How To Bet: Compound Staking – Will Einstein help you compound the problem?

In last week’s Weekend Wager column I touched on the subject of compound interest or ‘compounding’, which is often sold as the magic formula to getting rich quick, especially when betting.

The idea behind compounding is to constantly re-invest your profits back into your original bank. Thus your average stake size will increase as will your profit (that’s the theory anyway).

It’s often backed up by quotes from Albert Einstein where he declares compound interest as “the greatest mathematical discovery of all time” or the “8th Wonder of The World”. Whether or not he actually said these things is up for debate but it’s worth asking the question, does compounding work?

Well it depends on how you utilise it as it can be dangerous especially if you are dazzled by the £ signs and headline profit figures. The best thing to do is to check out the full impact, both in terms of profit and loss.

Take for example one service, which recommends a certain method of compounding (or re-investment as they call it). Via their banking advice, £1000 invested back in December 08 would now be £7718, effectively 671% growth.

The only problem with this is that the size of the bank is too small and they would have actually lost 95.9% of it during one losing run! Imagine you had a £10,000 starting figure, would you have the balls to continue if it went as low as £410!?!

Here’s another couple of examples from two different systems we feature in our latest edition.

The first example is from a high strike rate football system. Here you can see that compounding really works.

The next example is from a profitable but inconsistent laying system. Not so great!

In some circumstances, following such a staking plan will only compound your problems.

Less Boom But Less Bust!

What this service needs to do is effectively double the advised bank, so you are staking less on each selection. Of course you get less boom but also less chance of going bust (Gordon Brown would be proud!)

If taking this approach and compounding, the initial £1000 will still have grown into £3231.47 over the same period.  223% growth – not something to be sniffed at!

That one losing run I mentioned before would have only accounted for 47.95% of your bank, which is a bit more manageable.

I don’t know about you but I would be very happy with 223% long-term growth and a worst case scenario of losing 50% of my bank during a bad spell.

Pick up SBC Issue number 51, due out in the next couple of days for the full rundown on this approach, including details on how you could have made this 223% growth.

How We Can Help Further

I have kept the above example purposefully brief but getting your staking right is incredibly important, especially if compounding.

This is why we devote some much attention to staking in our Secret Betting Club newsletters. We rank and review close to 40 top performing tipsters including suggestions on the optimum bank size to use. Often tipsters themselves get it wrong or ignore staking completely, always double check and if in doubt, we’re here to help.

12 Questions to Ask Before You Subscribe to a Tipster or System

Over recent weeks, I have noted a real feeding frenzy when it comes to the promotion of some of the latest betting system and tipster products that have hit the market. The number of e-books, bots, laying systems and the like that are released these days can be mind-boggling. Many are backed by some well co-ordinated marketing campaigns, all of which are designed to reel in as many punters as possible.

Ultimately though it’s not the marketing that matters, but the actual profitability of the product and proof that what is being claimed is accurate.

Sadly many of these products (the systems especially) leave a lot to be desired and if not careful you can find yourself out of pocket both from purchasing their wares and from betting losses incurred when following.

All is not lost though as we have some guidelines to share with you to help you navigate this, with 9 helpful questions (and 3 extra for systems) for you to ask anyone who wants your money!

9 Questions to Ask a Tipster

1 ) Does your service have a live website and how regularly is it updated?
2 ) How long has your service/system been in operation?
3 ) Is there a full breakdown of your results available either online or via email?
4 ) How much results data is available?
5 ) Are your results proofed? – KEY QUESTION
6 ) If results are proofed, whom are they proofed to and does the proofing service have a transparent copy of detailed performance for me to view?
7 ) If results are not proofed, why is this and why should I believe the results being claimed as accurate?
8 ) What odds are your results calculated to?
9 ) If your betting advice is to be placed on Betfair, what level of Betfair commission do you deduct from winnings?

We have also 3 extra questions for those services selling a system, as far too often this is one area that is being abused. With a system it is easy to muddle past results by making it complicated to view past performance and any good system vendor will be able to provide proof of actual past performance.

3 Extra Questions for System Sellers

1 ) Has your system been historically proven and are you able to provide accurate results to verify this?
2 ) Are your results able to be back-tracked and how much past data is available?
3 ) If your results are not able to be back-tracked, what evidence can you provide to backup the results claimed?

If you don’t get accurate or convincing replies to these questions, you have every right to be cautious and our motto is ‘If In Doubt, Leave it Out’!

If this whole area leaves you scratching your head, help is at hand as a Secret Betting Club member. Our A to Z list at www.secretbettingclub.com/info contains details on lots of our past reviews of many popular products. If you can’t find a review for a product you are interested in, do also try the “Search The Site” option.

The Far East Betting Problem

A few weeks back I blogged about the corruption engulfing the Japanese Sumo Wrestling world but that is but the tip of the iceberg when it comes to betting problems out in the Far East.

On Friday, we had the latest insight into the murky world of illegal gambling in Asia with over 5000 people arrested in a major operation led by Interpol. Around $15m was apprehended from over 800 ‘gambling dens’, which were raided in China, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand in a concerted operation.  The question remains though as to the significance of these arrests and only serves to highlight a major problem for the authorities.

Renowned author on illegal Gambling, Declan Hill helped to share some colour on this story via his BBC viewpoint article, which is a fascinating read. He likens it to prohibition-era America, where alcohol consumption was illegal yet extremely popular, leading to the growth of an enormous underground industry with links to corruption and organised crime.

The same thing is occurring out in the Far East, with a huge interest in betting from the general population ultimately driving the whole industry underground.

What difference these arrests will make is up for question, indeed are they little more than a publicity stunt on the back of the World Cup? When you consider that back in 2006 this illegal industry was estimated to be as large as $450 Billion, the $15 Million figure confiscated in this bust is very insignificant.

In speaking with contacts in the betting industry in the UK, they have long painted the picture of some very big movers and shakers out in Asia moving large sums of money on European sport. Leagues as unfashionable as the Scottish 3rd division have much more invested on them than the 500 or so loyal fans that attend games by the likes of East Stirling will think possible.

Already we have also seen the influence that some so called Asian Bookies like SBOBet have brought to the betting market, offering to take large stakes and offering very competitive odds on football betting. It has really enhanced the options and also the returns possible from football betting.

It will be very interesting to see what comes out of these latest stories, is it the start of a concerted push against illegal gambling  or will it all just die away only to fan into flames after the next major betting event?

Equally, what are the chances of betting being legalised in some of these countries in the future?

If you have thoughts or experiences to share in relation to this topic, do let us know here at SBC as we would love to hear from you.

World Cup & Castrol Ratings Roundup

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

Here’s the update on the results of recent matches:

1. Uruguay vs Germany. 0.5 points Uruguay +0.75 @ 1.94 & 0.5 points on Germany to score over 1.75 goals @ 2.01. +0.26

2. Holland vs Spain: Holland: Holland to win world cup at 2.60. -1 A loss, but a great value call considering how the match was played out.

Final total: +10.49 points from 32 points staked. A 33% profit on turnover.

Overall I think the Castrol ratings did a very good job of spotting when the bookmakers had over egged a certain team. I’ll certainly be keeping my eye on the ratings for the coming season.

Secret Betting Club world cup guide

Before the world cup we put out our betting guide, drawing tips and expertise from many of the tipsters we track in our monthly magazine.

It’s interesting to read this with the benefit of hindsight and you can do this here: http://www.secretbettingclub.com/SBCWorldCupSpecial.pdf

Some of the experts picked out a few good trading opportunities with Holland and Germany both available above 10/1 before the first ball was kicked. Matt Nesbitt got the top scorer almost right in David Villa and spotted some value in Germany’s Klose at 33/1.

Overall, it was a tricky World Cup with lots of strange results, especially in the group stages, such as Italy and England drawing with New Zealand and Algeria. In the knockout round it became a bit easier but still well done if you managed to finish with a profit. Whatever you made, it wont be a patch on the £2.5 Billion profit that FIFA has estimated to have pocketed!

We also ran a world cup competition for all SBC members, with the eventual winner correctly picking out Ghana & Uruguay as Quarter-finalists, Holland to make the final as well as Diego Forlan each way in the Golden Boot. He ended up making 31.35 pts profit from just 18 pts staked, which is great tipping!

New Season Around The Corner

One of the problems of betting on a short tournament such as the World Cup is the fact it only runs for 4 weeks and can throw up some strange results. Over the course of a full football season, luck evens itself out and form settles down, making it easier to profit from long-term.

The good news is that the new season is only a few weeks away and we will be back in touch closer to its start with details on how to make money football betting.

World Cup & Castrol Ratings Roundup

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

Here’s the update on the results of recent matches:

1. Uruguay vs Germany. 0.5 points Uruguay +0.75 @ 1.94 & 0.5 points on Germany to score over 1.75 goals @ 2.01. +0.26

2. Holland vs Spain: Holland: Holland to win world cup at 2.60. -1 A loss, but a great value call considering how the match was played out.

Final total: +10.49 points from 32 points staked. A 33% profit on turnover.

Overall I think the Castrol ratings did a very good job of spotting when the bookmakers had over egged a certain team. I’ll certainly be keeping my eye on the ratings for the coming season.

Secret Betting Club world cup guide

Before the world cup we put out our betting guide, drawing tips and expertise from many of the tipsters we track in our monthly magazine.

It’s interesting to read this with the benefit of hindsight and you can do this here: http://www.secretbettingclub.com/SBCWorldCupSpecial.pdf

Some of the experts picked out a few good trading opportunities with Holland and Germany both available above 10/1 before the first ball was kicked. Matt Nesbitt got the top scorer almost right in David Villa and spotted some value in Germany’s Klose at 33/1.

Overall, it was a tricky World Cup with lots of strange results, especially in the group stages, such as Italy and England drawing with New Zealand and Algeria. In the knockout round it became a bit easier but still well done if you managed to finish with a profit. Whatever you made, it wont be a patch on the £2.5 Billion profit that FIFA has estimated to have pocketed!

We also ran a world cup competition for all SBC members, with the eventual winner correctly picking out Ghana & Uruguay as Quarter-finalists, Holland to make the final as well as Diego Forlan each way in the Golden Boot. He ended up making 31.35 pts profit from just 18 pts staked, which is great tipping!

New Season Around The Corner

One of the problems of betting on a short tournament such as the World Cup is the fact it only runs for 4 weeks and can throw up some strange results. Over the course of a full football season, luck evens itself out and form settles down, making it easier to profit from long-term.

The good news is that the new season is only a few weeks away and we will be back in touch closer to its start with details on how to make money football betting.

Castrol ratings for the final & playoff

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

Here’s the update on the results of recent matches:

1. Uruguay vs Holland: 0.5 pt Uruguay +0.75 handicap & 0.5 pt Holland to score over 1.5 goals. +0.265
2. Spain vs Germany: Spain to qualify @ 1.89. +0.89

Castrol was absolutely spot on with the Spain game. The ratings picked out that Spain had the better players which out ranked Germany’s recent form. This match was a real test for the ratings and it came up trumps.

Running total: +11.23 points from 30 points staked.

The Castrol ratings for the semi final matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet. The ratings are for the match result including over time and penalties not 90 mins.

Green means value. Red means no value. Chances & odds based on ‘to qualify’ i.e. including O/T & penalties

Third/ Fourth Place Play Off.

1. Uruguay vs Germany

Uruguay: 38% Chance -> Value odds: 2.63 -> Best odds 3.4
Germany: 62% Chance -> Value odds: 1.61-> Best odds 1.4

The Germans should win this, but the betting markets are underestimating the Uruguayans a touch with the best odds on Uruguay implying a 29% chance vs the 38% predicted by Castrol. I think it would be prudent to hedge bets again and back Uruguay with the +0.75 handicap at 1.94 with various bookies for 0.5 points and cover the Germany dominance with a bet on Germany to score over 1.75 goals (over 1.5 and over 2.0 goals) at 2.01 for 0.5 pt which is the dominant over/ under team goal line at Pinnacle sports.

The Final

1. Holland vs Spain

Holland: 43% Chance -> Value odds: 2.32-> Best odds 2.60
Spain: 57% Chance -> Value odds: 1.75 -> Best odds 1.57

Spain to win says Castrol, but they make it a much closer match than the bookies odds at the moment. Not a huge amount of juice in the 2.60 price though with those odds implying a 38.5% chance vs Castrol’s 43% chance.

The Double chance on Holland (the +0.5 handicap) pays 1.80 with 12 bet and the Draw No Bet is 2.63 with Bet Chronicle.

Holland to Win at 2.60 with Centre bet is the value bet for the final, but I’m not betting on this personally. Quite tempted by Holland to score over o.5 and 1 goals (over 0.75 goals) with Pinnacle though.

Castrol ratings for the final & playoff

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

Here’s the update on the results of recent matches:

1. Uruguay vs Holland: 0.5 pt Uruguay +0.75 handicap & 0.5 pt Holland to score over 1.5 goals. +0.265
2. Spain vs Germany: Spain to qualify @ 1.89. +0.89

Castrol was absolutely spot on with the Spain game. The ratings picked out that Spain had the better players which out ranked Germany’s recent form. This match was a real test for the ratings and it came up trumps.

Running total: +11.23 points from 30 points staked.

The Castrol ratings for the semi final matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet. The ratings are for the match result including over time and penalties not 90 mins.

Green means value. Red means no value. Chances & odds based on ‘to qualify’ i.e. including O/T & penalties

Third/ Fourth Place Play Off.

1. Uruguay vs Germany

Uruguay: 38% Chance -> Value odds: 2.63 -> Best odds 3.4
Germany: 62% Chance -> Value odds: 1.61-> Best odds 1.4

The Germans should win this, but the betting markets are underestimating the Uruguayans a touch with the best odds on Uruguay implying a 29% chance vs the 38% predicted by Castrol. I think it would be prudent to hedge bets again and back Uruguay with the +0.75 handicap at 1.94 with various bookies for 0.5 points and cover the Germany dominance with a bet on Germany to score over 1.75 goals (over 1.5 and over 2.0 goals) at 2.01 for 0.5 pt which is the dominant over/ under team goal line at Pinnacle sports.

The Final

1. Holland vs Spain

Holland: 43% Chance -> Value odds: 2.32-> Best odds 2.60
Spain: 57% Chance -> Value odds: 1.75 -> Best odds 1.57

Spain to win says Castrol, but they make it a much closer match than the bookies odds at the moment. Not a huge amount of juice in the 2.60 price though with those odds implying a 38.5% chance vs Castrol’s 43% chance.

The Double chance on Holland (the +0.5 handicap) pays 1.80 with 12 bet and the Draw No Bet is 2.63 with Bet Chronicle.

Holland to Win at 2.60 with Centre bet is the value bet for the final, but I’m not betting on this personally. Quite tempted by Holland to score over o.5 and 1 goals (over 0.75 goals) with Pinnacle though.

Sumo Wresting & Betting

When browsing the BBC website earlier today, along with the top story that Paul the pyschic octopus has predicted that Spain will beat Germany, I noticed an intriguing report on a new betting scandal in Japanese Sumo Wrestling.

It appears that a number of wrestlers and trainers have admitted to illegal betting on baseball and other sports, which is kicking up quite a storm. This is because Sumo Wresting is a highly respected sport in Japan with certain standards expected of competitors. Illegal betting and subsequent links with Japanese gangsters is not what the followers of this sport expect.  I imagine it to be the equivalent of hearing about a Croquet or Crown Green Bowling drugs scandal!

Betting controversy and Sumo Wrestling is not new though and anyone who read the fascinating analysis on this sport as undertaken by the authors of cult book ‘Freakonomics’ will testify. In the book through data mining they were able to demonstrate what they believe to be the existence of cheating among sumo wrestlers. Allow me to quote from Wikipedia…

“In a sumo tournament, all wrestlers in the top division compete in 15 matches and face demotion if they do not win at least eight of them. The sumo community is very close-knit, and the wrestlers at the top levels tend to know each other well. The authors looked at the final match, and considered the case of a wrestler with seven wins, seven losses, and one fight to go, fighting against an 8-6 wrestler. Statistically, the 7-7 wrestler should have a slightly below even chance, since the 8-6 wrestler is slightly better.

However, the 7-7 wrestler actually wins around 80% of the time. Levitt uses this statistic and other data gleaned from sumo wrestling matches, along with the effect that allegations of corruption have on match results, to conclude that those who already have 8 wins collude with those who are 7-7 and let them win, since they have already secured their position for the following tournament.”

Therefore be warned, any of you contemplating a bet on Sumo Wrestling anytime in the near future!

Sumo Wresting & Betting

When browsing the BBC website earlier today, along with the top story that Paul the pyschic octopus has predicted that Spain will beat Germany, I noticed an intriguing report on a new betting scandal in Japanese Sumo Wrestling.

It appears that a number of wrestlers and trainers have admitted to illegal betting on baseball and other sports, which is kicking up quite a storm. This is because Sumo Wresting is a highly respected sport in Japan with certain standards expected of competitors. Illegal betting and subsequent links with Japanese gangsters is not what the followers of this sport expect.  I imagine it to be the equivalent of hearing about a Croquet or Crown Green Bowling drugs scandal!

Betting controversy and Sumo Wrestling is not new though and anyone who read the fascinating analysis on this sport as undertaken by the authors of cult book ‘Freakonomics’ will testify. In the book through data mining they were able to demonstrate what they believe to be the existence of cheating among sumo wrestlers. Allow me to quote from Wikipedia…

“In a sumo tournament, all wrestlers in the top division compete in 15 matches and face demotion if they do not win at least eight of them. The sumo community is very close-knit, and the wrestlers at the top levels tend to know each other well. The authors looked at the final match, and considered the case of a wrestler with seven wins, seven losses, and one fight to go, fighting against an 8-6 wrestler. Statistically, the 7-7 wrestler should have a slightly below even chance, since the 8-6 wrestler is slightly better.

However, the 7-7 wrestler actually wins around 80% of the time. Levitt uses this statistic and other data gleaned from sumo wrestling matches, along with the effect that allegations of corruption have on match results, to conclude that those who already have 8 wins collude with those who are 7-7 and let them win, since they have already secured their position for the following tournament.”

Therefore be warned, any of you contemplating a bet on Sumo Wrestling anytime in the near future!

Castrol Ratings for the Semi Final

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

Here’s the update on the results of recent matches:

1. Argentina vs Germany. Germany Draw No Bet @ 2.37 Bet Chronicle. +1.37.
2. Paraguay vs Spain: Paraguay +1 @ 2.03. Refund.

Excellent value calls on Germany and Paraguay inferred by the Castrol ratings.

Running total: +10.07 points from 28 points staked.

The Castrol ratings for the semi final matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet. The ratings are for the match result including over time and penalties not 90 mins.

Green means value. Red means no value. Chances & odds based on ‘to qualify’ i.e. including O/T & penalties

1. Uruguay vs Holland 

Uruguay: 35% Chance -> Value odds: 2.86-> Best odds 3.9 Pinnacle Sports
Holland: 65% Chance -> Value odds: 1.54-> Best odds 1.31 Bet Chronicle.

Holland should win this according to Castrol, but according to the ratings, the bookies are over estimating the Dutch and underestimating the Uruguayans. Although there’s value in it, I don’t fancy Uruguay to qualify. The +0.75 handicap pays 2.06. which is more likely over 90 minutes. I’m going to put half a point on that and cover a Holland walkover by backing Holland to score over 1.5 goals @ 2.03 with Pinnacle Sports for the other half point.

2. Spain vs Germany

Spain: 60% Chance -> Value odds: 1.67-> Best odds 1.89 Bet Chronicle.
Germany: 40% Chance -> Value odds: 2.5-> Best odds 2.04 188 bet.

I was quite surprised when I saw the ratings for this match, although four out of the top rated players are Spanish. The value bet is on Spain at 1.89 with Bet Chronicle. This will certainly be a good test for the ratings. The Germans have the better form, but according to the ratings, the Spanish have the better players. Should be a fascinating match.