Let The SBC Team Help You…

Hopefully this video will help to answer some of the common questions I am often asked in terms of how we track tipsters and just exactly how these reports can help you.

Whether it be via access to our Hall of Fame (those tipsters we firmly recommend) or examining our in-depth reviews for each of the 59 tipsters included in this report, if you are interested in betting for profit with tipsters then this report is an essential starting point.

Tracking and monitoring tipsters is what my team and I do all day, every day so why not let us help you with your betting by instructing you on which ones you should follow.

Full details on some of the top tipsters discussed in this latest Tipster Profit Report can be found on the SBC Blog.

If you are keen to get started then sign-up for your instant Secret Betting Club membership today and let my team and I help you make money betting!

 

Make Money Betting Today with Secret Betting Club

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April’s Profit Report: The BIGGEST Bang For Your Betting Buck

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Secret Betting Club members are now absorbing the feast of statistics contained in our latest Tipster Profit Report – featuring all you need on finding tipsters to make you money betting.

In this latest report we reveal the very latest profit figures from the 59 tipsters that we proof. Our easy to follow tables and editorial recommendations make it simple for you to find out not only who the best tipsters are, but who the right tipster is for you!

Sign-up here to gain instant access to this latest report (and our entire back catalogue of tipster reviews, systems & betting guides) or read on for more details…

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INSIDE APRIL’S TIPSTER PROFIT REPORT….

How To Make The Biggest Bang For Your Betting Buck

59 Top Tipsters Revealed Including….

• The Newcomer Racking up a phenomenal £10,483 Profit in the last 12 months;

• The Rugby/Racing Guru who doubled his bank in March 2016 alone!;

• The Free Tipster with a 26.8% ROIsince 2015 & Upgraded into our Hall of Fame;

• The Racing GENIUS up 125% Betting Bank Growth since January 2016.


Find The Best Tipsters For You!

Each Tipster Profit Report is designed to help you find the very best betting tipsters – those that have proven themselves to be successful over a long-term period of time.

To help with this we breakdown the 59 tipsters into a whole series of categories so you can easily compare and contrast them.

So for example you can find comparison tables detailing:

  • The most profitable tipsters
  • The best tipsters from the last 12 months
  • The best low cost tipsters
  • The best free tipsters
  • The best betting bank growth tipsters
  • The best ‘odds availability’ tipsters (those that quote realistic prices)
  • And much more besides…

 

Make Money Betting Today with Secret Betting Club

Key Facts Pages, Tipster Discounts & 10 Year Back Catalogue

As a Secret Betting Club Member, you will not only be able to access this latest Tipster Profit Report but also all of the following:

Detailed Ratings On Every Tipster: Each of the 59 tipsters we track has its own designatedKey Facts Page with 10 different ratings on everything from cost to customer service and profitability.

Massive Tipster Discounts: You can save £££’s on the cost of joining many popular tipsters through the special deals we negotiate on our member’s behalf. These are exclusive to the Secret Betting Club.

Back Catalogue Access: As 2016 is our tenth year of service, you can access our entire back catalogue of past reports and tipster reviews. If we haven’t reviewed a tipster, it probably isn’t worth knowing about!

And all from the only 100% independent tipster source!  Yes, that’s right as whilst all other review sites use affiliate links or make money referring sales to the tipsters, all SBC tipster reviews and ratings are 100% independent and affiliate-free!

So when we say a tipster is good it is because it genuinely is and not because we will make money by saying so.

Grab Your Copy Of This Report Immediately

You can pick up your copy of this report, the instant you join our service at the Secret Betting Club with full access to our exclusive members-only area.

Not only this but as an SBC member you can also gain full access to our monthly Betting Magazines, Practical Punter Reports & enjoy the peace of mind of our Money Back Guarantee if not satisfied once joining!

Case Study: Why This Tipster Is So Highly Rated


Revealed: The Anatomy of a ‘Hall Of Fame’ tipster

Our aim at the Secret Betting Club is simple – to help you make money from your betting, whether it be for the first time ever or by increasing the profits you are already making.  One way (amongst many more) in which we can do this is by pointing you towards the best tipsters in the market, the ones who are proven to make long term profits.

What makes the best, the best?

If you were to sit down and think about what exactly you would want from a tipping service you would pay for, I would imagine your wish list would look something like this:

  • Excellent results – after all, you want to make money!
  • Proven over the long term – you don’t want to be investing in anything that might just be a flash in the pan with some lucky recent results that make them look good.
  • Affordable – big fees can eat into your profits in a big way!
  • Good explanations behind each bet – it’s always nice to know exactly why you’re putting your money down.
  • Odds availability – something that is massively important and often overlooked, you need to know that you can match the results the service is claiming.

We don’t feel that asking for the above is asking for too much!  But sadly, there are so many so called expert tipsters that fail to put a tick in these boxes.

The good news is, there are many that do…

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A case study: Northern Monkey Punter

Northern Monkey Punter is a long time favourite of our members.  One of the elite Secret Betting Club Hall of Fame services, it was voted as Best Horse Racing Tipping Service and Best Overall Tipping Service (all sports) for 2016 in our annual member’s poll.  That’s quite a thing, but then when you consider it won both prizes in the 2015 vote too. Best of all, Northern Monkey offer ALL SBC members an anytime 2-week free trial of their service.

Why don’t we break NMP down?  That way, we’ll be able to see the anatomy of an SBC Hall of Fame tipster.

Long term success, a proven edge, low fees…

Although primarily a flat racing specialist, this year’s Cheltenham Festival witnessed Northern Monkey build quite the antepost portfolio.  It was clear that he had spent a huge number of hours analysing form, and the results for his subscribers were spectacular:

But remember what we were saying about not wanting to pay up to what might be a short term flash in the pan?  Well, Northern Monkey has been proofing his bets to us here at the SBC since 2010.  We have six years of proven results which have provided an excellent long term Return On Investment of 12%.

You might worry that such a successful tipster might be charging huge subscription fees, but that couldn’t be further from the truth.  Northern Monkey continually rides high in our “Best Low Cost Horse Racing Service” table that can be found in the SBC’s Tipster Profit Report, issued regularly to all members.

With all this plus every single bet Northern Monkey advises accompanied by a detailed rationale that explains why the horse is being tipped, you can see that all the boxes in our essential checklist of what makes a great service have been ticked.  That is, all apart from one – that of odds availability.

RECENT SECRET BETTING CLUB RELEASES

SBC Awards 2016SBC 95 - EXPERT ADVICE TO HELP YOU BET & WINSBC #93 - June 2015sbc_March2016_V2

Better Results Than The Tipster Himself?!?

We find, from our analysis, that there are certain tipping services that are only too happy to shout to the rooftops about their massive profits.  And it is often true that they did advise their members to back the winners they claim.

What they don’t tell you though is that the odds they’ve used to record their results are likely to have been completely unobtainable by the vast majority of their members.  If a tipster uses a standout price, being offered by just the one bookmaker, or perhaps two, it doesn’t take much before those odds are slashed as a flood of wagers suddenly hits that book.  A horse tipped at 6/1 can very easily be 7/2 just a minute or two after the tipster sent his email out, and this makes it impossible for you to get anywhere approaching the results boasted about in those flashy ads!

At the Secret Betting Club we take this issue very seriously.  When we review a tipster, we conduct a thorough analysis of odds movements at various time intervals after the bets have been released.  This means we can provide you with a true picture of exactly what level of profit you can reasonably expect to make, and not some pie in the sky figure you’re never going to get anywhere near.

In our latest Tipster Profit Report we showed members that Northern Monkey Punter’s odds recording policy is so fair that anyone who can place his bets within 15 minutes of receiving the email each day can reasonably expect to boost their ROI by a massive 4%!

To give that context, that’s an extra £578 per year profit to Northern Monkey’s own official results if working with a £2,000 bank.

Now, we can see that every box has been ticked.

If you are interested in the Northern Monkey Punter service, then all SBC members are welcome to take up an exclusive anytime 2-week trial of their service to sample what they offer. This is part of the unique Tipster Discounts & Deals we negotiate on behalf of our members (read more on them here)

FIND OUT WHO THE BEST TIPSTERS ARE

Northern Monkey is a proud and long-standing member of our revered Hall of Fame tipping services, but is only one of a number of tipsters who meet our strict criteria.  As you have read, we put tipsters through many stringent tests before we include them on our list of the best tipsters in the industry.

You can find out who these tipsters are, and read all our analysis on each and every one of them, simply by signing up to the SBC today.  Best of all, you can sign up totally risk free due to our 30-day money back guarantee, so if you find that our service is not for you, then you can get a full refund.  This means you have everything to gain and nothing to lose in joining our exclusive club!

So if you are looking to find out who the very best tipsters are to follow and start making serious betting profits, then sign up for a Secret Betting Club membership today.

 

My Simple 77/1 Winning Bet Strategy

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One of the common questions I invariably get asked when discussing my job is ‘What’s your biggest winning bet’?

Usually, I struggle to recall a huge winning bet as most of my winners come at ‘normal’ prices but this week I picked up a 77/1 winning bet (more about this later on) which has inspired my column today.

This big winner was based on a simple ‘multiple’ betting strategy I have adopted for some-time and one which I feel many other punters might also benefit from. Allow me to explain…

Comparing Single & Double Bet Value

Firstly, I want to set the scene with some mythical fixtures and prices to compare the profits from both single and double bets.

For ease of explanation, let’s imagine that this weekend my beloved Everton are priced at evens (2.0) to beat Man Utd and Leicester are also evens (2.0) to beat Southampton. Effectively they are 50/50 shots.

Therefore, if you are able to get anything above 2.0 (evens) on those matches, then you’ve got a value bet and should make a profit in theory.

A quick check at the fictional odds available at the bookies shows that both Everton and Leicester are available at around 2.20 (6/5).

My options if I wanted to back both are as follows:

  • 2 Single Bets: Back Everton & Leicester at 2.20 as 2 single bets. Potential profit if both win: 2.40 points.
  • 1 Double Bet: Back Everton & Leicester at 2.20 as 1 double bet. Potential profit if both win: 3.84 points

As you can see the double bets will ultimately provide the greatest profit and long-term a 21% Return on Investment. This compares well with the 10% Return on Investment to be had simply backing single bets.

The main difference here comes in the strike-rate as the double bet will only win 1 in 4 times, compared to the 1 in 2 strike-rate the single bets have.

Ultimately it’s this strike-rate for success (50% for single bets vs. 25% double bets) that can make all the difference and really test your patience when doubling up.

The question to ask is if you’re willing to accept the risk of taking a longer losing run in exchange for higher profits?

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Treble & Trixies

Whilst I draw the line at placing big accumulators I am also a fan of placing Treble bets or Trixie bets when you have 3 value selections.

It might be unlikely for a 10-fold accumulator to come in, yet it is more than reasonable to expect 3 bets to win or place (if placing an each way treble) every now and then.

For those of you looking to be even more creative, if you have 3 value tips, you might like to try a Trixie bet, which is actually 4 bets in 1: 3 doubles and 1 treble.

You needn’t risk huge stakes on such bets, but they are a nice way to compliment single bets you place and can often pay out big on the occasions they come in.

Which leads me back to my bet earlier this week, where one of my regular trixies came in at decent odds. I placed a £1.25 each way Trixie on 3 horses at 7/1, 9/2 & 4/1, which all duly came in. Thus my £10 staked became £778.20. Click here to see my betslip

Admittedly I got a little lucky as my 7/1 winner was uplifted to 14/1 – but even if paid out at the lower odds, it more than made up for any losses incurred by past losing trixies. As I usually bet them each way, very often I get a few place and wins to make a few quid back and tick me over until these big wins come in!

Bad Single Bets = Bad Multiple Bets

Before you rush off to place a whole series of multiple bets – it’s important to make clear that Doubles, Trebles & Trixies betting is only as good as the bets you are placing or the tipsters you are following who advise the tips.

If your bets don’t make a profit as a single, they won’t magically make a profit when bet as a multiple.

Many mug punters roll up short priced football bets in an attempt to push up their returns with no concept of value. This is why bookmakers sometimes love you betting on doubles and trebles – If not used correctly, they can multiply your losses as well as profits.

My own Trixie selections on the above winning bet were based on tips put forward by some of the high quality tipsters we work with here at the Secret Betting Club (step forward Jason JamesOddsbeater).

With access to a number of these tipsters, alongside placing all the single bets they put forward, it’s also sometimes worth the occasional multiple bet when the odds remain in your favour.

For those of you with the patience and foresight to ride the losses in anticipation of the winners when they come, it can add another string to your betting bow.

I do hope you have enjoyed my article today – hopefully its provided some food for thought and options for your betting moving forward.

For even more betting advice and expertise, do consider a Secret Betting Club membership. Last year, over 85% of our members reported they made a profit from their betting – so why not sign-up today and see how we can help you!