Mikes Football Bets 29th April

Only a brief message today, but I have found 5 bets, which I feel offer value for this weekend’s action.

Bolton are the first main bet and although a bit Jekyll and Hyde lately, I feel are under-valued away at a Blackburn side in free-fall who are ridiculously short at 2.10 to win. My Liverpool bet is similar to the winning one last Saturday against Birmingham and with Newcastle safe, this to me looks an easy home win for the revitalised Merseysiders. I don’t rate Alan Pardew one bit and Liverpool’s home form is extremely solid, with Suarez really catching the eye. The final main bet is pretty straightforward and looking for at least 3, if not 4 goals in the Blackpool – Stoke City game. The Tangerines are going to have to go for a win here and the goals stats for both teams at home and on the road suggest the 2.06 from Ladbrokes is very generous.

Good luck with all your bets this weekend!

Main Bets
1 pt Bolton (+0.5 Asian Handicap) V Blackburn. 1.92 188bet/12bet
1 pt Blackpool V Stoke City. Over 2.75 goals. 2.06 Ladbrokes
1 pt Liverpool (-1 Asian Handicap) V Newcastle. 1.90 12Bet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Sunderland (0 Asian Handicap) V Fulham. 1.87 Pinnacle
1 pt West Brom V Aston Villa. Over 2.5 goals. 1.88 Pinnacle

Fink Tank Ratings & Value Bets

You can find some background on this test here.

Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. The Fink Tank team found that shots on target was the best predictor of the outcome of a football game and when you rate this for various attributes you can have a reliable prediction model. For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds. The bigger the difference, the bigger the value on offer in theory.

This week’s bets:

Note, if a game isn’t listed, it means there’s no value at all in that game.

For more tests of ratings services like this in sports from football to horse racing, check out how membership of Secret Betting Clubcould help you.

Fink Tank Ratings & Value Bets

You can find some background on this test here.

Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. The Fink Tank team found that shots on target was the best predictor of the outcome of a football game and when you rate this for various attributes you can have a reliable prediction model. For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds. The bigger the difference, the bigger the value on offer in theory.

This week’s bets:

Note, if a game isn’t listed, it means there’s no value at all in that game.

For more tests of ratings services like this in sports from football to horse racing, check out how membership of Secret Betting Clubcould help you.

Fink Tank Ratings & Value For The Easter Weekend

You can find some background on this test here.

Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. The Fink Tank team found that shots on target was the best predictor of the outcome of a football game and when you rate this for various attributes you can have a reliable prediction model. For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds. The bigger the difference, the bigger the value on offer in theory.

This week’s bets:

Note, if a game isn’t listed, it means there’s no value at all in that game.

For more tests of ratings services like this in sports from football to horse racing, check out how membership of Secret Betting Clubcould help you.

Fink Tank Ratings & Value For The Easter Weekend

You can find some background on this test here.

Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. The Fink Tank team found that shots on target was the best predictor of the outcome of a football game and when you rate this for various attributes you can have a reliable prediction model. For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds. The bigger the difference, the bigger the value on offer in theory.

This week’s bets:

Note, if a game isn’t listed, it means there’s no value at all in that game.

For more tests of ratings services like this in sports from football to horse racing, check out how membership of Secret Betting Clubcould help you.

Mikes Football Bets 22nd April

Its Easter Weekend and as usual a feast of football to get stuck into with for once a full Premier League betting card on offer.

Firstly a reflection on the last 2 bets which went against us, with both the games featuring Arsenal – Liverpool and Newcastle – Man Utd failing to witness 3 or more goals as hoped. It was especially galling in the scoreless draw at St James Park as there were no less than 30 shots between the sides.

This weekend you may look at my bets and think they lack imagination as it’s on a string of home teams to win but it is just the way the dice have fallen in terms of value. I must admit there isn’t a whole load of strong looking angles so just the 1 Main bet and 3 Shortlist bets to take in.

Of those home bets, Chelsea look to offer strong value to overcome a 1.75 Asian Handicap when they host a very poor West Ham team, who just don’t have the defensive personnel or wherewithal to keep out Carlo Ancelotti’s men. In half of their home games this season, Chelsea have won by 2 goals or more and the Hammers have been shipping goals of late with the only notable result the away team have picked up of note this season – the 0-0 draw at Spurs. That day only a herculean effort by Hammers custodian Robert Green earnt his side a barely deserved point.  I can’t see him repeating these efforts against a resurgent Didier Drogba and Florent Malouda – maybe even Torres will score!

Drilling down into my Shortlist bets, I fancy both Man Utd and Liverpool to overcome -1 Handicaps at home to Everton and Birmingham respectively. The United bet is similar to the one advised successfully against Fulham a fortnight ago and they have an outstanding home record, especially at home to the Toffees who roll over and have their tummy tickled whenever they go to Old Trafford. Everton have been in good recent form winning 6 of their last 9 games but then they have mostly been against bottom half sides – matches they would generally expect to win.

Local rivals Liverpool have also been impressive at home in general despite well known blips under Roy Hodgson earlier in the season. Birmingham will surely go for a point and one concern is if they are able to put the home team’s youthful backline under aerial and physical pressure and snatch a goal. I do expect the Reds to have too much though and a comfortable win by at least a goal makes the AH line at 1.82 look value.

Finally onto the enigma that is Sunderland who just a few months ago would have been a heck of a lot shorter than 2.15 to beat Wigan at home. This to me looks to be a reaction to short-term form and I do subscribe to the notion that form is temporary, class is permanent. With three points at home to Wigan effectively securing the Black Cats Premier League status for another season, I fancy this as value.

Main Bets
1 pt Chelsea (-1.75 Asian Handicap) V West Ham. 1.83 Canbet/Pinnacle/SBObet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Man Utd (-1 Asian Handicap) V Everton. 1.84 10bet/188bet/12bet
1 pt Liverpool (-1 Asian Handicap) V Birmingham. 1.82 Ladbrokes
1 pt Sunderland to beat Wigan. 2.15 William Hill

Mikes Football Bets 19th April

It seems a long while since we had any midweek Premier League action of note to get stuck into and the footballing gods are shining on us in the next couple of days with a few tasty fixtures to get amongst.

First of all there is the must win game down at White Hart Lane where Spurs host fierce rivals Arsenal in what should be a cracking contest for the neutral. Both teams need 3 pts for differing reasons, so it should be fairly attacking game, especially considering the current North London based goalkeeping black hole. Both sides have about 8 goalies on their books, yet they would struggle to make one decent composite between them!

Betting wise in this game, despite the stats indicating that the under 2.5 goals in this game looks value, I have passed upon it bearing in mind the likely gung-ho nature here. You can get 2.20 with 188bet pre kick-off but my advice is to look to the in-play markets instead for good trading options.

I have picked out one strong value bet, but this time in the over 2.5 goals market in the game featuring Newcastle and Man Utd, where the away team will be chomping at the bit to get the FA Cup Semi defeat out of their system. United have their talisman Rooney back, who will have fond memories of this ground having stuck a brace past the Geordies last time up at St James Park. 188Bet are offering odds of 1.93 on over 2.5 goals, which equates to a 51.81% chance of occurring according to them. The stats tell a different picture with Newcastle’s home games having seen 59 goals in 15 games and United on the road seeing 51 goals in their 15 matches. That makes 30 games in total, in which both sides have kept just 6 clean sheets between them and with Steve Harper and Rio Ferdinand doubtful, each team may will be missing a key part of their back 5. I make the percentage chance of 3 goals or more about a 60%+ chance so some stonking value here to get stuck into.

Main Bets
1 pt over 2.5 goals. Newcastle V Man Utd. 1.93 188bet

Fink Tank Ratings & Value Bets for the 16th Onwards

You can find some background on this test here.

Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. The Fink Tank team found that shots on target was the best predictor of the outcome of a football game and when you rate this for various attributes you can have a reliable prediction model. For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds. The bigger the difference, the bigger the value on offer in theory.

Last week:

A pretty good performance last week with some great value on offer to return 5.05 points profit.

This week’s bets:

Things don’t look so easy this week. Note, if a game isn’t listed, it means there’s no value at all in that game. The West Brom Chelsea game is a Chelsea/ West Brom (12) Double Chance, the same as laying the draw.

For more tests of ratings services like this in sports from football to horse racing, check out how membership of Secret Betting Clubcould help you.

Fink Tank Ratings & Value Bets for the 16th Onwards

You can find some background on this test here.

Fink Tank provide predictions on football games based on their model which is roughly based around shot on target. The Fink Tank team found that shots on target was the best predictor of the outcome of a football game and when you rate this for various attributes you can have a reliable prediction model. For our test, we use the predictions from Fink Tank and only bet when the predicted % chance is better than the predicted chance implied by the available bookmaker odds. The bigger the difference, the bigger the value on offer in theory.

Last week:

A pretty good performance last week with some great value on offer to return 5.05 points profit.

This week’s bets:

Things don’t look so easy this week. Note, if a game isn’t listed, it means there’s no value at all in that game. The West Brom Chelsea game is a Chelsea/ West Brom (12) Double Chance, the same as laying the draw.

For more tests of ratings services like this in sports from football to horse racing, check out how membership of Secret Betting Clubcould help you.

Beating The Bookies With Niche Betting

One of the best ways to make money betting is to focus on areas where the bookmakers are vulnerable and what we call ‘niche betting’.

In plain English, this means specialising in areas that the overworked and over stretched bookmaker odds compilers may not have time for.

For example, any bookie worth his salt knows all the inside outs of a Man United – Chelsea Champions League game, but how much would they know about Histon V Darlington, a game only 277 people will attend?

Taking this further:

  • Do you know more than the bookies when it comes to French & Belgium cycling?
  • How much more do you know about minor Golf or Tennis tournaments?
  • How strong is your lower league Scottish Football expertise?
  • National Hunt chase races – Is this a field you specialise in?

Often bookies simply don’t have the resources or depth of knowledge to cover every single sport or league. They still however price many of these events up and so are very vulnerable to ‘niche betting’ experts.

Niche Betting Experts, Tipsters & Forum Advice

We have long since championed niche betting and recently released our ‘Build Your Own Betting Niche’ article, written specifically for the Secret Betting Club by non-league football betting expert – Skeeve.

Skeeve is well known for being perhaps the best non-league football betting expert out and has been making fantastic profits for a number of years betting in the Blue Square leagues. Bookies hate him but SBC members love him!

His special niche betting guide shows you how to replicate his own success and it’s a great place to start learning about putting it all into practice.

That’s not all though as here at the Secret Betting Club we also feature advice from other specialist experts, review niche betting tipsters and feature free advice up on our members forum.

Check some of our Niche Betting features below…

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