Football Bulletin: Expect cards-a-plenty at Goodison, but goals might be missing

By utilising the excellent Form Lab Black software, the team at the Secret Betting Club have cast their eye over some of the weekend’s feature games in search for any angles of betting interest.

So far the suggested bets have made a small profit of £1.80 from £50 stakes.

This weekend, we start off with the big clash of the weekend at Goodison Park as Kenny Dalglish takes a Liverpool team back to Anfield for the first time in 20 years. Continue reading

Should You Bet On Cards For A Dirty Derby?

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab Black software help us preview the big Derby games this weekend.

Many supporters see derby matches as the biggest games of the season, which are often wrought with competitiveness and intensity. Unsurprisingly, spread betting firms and bookmakers will raise their usual buy-sell prices by anything up to 20 points, but should they?

The Premier League has the lowest number of bookings per game than any of the other top divisions in Europe. Over the past eight seasons the average game has seen 3.10 yellow cards and 0.16 red cards (or 35.1 booking points). In contrast La Liga games have averaged a whopping 61.0 booking points since the start of the 2003/04 season, with 5.2 yellow and 0.35 red cards per game. Continue reading

Sportsman Racing: Follow Fallon In The Arc

Welcome to our latest column from Scott Armstrong of The Sportsman tipster service.

Each Friday, Scott will be provide us with a rundown of all the best weekend racing action – all the key  horses to follow and those to oppose. You can also find a recap from him each Monday on the SBC Blog with his reaction to the weekend’s events. Thorough, frank and not afraid to take a contrary view Scott Armstrong is a racing man whose opinion you can’t afford to be without.

This week Scott pores over the main contenders for l’Arc de Triomphe, which is expected to be run in rare October sunshine, making the ground a major factor for weighing up the best bets. Scott has some firm views on why three year olds are the ones to watch in Paris and he has an each way bet to nothing for you to follow in. Continue reading

The SBC Interviews: Hugh Taylor

Hugh Taylor is a name that strikes fear into many a horse racing odds compiler and he is without doubt one of the most renowned names in the tipping world. His betting record via At The Races is second to none and his tips quite literally can turn betting markets upside down within minutes. When he speaks, people listen and we are delighted to be able to share an exclusive interview with Hugh himself, courtesy of the Smartersig service.

This interview was originally posted on the blog back in February 2011, but such has been the interest in it since then, we thought it well worth re-posting.

The Newmarket Wizards – Hugh Taylor

It has been a while since the last inclusion in the Newmarket Wizards collection. Results on the At The Races web site however prompted me to get in touch with ex Smartie and now resident tipster at ATR, Hugh Taylor. Hugh could be described as the Pricewise of ATR, tipping value horses via the web site at around 10.00am every day. Giving daily tips means his tipping profile quickly builds up and his prowess can be checked via a past results section on the site. Continue reading

Champions League Value Bets: Is there value in an under strength Man U?

Value bets for the group stages:

Using the Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings we can also hunt out some value bets the upcoming group stage matches. We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using a value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings imply a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

Here’s what the ratings threw up in the last round of Champions League games. 

First up, here are the English team’s chances tonight according to the Dectech ratings:
  • Bayern Munich vs Man City: Man City 21.90% Chance. Value with City.
  • Man U v Basel: Man U 89.60% chance. Small value with Man U.
  • Arsenal vs Olympiakos: Arsenal 72% chance. No value in Arsenal.
  • Valencia v Chelsea: Chelsea 38.75% chance. No value with Chelsea. Continue reading

Football Bulletin: A Second Coming For King Kenny or More of The Same on Merseyside?

Kenny Dalglish’s return to Anfield has been heralded in certain quarters as a cross between the Second Coming and The Greatest Show on Earth but can the, all to human, Scot really justify the hype?

Now thanks to our exclusive statistical breakdown of the curent Liverpool squad and their results over the last five seasons, SBC can finally cast some light on the facts and the fictions surrounding King Kenny. As SBC editor Greg Gordon explains, in this exclusive extended report, the numbers certainly suggest that all is not quite what it seems at Anfield… Continue reading

Sportsman Racing: Princely Reward at 40/1

In this regular Monday segment, racing expert Scott Armstrong rounds up all the action of note from this weekend’s racing for SBC Blog readers.

On Friday, Scott labelled this weekend’s feature race – the Cambridgeshire as a ‘fiendishly difficult puzzle’ and so it proved with an unexpected 40/1 winner, which was so unfancied, he wasn’t even backed by his professional gambling owners!

Scott unpacks both that race and also some of the other highlights of the weekend past, with the previously highlighted ‘Lexington Bay’ obliging at 12/1 at Haydock and an 11 strong list of horses to follow, based upon his own recent race watching analysis. Continue reading

Football Bulletin: Are Arsenal Just First Half Wonders?

By utilising the excellent Form Lab Black software, the team at the Secret Betting Club have cast their eye over some of the weekend’s feature games in search for any angles of betting interest.

Last week at £10 stakes, our suggested bets would have made a £10.80 profit from just £30 risked.

This weekend, we start off with two teams woefully out of form in the league in Arsenal and Bolton who meet at the Emirates.

Arsenal vs Bolton

Arsenal have picked up just four points from the first five games, conceding an incredible 14 goals so far – That’s one more than their opponents Bolton. Can they bounce back? History says they can. Arsenal have won 15/20 home matches following a loss in their previous league fixture, with 12 W/W doubles. Continue reading

Sportsman Racing: Questioning Is The Answer

Welcome to our latest column from Scott Armstrong of The Sportsman tipster service.

Each Friday, Scott will be provide us with a rundown of all the best weekend racing action – all the key  horses to follow and those to oppose. You can also find a recap from him each Monday on the SBC Blog with his reaction to the weekend’s events. Thorough, frank and not afraid to take a contrary view Scott Armstrong is a racing man whose opinion you can’t afford to be without.

This week Scott is off to racing HQ where he casts his keen eye over all the main runners and riders in the punting minefield that is the Cambridgeshire. Scott sees value with one of John Gosden’s runners, who in racing without an expected 10lb penalty is expected to go very close at a double figure price. Continue reading

Rugby World Cup Betting: Will England put on a cricket score?

In a previous post on the Rugby World Cup, we highlighted the following stat:

According to the Racing Post, in the last World Cup, there were 20 pool matches featuring handicaps of 30 points or more. Eight favourites covered the handicap while 12 fell short. 

Or put another way, 12/20 underdogs beat their handicap. Therefore we decided to keep track of the big handicap games for the 2011 World Cup. A 30.50 or greater handicap means that the underdog get a 31 point head start for the game. If they lose by less than this, the bet is a winner. Continue reading