Month: October 2011

How to spot when teams are over-performing

Posted on by Dan

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab software analyse over performing teams in major European leagues.

A look at the Big Five European leagues shows that teams that are over-performing in comparison to the previous season tend to fall back during the season and by spotting these sides we have the basis for a successful strategy.

Using a sample that includes almost all Premier League matches since the start of the 1998/99 season we have a total of 920 games where a team has been 4-7 positions higher in the table than they finished the previous season. Had you backed their opponents every time you would have achieved a 5% profit on turnover.  Backing the over-performing side would have yielded a 23% loss and the draw would have been a 15% loss. This is based on average odds, taking the top odds could yield better results.

Narrowing this sample to matches where the teams in question were playing away and were not playing an opponent who also fit the profile we are left with 456 matches and a profit of 13% from backing their opponents (37% loss backing the highlighted teams and 11% loss on the draw). Continue reading →

SBC Winter Annual: The Lazy Way To Profit From Horse Racing

Posted on by Mike

If you are looking for expert help and assistance during the coming National Hunt and All Weather Horse Racing seasons, then our inaugural Smart Betting Club Winter Annual is most definitely here to help.

It’s key contents include…

  • A unique Horses to Follow list of 50+ thoroughbreds for the next 6 months
  • Proven strategies and systems to use and profit from this Winter
  • Exclusive discounts and savings on all the very best tipsters

All combined, it is quite simply – your ultimate winter racing companion and the great news is you can purchase for as little as £20.

To pick up your copy today click here now or read on for more details… Continue reading →

Champions League Value Bets: Value In the Gunners At Marseille

Posted on by Dan

Value bets for the group stages:

Using the Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings we can also hunt out some value bets the upcoming group stage matches. We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using a value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings imply a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

Here’s what the ratings threw up in the last round of Champions League games. 

Results so far: 
Results have not been good so far with the last round of matches being a virtual wipe out. Most of the bets have been 4.57 so the ratings are clearly finding more value in the underdog so far. The trouble is that the underdog is yet to properly bite. Continue reading →

Sportsman Racing: Frankel To Remain Unbeaten at 2/1

Posted on by Mike

In this regular Monday segment, racing expert Scott Armstrong rounds up all the action of note from this weekend’s racing for SBC Blog readers.

Saturday’s racing was dominated by the outstanding Frankel and Scott runs the rule over his magnificent win alongside that of another of his highlighted horses – Deacon Blues, who took the Champions Sprint Stakes. You can also pick up Scott’s latest Horses To Follow list and find out how to receive this via email every Monday in the future.

The world’s best racehorse lit up Champions Day as Frankel dismissed four Group 1 winners with ease in winning the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes by four lengths. In these current dark times for horse racing it’s great news for all fans of the sport that Frankel will be back next year as a four-year old. Frankel is 2-1 with William Hill to remain unbeaten next season.

Christophe Soumillon was the latest victim of the whip rules suffering a £52,000 fine for striking the winner of the Champion Stakes, Cirrus Des Aigle six times in the final furlong. This incident overshadowed a first Group 1 success for the five-year old Cirrus Des Aigles who wore down So You Think in the final furlong. Cirrus Des Aigle may now be aimed at the Hong Kong Cup in December where he should be on the premises. Continue reading →

Coming Soon: SBC Winter Racing Annual Including Horses To Follow List

Posted on by Mike

Nowadays, the internet is awash with information on race horses. If you want to pick out a likely winner, there are countless news feeds, form guides, ratings services, tipsters and racing ‘experts’ that are there to assist the punter.

The trouble is that all this information can make punting even more confusing, not less.

If you were to go back as little as 10 years though, only a fraction of these resources were available. So how did the professional gambler cope without all the invaluable aids listed above ?

How on earth did he make a profit ? Continue reading →

Will boring Villa scupper Man City’s hot streak?

Posted on by Dan

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab Black software help analyse some of the current winning and losing streaks of teams in the English Premier League to identify what might happen next.

Man City are flying, having won eight home games on the bounce, but can they keep it up?

To simplify the analysis, the streaks primarily refer to each team playing at home or away respectively going back to 2006. E.g. We’re only looking at the home winning/ losing streaks not their home and way performance.

Man City (8 home wins) vs Aston Villa (3 away draws)

  • Man City have won eight home games on the bounce just once before, winning the next game against Bolton 4-2.
  • In the history of the Premier League since 2006, there have been 12 instances of teams winning 8 home games on the bounce. The hot team won their next home game 75% of the time, making a small profit of 0.4 points. The last team to do this was Manchester United who happened to beat Villa in their next game.
  • Villa have drawn three away games on the bounce just twice before, drawing once and losing the other time.
  • Since 2006 there have been 23 instances of teams drawing three consecutive away games. Backing the away team is unsurprisingly a bad option, with the draw masters winning the next game just 13% of the time and losing 48% of the time. Backing another draw isn’t a bad shout though, it happened 39% of the time returning a profit of 9.9 points.

Wigan (DWDWL from last 5 home) vs Bolton (3 points from last 5 games)

  • Bolton are rooted at the foot of the table having secured just one win this season. They been in a situation of having scored between 2-4 points from 5 away games 40 times before. The odds of a turnaround tomorrow aren’t great with Bolton losing their next away game 70% of the time.
  • Backing Bolton to lose the next away game would have actually returned a profit of +8.7 points from 40 games.
  • Historically since 2006, any Premier League team with just 2-4 points from their last 5 games has won the next match just 21% of the time and losing 53% of the time.
  • It’s not impossible that Bolton will turn it around tomorrow, but the odds are against it.

Pick up a Smart Betting Club membership to access all this and more.

 

Will boring Villa scupper Man City's hot streak?

Posted on by Dan

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab Black software help analyse some of the current winning and losing streaks of teams in the English Premier League to identify what might happen next.

Man City are flying, having won eight home games on the bounce, but can they keep it up?

To simplify the analysis, the streaks primarily refer to each team playing at home or away respectively going back to 2006. E.g. We’re only looking at the home winning/ losing streaks not their home and way performance.

Man City (8 home wins) vs Aston Villa (3 away draws)

  • Man City have won eight home games on the bounce just once before, winning the next game against Bolton 4-2.
  • In the history of the Premier League since 2006, there have been 12 instances of teams winning 8 home games on the bounce. The hot team won their next home game 75% of the time, making a small profit of 0.4 points. The last team to do this was Manchester United who happened to beat Villa in their next game.
  • Villa have drawn three away games on the bounce just twice before, drawing once and losing the other time.
  • Since 2006 there have been 23 instances of teams drawing three consecutive away games. Backing the away team is unsurprisingly a bad option, with the draw masters winning the next game just 13% of the time and losing 48% of the time. Backing another draw isn’t a bad shout though, it happened 39% of the time returning a profit of 9.9 points.

Wigan (DWDWL from last 5 home) vs Bolton (3 points from last 5 games)

  • Bolton are rooted at the foot of the table having secured just one win this season. They been in a situation of having scored between 2-4 points from 5 away games 40 times before. The odds of a turnaround tomorrow aren’t great with Bolton losing their next away game 70% of the time.
  • Backing Bolton to lose the next away game would have actually returned a profit of +8.7 points from 40 games.
  • Historically since 2006, any Premier League team with just 2-4 points from their last 5 games has won the next match just 21% of the time and losing 53% of the time.
  • It’s not impossible that Bolton will turn it around tomorrow, but the odds are against it.

Pick up a Smart Betting Club membership to access all this and more.

 

Football Bulletin: Expect A Tevez-Less City To Block Out Villa

Posted on by Mike

By utilising the excellent Form Lab Black software, the team at the Smart Betting Club have cast their eye over some of the weekend’s feature games in search for any angles of betting interest.

This weekend, we start off with Man City, where despite the loss of Carlos Tevez, the stats suggest a fruitless time for their opponents Aston Villa.

English Premier League

Man City vs. Villa: Man City Win to Nil. 2.50 Blue Square/888.

Man City’s home form has been superb. They are unbeaten in twelve of the last thirteen games, winning ‘to nil’ in each of their last five. City have also managed to keep clean sheets in all of their last seven home games against top half teams. Villa on the other hand are yet to win away this season and have lost in 10/15 trips to top three finishers since 2006/2007. Aston Villa have the lowest number of shots on goal this season away with just 22 in total and only 8 of these have been on target. Continue reading →

Sportsman Racing: Times Up For Punters

Posted on by Mike

Welcome to our latest column from Scott Armstrong of The Sportsman tipster service.

Each Friday, Scott provides us with a rundown of all the best weekend racing action – including the key  horses to follow and those to oppose. You can also find a recap from him each Monday on the SBC Blog with his reaction to the weekend’s events. Thorough, frank and not afraid to take a contrary view, Scott Armstrong is a racing man whose opinion you can’t afford to be without.

Ascot hosts the first ever Champions Day tomorrow, with an array of all the very best horses, jockeys and trainers vying for more than £3 million in prize-money. It is a day made for racing expert Scott Armstrong who has plenty of value calls, including why Times Up for punters and his each-way bet to take on the mightly Frankel in the QEII – the most anticipated race of the day!

The inaugural Champions Day at Ascot on Saturday is a mouth-watering occasion. The richest ever day of racing witnesses more than £3 million in prize-money on offer and an impressive cast of equine stars headlined by the monster that is Frankel. Typically those in charge of racing have cast a massive shadow over the day with their new whip rules and top flat rider Richard Hughes handed in his licence in protest last night. For now I concentrate on events on the track. Continue reading →

Sample two Smart Betting Club Magazines Free

Posted on by Mike

To give you an idea of what it is like to be a Smart Betting Club member, you can now download two free SBC betting magazines for free.

Each month, we publish TWO monthly betting magazines, one devoted to Sports Betting (with a main focus on football) and the other to Horse Racing.

Each magazine is jam-packed with all you need to make money betting and you can download a sample of each to check out the quality of our work.

Download a free Horse Racing magazine – Click Here

Download a free Sports Betting magazine – Click Here

These special previews contain… Continue reading →