How To Bet: Staking According To Profit Margin

At the Secret Betting Club, one of our goals is to help all our members not only make money betting through tipsters, systems and strategies but to understand better exactly how a profit is made by different betting experts.

The ultimate goal being to help empower as many people as possible to develop their own betting strategy or even to just help them simply understand some of the concepts of successful betting.

Via our regular Friday Weekend Wager emails, we have featured a number of articles to help with this goal, such as the recent columns from contributor – Herbie Fogg.

In this first of an ongoing set of articles, Herbie looks into value betting when it comes to horse racing – A key concept for every gambler to be aware of.

You can read more about Herbie and his free Key Racing News service here.

Stake According To Profit Margin

Picking good value horses is only the beginning. The mistake most people make is to link their stake purely to the probability of winning.

The size of stake should be controlled by the potential profit margin within the price. When applied correctly, you will often see a bigger stake linked to a longer odds selection – even though, statistically, it has less chance of winning than a 3/1 shot you are also backing on the same card.

Here’s how it works.

In gambling, probability (the chance of winning) is only one side of the coin. Effective betting is not just about winners, it is about the odds offered in comparison to your calculation of chance.

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Will Chelsea miss Lampard?

Frank Lampard out for 2 weeks, missing the big London Derby against Arsenal this weekend. The question – is how this will impact Chelsea?

It’s a hard one to answer with Lampard having an attendance record that would make the school swot Cuthbert Cringeworthy green with envy. Still, there are some interesting statistics available from the 29 games he’s missed since 2005.

Using stats tools from http://www.bettorlogic.com/ we can put some actual numbers on the board.

Since 2005, Chelsea have won 69% of their games with an average of 2.26 points per game.

Here’s the split for when Lamps is playing/ not playing:

Lamps played: Chelsea win 70% of games with an average of 2.29 points per game.
Lamps not played: Chelsea win 62% of games with an average of 2.10 points per game.

So Chelsea are indeed slightly worse off without Lampard; their win rate and average points per game drops without him.

Some of the absences above might have been when Lampard was rested against lesser opposition, so what if we isolate Chelsea’s record against top half teams only?

Now we get:

Lamps played: Chelsea win 68% of games with an average of 2.20 points per game.
Lamps not played: Chelsea win 38% of games with an average of 1.54 points per game.

Lampard missed just 13 of these 92 games but it still gives you an idea of his impact.

Overall the stats show that Chelsea are unlikely to fall to pieces without Lamps this weekend, but I’d want more than the 1.78 on offer for a Chelsea win against Arsenal, even after last week’s shock defeat to West Brom. Arsenal had 12 shots on target to the Baggies’ 5 in that game and Chelsea have just a 50% win rate against top 4 teams since 2005. I’d be looking for a price nearer 2.0 on the Chelsea win.

Dan Jones

Mike’s Football Bets 23rd September (In Full)

Plenty of very appealing bets this weekend and it’s proven hard to narrow them down as lots tick the boxes.

One of my strongest is at Upton Park where I expect goals as Harry Redknapp returns to one of his former teams – West Ham. The Hammers saw over 2.5 goals in 61% of all games, whilst Spurs did so in 58% of their matches last season – a trend that is continuing this year. The overs at 2.00 with Skybet suggests they have this as a 50% chance, whereas 60% seems more likely especially considering the home sides shaky defence. Hopefully Robert Green will be in nets!

I am also continuing my backing of Arsenal to overcome a 2 goal margin at home against bottom half teams (see my previous analysis here). They should have too much for West Brom but it’s worth noting as well that a lot of the Gunners goals come late in the 2nd half when they have worn these teams down. You can get 4/1 on a HT/FT result of Draw/Arsenal, which also doesn’t look too bad.

In the Saturday lunchtime kick-off we have the first real test of Chelsea this season who travel up to Eastlands for a crunch game. With 2 Italian managers in charge I think this could be a tight defensive affair and we have already seen how Mancini is lining up with De Jong, Barry & Toure solid in midfield. Since Bobby Manc (as the natives know him) took over, City have played 10 games against top 8 teams with 7 of these going under 2.5 goals. The 1.96 on this suggests a 51% chance of happening and I rate it more likely than that.

Over at Craven Cottage, I also spy a value bet on Fulham who take on an out-of-sorts Everton, who have a miserable record at this ground. 12bet and SBOBet offer 1.99 on Fulham with a 0 Asian Handicap, which I feel is value. I also continue to want to side with the over 2.5 goals on Blackpool who will persist with their attacking approach in the derby against Blackburn. The 1.91 on this with a number of bookies is a shortlist bet.

Other bets under consideration that missed out included under 2.5 goals between Newcastle and Stoke, although at 1.8 this looked fairly short.  The same reasoning precluded me from advising Birmingham to beat Wigan at 1.87, a price that is a bit on the skinny side for me.

Main Bets
1.5 pts West Ham V Spurs – Over 2.5 goals. 2.0 Skybet (early pick from Thursday)
1 pt Arsenal (-1.75 AH) V West Brom. 1.95 Bet365
1 pt Man City – Chelsea – Under 2.5 goals. 1.96 Canbet/12bet/SBObet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Fulham (0 AH) V Everton. 1.99 SBObet/12bet
1 pt Blackpool – Blackburn. Over 2.5 goals. 1.91 Pinnacle/SBObet/Canbet/10bet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

Fink Tank Predictions: This weekend's games

I’m testing the predictive and value betting ability with the Fink Tank ratings. Have a good read of the first post here to make sense of it.

Here are this weekend’s selections:


Note the Villa/ Bolton bet is a Double Chance 12, meaning we’re backing both Villa and Bolton, effectively laying the draw.

Fink Tank Predictions: This weekend’s games

I’m testing the predictive and value betting ability with the Fink Tank ratings. Have a good read of the first post here to make sense of it.

Here are this weekend’s selections:


Note the Villa/ Bolton bet is a Double Chance 12, meaning we’re backing both Villa and Bolton, effectively laying the draw.

Mike’s Football Bets 17th September

First a quick update on performance so far…

This Season

Main Bets: 6 bets, 6.5 pts staked, 1.42 pts profit, 40.57% ROI
Shortlist Bets: 5 bets, 5 pts staked, 1.65 pts profit, 33% ROI

Total (including last season)
Main Bets: 70 bets, 85 pts staked, 12.08 pts profit, 14.21% ROI
Shortlist Bets: 12 bets, 12 pts staked, 1.01 pts profit, 8.42% ROI

This weeks bets

Blackburn host Fulham on Saturday where Big Sam has quietly turned Ewood Park into a fortress with very few visiting teams likely to leave with all 3 points. They won 8 of their 11 home games last season against the bottom 12, whereas Fulham lost 5 out of 11 on the road against the same group. I equate the likelihood of a home win to be around 1.80 (effectively a 55% chance) and with 2.10 (47% chance) on offer with Ladbrokes, Paddy Power & Skybet this stands out as value to me.

Its a similar story as Stoke host West Ham, with the visitors having a dreadful away record, losing 11 of their 18 games on the road last year. The Potters on the other hand are strong at home especially to the bottom 12, winning 7 out of 11 games last season. Again I make the likely odds of a home win around 1.75 so the 2.0 on offer with Ladbrokes is yet more value.

Both Blackburn and Stoke will target these matches as the type they have to win and I would be surprised if at least 1 of them doesn’t oblige. Not going mad with stakes though as the season is still fairly new.

My 3rd main bet and home side to be backed this weekend is Sunderland who face a resurgent Arsenal fresh from scoring 6 goals in midweek against a shell-shocked Braga. It seems the odds on Arsenal have shrunk off the back of their good start to the season but I envisage a much tougher game for them up in the North East. Sunderland only lost 3 games at home last season (Man U, Chelsea & Villa) and the likely front pair of Bent and Gyan will pose the new Arsenal centre-back pair real problems. I like the +0.75 Asian Handicap at 2.1 with Pinnacle on the Black Cats.

No shortlist bets this weekend but worth noting that in the big game at Old Trafford, Liverpool won only 2 games on the road against the top 10 last season. They also lost all 4 games away at the top 4 last year but the best odds on a Man Utd win is a short enough 1.75. The angle of interest for me is on Sir Alex’s men to win to nil, which is 7/4 with Ladbrokes.

Main Bets
1 pt Blackburn to beat Fulham. 2.1 Ladbrokes/Paddy Power/Skybet
1 pt Stoke to beat West Ham. 2.0 Ladbrokes/Coral/Sky
1 pt Sunderland (+0.75 AH) V Arsenal. 2.11 Pinnacle/Betinternet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

Fink Tank Test Update

I’m testing the predictive and value betting ability with the Fink Tank ratings. Have a good read of the first post here to make sense of it.

So far the Fink Tank performed as follows:

Raw 1×2 betting: +12.59 points profit.
With team news filte
r: +9.24 points profit.

Last week’s games and the ongoing total:

It continues to be feast or famine with the ratings with a strong of losses made back with a big value pick on Blackpool to beat Newcastle.