Fink Tank Test: Games for October 30th

I’m testing the predictive and value betting ability with the Fink Tank ratings. Have a good read of the first post here to make sense of it. Basically my rules are to bet when you can get odds which offer value when compared to Fink Tank’s predicted probability of each game.

So far a couple of big priced value bets have put the method over 20 points in profit. Generally there is bigger value on the underdogs.

So far the ratings have made a profit using a strictly value betting approach.

Profit: +25.81
Points wagered: 80
ROI (Profit divided by turnover): 32%

So a good performance so far, but pretty much all of this profit has come from landing a few big winners. Everything else has been pretty much break even.


Here are this weekend’s selections:

Mike’s Football Bets 29th October

A busy weekend of bets so I will get straight into it…

Over at the Emirates this weekend I am keen to follow in Arsenal to overcome a -2 Asian Handicap at 1.91 with Paddy Power against what looks a very poor West Ham side. After a recent blip against West Brom, the Gunners have perked up and with Fabregas & Walcott back they look a much more potent team. Arsenal have won by 2 goals or more in 13 out of 16 games against the bottom 12 teams since last season and I expect Robert Green to be a busy man!

Fulham also have a strong home record against the bottom 12 teams and have won 9 out of 12 games against these teams since the 09/10 season. They have had a very tough start to the season but have still drawn against Man Utd and Everton at home, with the only blip a narrow defeat to Spurs because of a very dubious goal. I fancy them at 1.91 with Pinnacle to have too much for a Jekyll and Hyde Wigan outfit.

I am keen to continue to follow in a fave team of mine this season – Bolton, who take on Liverpool who were far from convincing when beating poor travellers Blackburn last week. The trotters have drawn at home with the likes of Man Utd, Fulham & Birmingham and beaten Stoke this season so far and are a very tough not to crack at the Reebok. A draw looks to be the most likely result and I am taking a +0.25 AH on the home team at 1.98 with Ladbrokes.

Blackburn may be terrible on the road but at home they are a completely different proposition and if Samba and Nelson are back in defence, Chelsea will find it hard to break them down. Only Arsenal and Everton have won their in recent teams and then only by the odd goal. Blackburn at 1.95 with a +1.25 Asian Handicap from Betinternet looks value.

I also see value in siding with Sunderland away at inconsistent Newcastle this weekend in the North East derby. The +0.25 AH on them is 2.07 with Betinternet but I am going to include it as a shortlist only due to the complications that such intense derby games can bring.

Main Bets
1.5 pt Arsenal (-2 AH) V West Ham. 1.91 Paddy Power
1 pt Fulham to beat Wigan. 1.91 Pinnacle
1 pt Bolton (+0.25 AH) V Liverpool. 1.98 Ladbrokes
1 pt Blackburn (+1.25 AH) V Chelsea. 1.95 Betinternet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Sunderland (+0.25 AH) V Newcastle. 2.07 Betinternet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

Mike's Football Bets 29th October

A busy weekend of bets so I will get straight into it…

Over at the Emirates this weekend I am keen to follow in Arsenal to overcome a -2 Asian Handicap at 1.91 with Paddy Power against what looks a very poor West Ham side. After a recent blip against West Brom, the Gunners have perked up and with Fabregas & Walcott back they look a much more potent team. Arsenal have won by 2 goals or more in 13 out of 16 games against the bottom 12 teams since last season and I expect Robert Green to be a busy man!

Fulham also have a strong home record against the bottom 12 teams and have won 9 out of 12 games against these teams since the 09/10 season. They have had a very tough start to the season but have still drawn against Man Utd and Everton at home, with the only blip a narrow defeat to Spurs because of a very dubious goal. I fancy them at 1.91 with Pinnacle to have too much for a Jekyll and Hyde Wigan outfit.

I am keen to continue to follow in a fave team of mine this season – Bolton, who take on Liverpool who were far from convincing when beating poor travellers Blackburn last week. The trotters have drawn at home with the likes of Man Utd, Fulham & Birmingham and beaten Stoke this season so far and are a very tough not to crack at the Reebok. A draw looks to be the most likely result and I am taking a +0.25 AH on the home team at 1.98 with Ladbrokes.

Blackburn may be terrible on the road but at home they are a completely different proposition and if Samba and Nelson are back in defence, Chelsea will find it hard to break them down. Only Arsenal and Everton have won their in recent teams and then only by the odd goal. Blackburn at 1.95 with a +1.25 Asian Handicap from Betinternet looks value.

I also see value in siding with Sunderland away at inconsistent Newcastle this weekend in the North East derby. The +0.25 AH on them is 2.07 with Betinternet but I am going to include it as a shortlist only due to the complications that such intense derby games can bring.

Main Bets
1.5 pt Arsenal (-2 AH) V West Ham. 1.91 Paddy Power
1 pt Fulham to beat Wigan. 1.91 Pinnacle
1 pt Bolton (+0.25 AH) V Liverpool. 1.98 Ladbrokes
1 pt Blackburn (+1.25 AH) V Chelsea. 1.95 Betinternet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Sunderland (+0.25 AH) V Newcastle. 2.07 Betinternet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

The Sportsman’s Weekend Wager Article

This weeks column from Scott of The Sportsman service came in a bit too late to appear in Fridays Weekend Wager email so we have posted it below. Enjoy!

“Play Your Cards Right”

A huge game within the context of Scottish football takes place in Glasgow this weekend as Celtic and Rangers put their 100% league winning records on the line.

The layers are going to make few if any mistakes in a big match like this as they will have covered all bases but let’s see if any angle can be found for profit. Match prices are the first starting point. As far as I know and contrary to popular folklore the layers don’t offer different prices in Glasgow shops depending on what side of the city you reside in. Celtic I had pencilled in at 6-4 and they are a little shorter at a best current price of 11-8. The surprise for me is that Rangers are available at 5-2 in place. A slice of that price could find you in an advantageous trading position especially after the away sides decent performance midweek against Valencia.

Just two matches out of the last eleven have finished 0-0 and if you fancy goals to be scored one avenue to consider is laying 0-0 at half time around 2.2 if you can obtain that price. With regards to the overs and under’s the last 14 matches have generated only 31 goals, an average of 2.21 per match. The one area I will be keen to see prices on is the bookings market. I would suggest if you can get over 55 booking points on any bookmakers who price up early at around evens then you have found yourself value.

In the Glasgow area this match has the feeling of the biggest match between the two for years – a powder-keg ready to explode. The average total bookings points over three seasons at Celtic Park is 84. It’s notable over the same time period that Rangers have picked up most bookings in all six matches averaging 55 bookings points to Celtic’s 29 – quite a difference. Player to be booked anytime is also worthy of consideration and David Weir, Rangers captain has been booked in three of the six matches he has played in, making him around an even money chance, Skybet go 9-4.For a bigger price Rangers striker Steven Naismith has been cautioned three times at Celtic Park in the three matches he has participated in over the last three seasons. He has got to be worth a shot of going in the book again at 11-2.

Match arbiter Willie Collum has not refereed any Old Firm match within the time period looked at, but this season in the SPL has issued an average of 38.75 bookings points including eight yellows in the game between St Mirren and Hamilton so can be handy with his cards. At this stage then bets to look out for are bookings points totals, the away side to collect bookings supremacy and smaller plays on Weir and Naismith of Rangers going in the book.

Recommended to Sportsman members:- 0.05 pts Naismith booked anytime @ 11-2 & 0.05 pts Weir booked anytime @ 9-4 with Skybet. Look out for other layers prices going up as undoubtedly Skybet won’t stand those odds.

The Sportsman's Weekend Wager Article

This weeks column from Scott of The Sportsman service came in a bit too late to appear in Fridays Weekend Wager email so we have posted it below. Enjoy!

“Play Your Cards Right”

A huge game within the context of Scottish football takes place in Glasgow this weekend as Celtic and Rangers put their 100% league winning records on the line.

The layers are going to make few if any mistakes in a big match like this as they will have covered all bases but let’s see if any angle can be found for profit. Match prices are the first starting point. As far as I know and contrary to popular folklore the layers don’t offer different prices in Glasgow shops depending on what side of the city you reside in. Celtic I had pencilled in at 6-4 and they are a little shorter at a best current price of 11-8. The surprise for me is that Rangers are available at 5-2 in place. A slice of that price could find you in an advantageous trading position especially after the away sides decent performance midweek against Valencia.

Just two matches out of the last eleven have finished 0-0 and if you fancy goals to be scored one avenue to consider is laying 0-0 at half time around 2.2 if you can obtain that price. With regards to the overs and under’s the last 14 matches have generated only 31 goals, an average of 2.21 per match. The one area I will be keen to see prices on is the bookings market. I would suggest if you can get over 55 booking points on any bookmakers who price up early at around evens then you have found yourself value.

In the Glasgow area this match has the feeling of the biggest match between the two for years – a powder-keg ready to explode. The average total bookings points over three seasons at Celtic Park is 84. It’s notable over the same time period that Rangers have picked up most bookings in all six matches averaging 55 bookings points to Celtic’s 29 – quite a difference. Player to be booked anytime is also worthy of consideration and David Weir, Rangers captain has been booked in three of the six matches he has played in, making him around an even money chance, Skybet go 9-4.For a bigger price Rangers striker Steven Naismith has been cautioned three times at Celtic Park in the three matches he has participated in over the last three seasons. He has got to be worth a shot of going in the book again at 11-2.

Match arbiter Willie Collum has not refereed any Old Firm match within the time period looked at, but this season in the SPL has issued an average of 38.75 bookings points including eight yellows in the game between St Mirren and Hamilton so can be handy with his cards. At this stage then bets to look out for are bookings points totals, the away side to collect bookings supremacy and smaller plays on Weir and Naismith of Rangers going in the book.

Recommended to Sportsman members:- 0.05 pts Naismith booked anytime @ 11-2 & 0.05 pts Weir booked anytime @ 9-4 with Skybet. Look out for other layers prices going up as undoubtedly Skybet won’t stand those odds.

Fink Tank Test: Games for weekend of 23rd.

I’m testing the predictive and value betting ability with the Fink Tank ratings. Have a good read of the first post here to make sense of it. Basically my rules are to bet when you can get odds which offer value when compared to Fink Tank’s predicted probability of each game.

So far a couple of big priced value bets have put the method over 20 points in profit. Generally there is bigger value on the underdogs.

So far the ratings have made a profit using a strictly value betting approach.

Profit: +20.32
Points wagered: 71
ROI (Profit divided by turnover): 29%

So a good performance so far, but pretty much all of this profit has come from landing a few big winners. Everything else has been pretty much break even.

Here are this weekend’s selections:

Mike’s Football Bets 22nd October

It’s been a crazy few weeks in the Premier League, even by its own often sometime ridiculous standards. What with all the lawyers, court cases and offers of 250k a week wages – it all makes me pine for the days when the biggest news of the day was the quality of mullet on offer. Check out some of these beauties for some light relief!  What was Barry Venison thinking!

There may be no mullets on offer at Stamford Bridge this weekend but it does feature my first bet of the weekend where I am very keen on Chelsea to overcome a 2.25 goal Asian Handicap at 2.1 with Bet365. Last season they won 8 of their 11 games against the bottom 12 of the league by 3 goals or more and have already stuck 4 and 6 past West Brom and Blackpool this year. They host a limited Wolves side and I see an easy 3 points here with hopefully lots of goals!

I also want to continue my net-busting bets on Blackpool this weekend where 12bet are offering 1.83 on over 2.5 goals when they visit Birmingham. The home team’s defence has lost the mean look it had last season and Blackpool have gone overs in 7 out of 8 games already. Ian Holloway ended his last game against Man City with 4 strikers on the field, whereas Brum will see this as a must win game and won’t sit back either.

I am quickly picking up some favourite teams for this season and one of these is Bolton who I am backing with a 0.25 Asian Handicap away at Wigan (1.85 Pinnacle). There are two sides going in contrasting directions and I am a fan of Owen Coyle and what he is doing at Bolton, who could be a dark horse this season.

Another quarter ball Asian Handicap for me is on West Brom to overcome Fulham, who continue to have a very poor record on the road. The Cottagers have drawn all 4 games away this season, whereas the Baggies have shown fantastic resilience and plenty of skill by beating Arsenal and drawing with United away recently. I am taking the -0.25 Asian with Canbet & SBObet on the home team at 1.90.

Main Bets
1.5 pt Chelsea (-2.25 AH) V Wolves. 2.1 Bet365
1.5 pt Blackpool V Birmingham. Over 2.5 goals. 1.83 12bet
1 pt Bolton (+0.25 AH) V Wigan. 1.85 Pinnacle
1 pt West Brom (-0.25 AH) V Fulham. 1.90 Canbet, SBOBet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Man City V Arsenal. Under 2.5 goals. 1.93 Pinnacle/12bet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

Mike's Football Bets 22nd October

It’s been a crazy few weeks in the Premier League, even by its own often sometime ridiculous standards. What with all the lawyers, court cases and offers of 250k a week wages – it all makes me pine for the days when the biggest news of the day was the quality of mullet on offer. Check out some of these beauties for some light relief!  What was Barry Venison thinking!

There may be no mullets on offer at Stamford Bridge this weekend but it does feature my first bet of the weekend where I am very keen on Chelsea to overcome a 2.25 goal Asian Handicap at 2.1 with Bet365. Last season they won 8 of their 11 games against the bottom 12 of the league by 3 goals or more and have already stuck 4 and 6 past West Brom and Blackpool this year. They host a limited Wolves side and I see an easy 3 points here with hopefully lots of goals!

I also want to continue my net-busting bets on Blackpool this weekend where 12bet are offering 1.83 on over 2.5 goals when they visit Birmingham. The home team’s defence has lost the mean look it had last season and Blackpool have gone overs in 7 out of 8 games already. Ian Holloway ended his last game against Man City with 4 strikers on the field, whereas Brum will see this as a must win game and won’t sit back either.

I am quickly picking up some favourite teams for this season and one of these is Bolton who I am backing with a 0.25 Asian Handicap away at Wigan (1.85 Pinnacle). There are two sides going in contrasting directions and I am a fan of Owen Coyle and what he is doing at Bolton, who could be a dark horse this season.

Another quarter ball Asian Handicap for me is on West Brom to overcome Fulham, who continue to have a very poor record on the road. The Cottagers have drawn all 4 games away this season, whereas the Baggies have shown fantastic resilience and plenty of skill by beating Arsenal and drawing with United away recently. I am taking the -0.25 Asian with Canbet & SBObet on the home team at 1.90.

Main Bets
1.5 pt Chelsea (-2.25 AH) V Wolves. 2.1 Bet365
1.5 pt Blackpool V Birmingham. Over 2.5 goals. 1.83 12bet
1 pt Bolton (+0.25 AH) V Wigan. 1.85 Pinnacle
1 pt West Brom (-0.25 AH) V Fulham. 1.90 Canbet, SBOBet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Man City V Arsenal. Under 2.5 goals. 1.93 Pinnacle/12bet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

The Changing Of The Tipster Guard

In last Friday’s Weekend Wager column I touched briefly about the changing of the guard when it comes to the world of betting tipsters and its something I am keen to unpack further via this blog.

That is because in the 4 and a half years that we have been running the Secret Betting Club there have been massive changes for good when it comes to betting using tipsters.

And as here at SBC we are often termed as helping uncover the Good, The Bad & The Ugly of betting tipsters, I will use this well used phrase to explain it all better to you…

The Bad – Fast Cars, Women & Swimming Pools!

Now the first type of tipster I want to talk about is undoubtedly the worst – the glossy leaflet brigade!

If your only experience of tipsters in the past has been via the glossy brochures that hit your letterbox, it’s no surprise if you have been scared off previously.

The promotions have common themes, often with a chap standing in front of a Porsche (although always in a car showroom!) and images of women in bikinis and pictures of a bundle of cash. All of which is designed to turn your head and get you excited enough to fire some likely sounded geezer £999 + VAT for the dubious privilege of his tips.

These glossy leaflets have now moved onto the Internet, where such tipsters and systems are churned out on a regular basis and the evolution of this uber-dodgy approach continues. At the SBC we report back on all such dubious promotions to our members so they can avoid them like the plague.

The Ugly – Unfair, Unclear & Out Dated

Moving on to the ugly, we have the old school brigade of tipsters who are far from transparent and that use outmoded methods of supplying bets.

Here I am talking about premium phone lines, shady claims of insider information, betting coups and of course –skulduggery when it comes to sharing official actual results.

You know the score, tactics such as

  • – Claiming winners at prices that may not have existed.
  • – Making lots of mentions of big priced horses so if one wins they can claim it was advised as a main bet!
  • – Tipping regular short priced faves that my granny could pick out.
  • – And the old chestnut…making up results!

Many of these tipsters are unfortunately almost household names in betting circles thanks to the cloak and dagger approach they employ. They are often expensive, hard to follow, unpractical and completely non-transparent.

They are thankfully a dying breed and are being replaced by the new breed of professional tipsters….

The Good – The New Breed

Finally we get to the Good and this is where we can help you out.

The tipsters we recommend here at SBC are always those that provide a genuine service, total transparency and proof of results, and whose results can be matched in reality.

This method of operating is 100% more professional and its why so many new people are investing their money in betting using tipsters. Email and text message supply of tips are the order of the day now and any tipster relying on premium phone lines to supply advice belong back in the 80’s with Gordon Gekko and Beta-Max.

Here at SBC we have some firm rules of what we expect from a tipster:

  • – Total transparency of results.
  • – Results also must be proofed and verified by a trusted source.
  • – Availability of odds.
  • – Easy to follow and pick up tips.
  • – Professional customer service.
  • – Sensible subscription fees.

We also take a dim view of any tipster who bases their profits on inside information because its often very unreliable as many such ‘insider’ contacts come and go.

Equally we dont recommend services who ask you to place money for you or who hide behind unproven results.

Through these (and other) rules we now have a fantastic list of proven profitable services that offer great betting advice, who we also follow ourselves.

So if your only experience with tipsters is with the bad and the ugly mentioned above, do check out this new breed that we monitor and report back on to all members. Thanks to the Internet, the standards we have set and a new tipster professionalism, the industry has moved on a huge amount in the last few years.

Fink Tank Test: Games for weekend of 16th

I’m testing the predictive and value betting ability with the Fink Tank ratings. Have a good read of the first post here to make sense of it. Basically my rules are to bet when you can get odds which offer value when compared to Fink Tank’s predicted probability of each game.

So far a couple of big priced value bets have put the method over 20 points in profit. Generally there is bigger value on the underdogs.

Here are this weekend’s selections: