How to use the Fink Tank ratings

Enjoy this sample article, which was first published in Secret Betting Club Issue#55 from November 2010. For more articles like this and the latest info on the Fink Tank be sure to take up a full Secret Betting Club membership.

Powerful Football Ratings: Fink Tank
Service Name:
Fink Tank

Website: http://www.dectech.org/football/index.php
Cost: Free

Fink Tank is a free football predictor that is provided by Detech and sponsored by the (English) Times newspaper. It’s named after Daniel Finkelstein who writes regular columns in the Times, but was originally created by Henry Scott and Alex Morton.

We last wrote about the Fink Tank’s predictions towards the end of the last football season and have been blogging on our progress following the predictions this season via our blog https://secretbettingclub.com/blog/category/fink-tank/

As a quick summary, Fink Tank use shots on target as the basis for their prediction model and weight this based on certain factors such as home bias and other factors. With goals generally at a premium in football matches, a crossbar or dodgy penalty can mean a team undeservedly losing a game. A better judge of a team’s dominance and ability is apparently the ratio of shots on goal a team has and allows against it.

The reason is that there will be more shots on target than goals in a particular game, which provides you with more data by which to assess a team’s true strength. The more shots a team manages to create, more goals it is likely to score, so the theory goes.

Fink Tank provide their predictions in the form of estimated probabilities for the home win, draw and away win. You can then compare this to the available odds to assess whether a particular game offers value.

Taking this approach we previously assessed Fink Tank’s performance from 07 to 09 in the English Premier League.

Unfortunately the ratings did not prove too profitable, but there were a few caveats including there being a number of games missing and a shocking away performance in 07. Ultimately, though the ratings did ‘outsmart’ the performance of just backing home/ draw/ away matches blindly. This performance was also based on average bookie odds before kickoff, when bigger returns might have been possible by shopping around.

Fink Tank Value Betting Update

Our approach in testing the ratings this season has been to simply back an outcome whenever the odds available are better than what the odds should be according to Fink Tank. This means a mix of short priced favourites and long shots.

As we have had to track everything manually, we have been tracking the English Premier League only. We have been recording the best odds realistically available (No two-bit bookmakers).

Performance up to the end of November is as follows:

Bets: 124
Profit:
31.47
ROI:
25% ROI

The 2010/2011 season total runs as follows:

As you can see, the ratings have managed to pick out some good value, with a number of big priced winners making all the difference.

So far this season there have been a handful of big priced away team winners, which is quite the opposite of previous seasons. Thankfully, the Fink Tank ratings have ensured the value bets fell on the right side of these.

Highlights include Wigan beating Arsenal away at 13.59, Blackpool beating Newcastle away at 9.0, West Brom beating Arsenal at 18.50 and Newcastle beating Arsenal at 14.04. You might spot a north London trend there with Arsenal being at the receiving end of the shock results.

The home/ away split is as follows:

Home bets:
Bets:
64
Profit:
0.82
ROI:
1.2% ROI

Away bets:
Bets:
61
Profit:
29.65
ROI:
48.60% ROI

So far, the returns are bucking the long term trend. Indeed backing the away side blindly would have produced a small profit so far this season. What the Fink Tank ratings have done is spot the value in those selections.

In fact, it is the big priced home and away value picks that have carried the Fink Tank Predictions this season. Perhaps the bookmakers are over compensating after getting the strong home bias wrong last season. In 2010/2010, you could have made a profit blindly backing all home games in the Premier League.

Higher value, higher profits

If you were to have restricted yourself to games offering strong value, your profits would have been even better this season. Greater value means that there is a bigger difference between Fink Tank’s prediction for a home/ draw/ away win and the odds on offer at the bookmakers.

Bets Profit ROI
All 124 31.47 25%
>5% Value 113 36 32%
>10% Value 84 48 57%
>15% Value 66 42 64%
>20% Value 39 54 130%

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For example, restricting your bets to games with more than 10% value would have returned 48 points with an ROI of 57%.

The sample size is on the low side here, but it does help underline the importance of value betting. The size of the value appears to indicate the degree of error in the bookmaker’s pricing.

It’s also worth pointing out that value is not the same was probability. For example Fink Tank’s estimation of the probability of West Brom beating Arsenal away was just 8.2%. If the same match were to be played 100 times, West Brom would have been expected to win just 8 of those games. However, as the bookmaker odds were implying a probability of just 6.9%, there was value on offer (34% difference).

Not all of the big value picks have been at long odds, but its probably fair to say that there has been some good fortune this season in converting the big value bets into winners.

How to find value bets

It can be a little confusing learning how to convert Fink Tank’s probabilities into value bets, so we have created a Fink Tank value bet tool for you.

You can download this spreadsheet here: https://secretbettingclub.com/FinkTankValue.xls

Get the odds.

The first step is to record the odds on offer from bookmakers. You can use any method to do this, but we prefer to use www.oddsportal.com

Click on the league to view the summary for the forthcoming week.

This will display the summary for all those games including the average odds available. We suggest you create an account with oddsportal so you can remove the odds from any bookmakers you have no intention of using.

The odds will look a little something like this:

1 = Home win
2 = Away win
X = Draw

For speed, we record these average odds to quickly find out which way the value lies, but then click on each game to get the best odds once we’ve decided which bet we’re taking.

We can see that Wolves are 4.44 to beat Blackburn for example.

You don’t have to record the odds from all the upcoming games, this is just the method we’ve been using for tracking purposes. You can easily just record the odds for any particular game that you’re interested in examining.

Get the ratings.

The next step is to get the ratings from http://www.dectech.org/football/index.php These will be presented as follows:

We can see that Wolves are given a 24.9% chance of beating Blackburn away for example while Arsenal are given a 72.7% chance of beating Fulham away.

Use the Value Tool.

Download our Fink Tank Value tool from here: https://secretbettingclub.com/FinkTankValue.xls

The tool automatically works out the value for you, but at the moment you still need to manually enter the odds and the predictions. The odds can be copied and pasted from oddschecker, but for ease of explanation, we’re going to just type these in.

The first two columns are optional (Date and Game), but useful for keeping your records.

Next you enter the home odds, draw odds and away odds available. For speed, we’ve been entering the average odds from oddsportal, but there are many different methods you can use here.

FT H, FT D and FT A refer to Fink tank’s predicted probabilities for Home, Draw and Away respectively.

We have entered the information for the Birmingham Spurs game here:

Now the value tool will spring to life and tell you if there is a bet here.

The % Home, % Draw and % Away display implied probability from the bookmaker’s odds. This is automatically generated, allowing you to compare Fink Tank’s predictions with the bookmaker odds. If Fink Tank’s predicted probability (on the left) is greater than the implied probability.

Fink Tank (FT) Away win probabilities are slightly bigger than the probability implied by the bookmakers, giving us a value bet. Fink Tank make Spurs a 46.6% shot, while the average bookie odds are implying a 46% shot. There’s not much in that, but it seems to be a better bet than backing Birmingham or the Draw.

The next column will automatically display this for you:

It will turn green with a number 1 if that match outcome represents value.

If you do have a bet, the next step is to input the actual best odds available. According to Oddsportal, you can actually get 2.20 in many places.

You now need to enter the next few columns manually.

Here we’ve entered the pick, the price, the bookie. The finals columns are automatically generated. They show Fink Tank’s predicted value probability and the value on offer.

We can see that backing Spurs at 2.2 is value, but only 3.70% value even taking the best odds on offer. Considering that Birmingham are home under dogs, you might find enough reasons to skip this bet.

If you wanted to scan the whole league, we find it easier to enter all the odds & probabilities in one batch then assess the bets. We’ve done this for the forthcoming fixtures below:

There is some big value on offer in some of these games and we believe this is important keeping in mind the dominance of the elite and non elite top half clubs in the Premier league.

For example, Chelsea taking on Everton is an Elite vs bottom half match which hugely favours Chelsea. Indeed Fink tank give Chelsea just a 15.9% chance of victory, but by taking the best price of 10.98 you are getting good value. If Everton were less than 10% value then you might wish to think again.

Value betting is about dealing with probabilities. No team has a 100% probability of winning, what you are trying to ensure is that you are adequately rewarded when the unexpected does happen.

There can be some good value at relatively low prices though, such as Wigan at 2.72 which offers nearly 14% value according to Fink Tank.

Conclusions

The Fink Tank ratings have provided a good account of themselves so far this season, picking up some huge value bets along the way. No doubt there has been some luck in converting value into actual profits, but there’s no denying that using Fink Tank would have helped you get on the right side of those upsets. It has certainly helped that this is turning out to be one of the most open Premier Leagues in recent years, so that must be a consideration. We unfortunately have no data for Fink Tank’s predictions for other leagues, but imagine their accuracy would be in line with what we have been able to test.

At the very least, we believe that Fink Tank’s ratings provide a useful filter from which to refine your bets further. For example, you might want to take into account the home underdog effect and be wary of opposing elite teams unless there is clear value. Derby games might also be avoided unless there is clear value. As the ratings take no account of form, they could be used well in conjunction with a stats tool such as Form Lab Pro or the excellent free http://simplesoccerstats.com/

According to our private testing, Fink Tank ratings are not as well calibrated as commercial offerings such as Winabobatoo, but considering that Fink Tank’s ratings are freely available, we have heartily recommend members involve them as part of their betting arsenal.

Free Tipster Review: Northern Monkey Punter

Enjoy this sample review, which was first published in Secret Betting Club Issue#55 from November 2010. For more reviews like this and the latest stats on this service be sure to take up a full Secret Betting Club membership

King of The Tipster Swingers:
Northern Monkey Punter

Service Name: Northern Monkey Punter
Website:
http://www.northernmonkeypunter.co.uk/

Price: £19.99 for 30 days, £34.99 for 60 and £49.99 for 90 days membership

Summary of findings

– 30% ROI over 600 bets since February.
– 24% ROI to Betfair SP over the same period.
– Advises bets the night before racing.
– Superb customer service.
– Concerns over pressure on odds availability.

Monkey See, Monkey Do

We have been looking forward to penning a review of this service for quite some time now as the Northern Monkey tipster aka Wayne has really impressed us since he began proofing in late June this year. With an additional proofed record dating back to February at the Racing Index website and a ROI in the region of 29% over 600 or so bets, its easy to see where our interest lies.

To give a bit of background, Wayne is from the North of England (hence the service name) and began his site as a free service back in February as he attempted to build up a following.

All bets were initially proofed at Racing Index, before he agreed to also proof to us at the end of June this year. Not long after that, in July he first introduced a fee for his advice, which still offers great value for money. 30 days costs £19.99, 60 days £34,99 and 90 days membership is £49.99. Set against his record in 2010, he has provided one of the best value services we have monitored this year. Certainly enough to keep this particular monkey well stocked when it comes to bananas!

Currently it seems Wayne combines running NMP with his day-job and so therefore he sends all email selections out the night before racing. There are obvious pros and cons to this, which we detail further on, but we have been struck by his prompt reply to emails and very professional approach. For someone who runs the service around his main job, he puts some full-time tipsters to shame!

Wayne is consistent with his staking plan as bets range from 0.25 pts and up to a 3 pt maximum. Most bets are advised to be backed each way and are at decent prices generally, with value betting being the ultimate goal, i.e. backing a horse at a bigger price than its realistic chances.  Where possible Wayne advocates the use of a Best Odds Guarantee bookmaker as well so as to benefit from any drifters in price. Considering most bets are advised the night before racing, this can be especially beneficial.

Each bet also comes with a detailed write-up as to its choosing with a recent example below…

2.35 Doncaster

This middle distance handicap looks a decent little event. Spanish Duke heads the betting at 11/4 and looks to hold a strong chance. He is up 9 lbs for an easy win last time out and although he isn’t yet fully exposed I think other rivals are better priced. King’s Destiny has dropped back down to his last winning mark and with Michael Jarvis bang in form with a strike rate around 50 % in the last fortnight, he is entitled to run a big race. Ideally, I’d want 10/1 plus to back him though and ELLA looks a decent alternative at 12/1. Alan Swinbank is in decent form himself (5 winners from his last 21 runners) and his six-year-old mare is his only runner of the week at Doncaster (also entered in another handicap on Saturday). She hasn’t had much racing for her age as she needs some cut in the ground, but she could never land a blow behind an enterprisingly ridden winner last time and is entitled to come on for the run. She showed she acts at this track when a good third in the valuable November handicap here last season and now the ground is deteriorating towards the back end of the season she should enjoy a bit more action.

Advised bet: Ella 12/1 Paddypower, 0.5 pt EW (3 places, 1/5 odds)

Performance Levels

Results wise there are a few diference metrics which results have been calcuated to. Advised prices are those suggested by Wayne in his email and take advantage of any benefits if a bet drifts and are to be placed with a best odds guarantee bookmaker. Via the Racing Index site we can also view the results to Betfair SP and SP, which are useful to see the differences in odds on offer.

Summary @ advised prices

ALL 582 621.5 184.61 29.70%
Last 6 months 472 503.75 155.36 30.84%
Last 3 months 159 143 62.18 43.48%

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Monthly Breakdown @ advised prices

Month Bets Stakes Profit ROI
Feb-10 20 25 15.59 62.36%
Mar-10 35 32.5 12.9 39.69%
Apr-10 55 60.25 0.76 1.26%
May-10 70 103 98.83 95.95%
Jun-10 79 102 0.14 0.14%
Jul-10 100 91.5 8.8 9.62%
Aug-10 64 64.25 -14.59 -22.71%
Sep-10 52 52.5 50.31 95.83%
Oct-10 64 53 8.97 16.92%
Nov-10 43 37.5 2.9 7.73%
TOTAL 582 621.5 184.61 29.70%

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The main figure is the long-term achieved 29.70% ROI, which is outstanding performance and shows what can be obtained if following at advised prices. As the monthly breakdown shows though it does require patience at times with both May and September providing almost 150 of the 184 pts profit generated. Its normal to observe a quiet month or two as you wait for the big rewards to come in. There has been just the one losing month back in August, when 14.59 pts were handed back to the bookmaker, albeit temporarily.

The swings if following this service are best observed on the graph below, where a couple of noticeable spikes can be viewed. These represent a couple of large winners, indicating the need to be patient and follow each and every bet.

We have also listed the breakdown of returns for each month at Betfair SP to illustrate the differences on offer if following.

Monthly Breakdown @ Betfair SP

Month Bets Stakes Profit ROI
Feb-10 18 22 4.4 20.00%
Mar-10 35 31 5.19 16.74%
Apr-10 71 59.25 -9.19 -15.51%
May-10 78 98.25 58.67 59.72%
Jun-10 77 94.75 1.93 2.04%
Jul-10 102 91.5 7.1 7.76%
Aug-10 67 64.25 -21.14 -32.90%
Sep-10 52 53 87.5 165.09%
Oct-10 61 54 2.07 3.83%
Nov-10 44 37.5 9.1 24.27%
TOTAL 605 605.5 145.63 24.05%

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Monthly Breakdown @ SP

Month Bets Stakes Profit ROI
Feb-10 18 22 1.79 8.14%
Mar-10 35 31 1.47 4.74%
Apr-10 71 59.25 -15.55 -26.24%
May-10 78 98.25 36.62 37.27%
Jun-10 77 94.75 -7.44 -7.85%
Jul-10 102 91.5 -8.48 -9.27%
Aug-10 67 64.25 -23.49 -36.56%
Sep-10 52 53 44.88 84.68%
Oct-10 61 54 -1.56 -2.89%
Nov-10 44 37.5 0.03 0.08%
TOTAL 605 605.5 28.27 4.67%

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Comparison table of all 3 methods

Advised 582 621.5 184.61 29.70%
Betfair SP 605 605.5 145.63 24.05%
SP 605 605.5 28.27 4.67%

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As the tables indicate there is a difference between the results obtained to each of these methods, although even at Betfair SP the ROI level is still a very impressive 24.05%. This is thanks in part to some very big winners, where the Betfair SP was a lot higher than advised price such as Colonel Mak on the 18th September. The advised price was 33/1, whereas Betfair SP paid out at 75.94!

In general it would appear that the majority of the time, the better prices lie when taking an early advised price with the exception of those at bigger odds, where the Betfair SP can often be very high. A mixed strategy of following at Advised or Betfair sp could be one way to go.

Proofing wise we have only received the advised bets direct to us since the end of June, although we can see the bets previous to this were accurate from the Racing Index record. There is no reason to doubt these are not correct and we are happy to work with these figures.

Red Sky at Night – Punters Delight!

Practicality wise, Wayne is one of those rare tipsters who supply the betting advice the night before racing. This it seems is forced upon him to some degree due to his day job, but it does also open up the service to those of you also with no time to spare during the day.

His betting advice will be with you in the evening before racing between 8 and 10pm by which time at least a handful of best odds guarantee bookmakers have priced up the race. On the very few occasions that they dont, such as a recent evening race at Dundalk where he advised a bet, he will settle results at SP. This doesnt happen too often.

From a time perspective it only takes perhaps a few minutes each day to place the bets, they are very simple to follow and well explained. What you need to be aware of however is the fact that prices can move if you dont get on your bets relatively soon after they have been sent through. The majority of the time the price movement can be small, so for example – 10/1 has become 9/1 but very occasionally a gamble can appear on a bet and the odds will move significantly.

A few recent examples of this include Equuleus Pictor, advised at 14/1 but as short as 8/1 come 10am, Galpin Junior 10/1 into 5/1 and Final Verse 14/1 into 9/1

Its fair to say that the bookmakers are more sensitive to large sums of money coming in for a big priced horse before the markets have settled. It may also be that as more people get wind of the quality of this service, that there is simply more money being put down and the odds are reacting to that.

Bear in mind as well that often there are only a handful of bookies who have priced up a bet the evening before the race with the usual suspects including VCbet, Bet365 and Paddy Power. If therefore you have experienced problems with account closures or restrictions with any of these bookies, this could be cause for concern.

What All This Means

In general we always recommend that the best practice for whatever service you are following is to take a bet at advised prices when it is received. This is especially the case for a service which has a record as strong as NMP.

It is certainly worth being aware of this factor before joining the service if you feel it will cause a problem for you. On the flipside though there may well be many members licking their lips at the prospect of a service that you can follow in the evenings so its swings and roundabouts here.

In Summary

There is plenty to like about Northern Monkey and Wayne has built up his tipping reputation in the right way. The customer service is excellent and he is very easy to deal with, quick to respond to questions and comes across as having a punter-centric attitude. He isn’t just here to make a quick buck, unlike so many in this game.

Results have been excellent with a near 30% ROI from around 600 bets suggested a very considerable profitable edge. That is up there with the likes of Equine Investments, who remain the benchmark for long-term proven tipster success.

Unlike Equine though the prices of membership are also extremely affordable and there are membership spaces available. At just £50 for 90 days subscription, it is the type of service that will be easy for many members to test out and also to make a profit above and beyond membership costs. Again this all backs up the fact that Wayne is putting his customers first and trying to build up his reputation the right way.

The only question marks in our mind relate to the small problems of practicality of advising bets the night before, which may open them up to greater odds movement in the future. As NMP becomes more popular, then more money is down and the more the prices move. You do also need to be aware of the need to get your bet on early where possible. Also we do need to consider the fact NMP is currently a part-time role for Wayne and it will be key to see how he copes with an increased workload if he maintains his performance.

With the completion of November we have 10 full months worth of proofed results and it’s fair to say Wayne has proven his success during this period. The Hall of Fame potential is clear to all but we want to see how things progress over the next few months especially from an increased exposure point of view.

For the time being therefore we are rating Northern Monkey as a recommended service, with a view to a Hall of Fame upgrade in the near future.

3 Key Pointers:

1. Statistics

Results available in detail on website. Results spreadsheet is updated and sent to members at the end of each calendar month.

2. Practicality Of Profits

Low workload but slight concern on odds movement and the use of only a few bookies when placing a bet the night before

3. Customer Service

Top quality service, commended.

SBC ratings:

Returns: Star RatingsStar RatingsStar RatingsStar Ratings
Risk:
Star RatingsStar RatingsStar Ratings
Cost:
Star RatingsStar RatingsStar RatingsStar Ratings
Transparency:
Star RatingsStar RatingsStar RatingsStar Ratings1/2
Suggested portfolio weighting:
Star RatingsStar RatingsStar Ratings
Overall:
Star RatingsStar RatingsStar Ratings1/2
Rating:
Buy

Mike’s Football Bets 21st December

An early look at the next round of fixtures for Boxing Day and the 27th, although ultimately a number of these maybe called off if the bad weather continues.

One likely casualty if it snows (thanks to the lack of under-soil heating) is the game at Bloomfield Road where Blackpool host Liverpool in a game the scousers will be keen for revenge after the shock loss at Anfield a few months back. The Seasiders are better away from home while Liverpool suffer regular travel-sickness and look very wobbly at the back. I see plenty of goalmouth action in this one and with 12Bet offering a very generous 1.82 on over 2.5 goals, it looks worth snapping up to me.

Similarly in the games featuring Man Utd and Sunderland and Chelsea and Arsenal I think the over 2.5 goals lines are too generous. Man Utd have gone overs in 67% of home games this season and 84% last season and if Sunderland persist with playing 3 up-front the 1.77 looks a decent punt (albeit only shortlist quality as I would want a smidge more odds-wise for a Main Bet). You can also get 1.95 on over 2.5 goals in the game at the Emirates, which represents a 51.2% chance, and as I make it more likely a 55% chance, will take this bet too. Chelsea are surely also too good to go too long before improving back to early season standards and they seem under-rated for a fixture they have dominated in recent times – The 2.08 on them with a 0 AH line with Bet365 looks a decent shortlist bet.

Two more main bets including Aston Villa with a surprisingly good 1.92 on a +0.25 Asian Handicap at home to Spurs. Villa for all their woes have lost just once at home this year and just three times last season so with a 0.46 point profit if it’s a draw this looks a good punt. Finally Bolton’s odds again look too good on them at 2.08 to beat West Brom at the Reebok. This large price looks like an over-reaction to the fact they have narrowly lost 2 tough away games recently, but at home they are very strong indeed. I think Bolton should be odds-on here and so snapping this one up.

Finally I want to back Wolves at 2.22 against a poor Wigan side, who especially struggle on the road. Since last season, the latics have lost 18 out of 27 away from home and whilst Wolves are hardly prolific themselves, they look to be over-priced. Unlikely to be a game for the purists, 1-0 is the most likely result I imagine.

Please note I will do my level best to get my advice for the 28th and 29th games up in good time, although as I am away for a few days over Christmas I may struggle with an Internet connection! Keep an eye on the blog on the 28th and over the festive period.

Main Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Blackpool V Liverpool. 1.82 12Bet
1 pt Aston Villa (+0.25 AH) V Spurs. 1.92 188bet
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Chelsea V Arsenal. 1.95 Pinnacle/SJ/188bet/SBObet
1 pt Bolton to beat West Brom. 2.08 188bet/5dimes

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Wolves to beat Wigan. 2.22 12Bet
1 pt Chelsea (0 AH) V Arsenal. 2.08 Bet365
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Man Utd V Sunderland. 1.77 10Bet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

Mike's Football Bets 21st December

An early look at the next round of fixtures for Boxing Day and the 27th, although ultimately a number of these maybe called off if the bad weather continues.

One likely casualty if it snows (thanks to the lack of under-soil heating) is the game at Bloomfield Road where Blackpool host Liverpool in a game the scousers will be keen for revenge after the shock loss at Anfield a few months back. The Seasiders are better away from home while Liverpool suffer regular travel-sickness and look very wobbly at the back. I see plenty of goalmouth action in this one and with 12Bet offering a very generous 1.82 on over 2.5 goals, it looks worth snapping up to me.

Similarly in the games featuring Man Utd and Sunderland and Chelsea and Arsenal I think the over 2.5 goals lines are too generous. Man Utd have gone overs in 67% of home games this season and 84% last season and if Sunderland persist with playing 3 up-front the 1.77 looks a decent punt (albeit only shortlist quality as I would want a smidge more odds-wise for a Main Bet). You can also get 1.95 on over 2.5 goals in the game at the Emirates, which represents a 51.2% chance, and as I make it more likely a 55% chance, will take this bet too. Chelsea are surely also too good to go too long before improving back to early season standards and they seem under-rated for a fixture they have dominated in recent times – The 2.08 on them with a 0 AH line with Bet365 looks a decent shortlist bet.

Two more main bets including Aston Villa with a surprisingly good 1.92 on a +0.25 Asian Handicap at home to Spurs. Villa for all their woes have lost just once at home this year and just three times last season so with a 0.46 point profit if it’s a draw this looks a good punt. Finally Bolton’s odds again look too good on them at 2.08 to beat West Brom at the Reebok. This large price looks like an over-reaction to the fact they have narrowly lost 2 tough away games recently, but at home they are very strong indeed. I think Bolton should be odds-on here and so snapping this one up.

Finally I want to back Wolves at 2.22 against a poor Wigan side, who especially struggle on the road. Since last season, the latics have lost 18 out of 27 away from home and whilst Wolves are hardly prolific themselves, they look to be over-priced. Unlikely to be a game for the purists, 1-0 is the most likely result I imagine.

Please note I will do my level best to get my advice for the 28th and 29th games up in good time, although as I am away for a few days over Christmas I may struggle with an Internet connection! Keep an eye on the blog on the 28th and over the festive period.

Main Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Blackpool V Liverpool. 1.82 12Bet
1 pt Aston Villa (+0.25 AH) V Spurs. 1.92 188bet
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Chelsea V Arsenal. 1.95 Pinnacle/SJ/188bet/SBObet
1 pt Bolton to beat West Brom. 2.08 188bet/5dimes

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Wolves to beat Wigan. 2.22 12Bet
1 pt Chelsea (0 AH) V Arsenal. 2.08 Bet365
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Man Utd V Sunderland. 1.77 10Bet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike