Month: November 2016

Long term, long term, long term.

Back in 1996 Tony Blair set out his government’s priorities at that year’s Labour Party conference: “Ask me my three main priorities for government, and I will tell you: education, education, education”.

Well, if you ask me what my priorities are when I’m planning my betting, and I will tell you: long term, long term, long term.

It’s boring, I know.  And I can guarantee too that when things get a bit tough, as they surely will at fairly regular intervals, you will be thinking sod the long term, what about the here and now?

However, before you set out on your mission to bet profitably, you simply must set realistic ambitions and give yourself plenty of time to achieve them.  If you try to take shortcuts in an effort to speed things up, you will be punished.  Slow and steady really does win this particular race, and putting yourself under pressure by trying to ramp things up too quickly is a strategy bound to end in tears.

Patience is essential, and if you’re starting small, building returns gradually as you should with any financial investment, there will inevitably be times when you feel that you’re failing to make any progress.  Your returns will look modest to you, and if you’re not fortunate enough to start making a profit instantly, you will need to remain focused on…yes, you guessed it…the long term.

To bet successfully, there are certain traits that you must demonstrate: patience is, as far as I am concerned, at the top of the list.  If you can demonstrate patience, and then add solid contributions of being realistic in the expectations you set and an understanding that this is no get-rich-quick scheme, then you’re loading the dice in your favour.

Patience, patience, patience.  Long term, long term, long term – as one former Prime Minister might say were he an experienced bettor.

 

Betting from Saturday 19th November to Friday 25th November

A very good week of betting for the portfolio, primarily down to the strong performance of a couple of football betting services I follow.  Last Saturday in particular was an extremely good day, and in fact the other six days between them only added a sliver of profit.

Of the twelve service that proffered bets, seven were profitable.  Of the five that made a loss, three of them barely ended in the red, so losses were controlled.  An overall ROI on the week of 25.44% is the happy result.

Chasemaster: Staked 6pts, +4.25pts.

Jason James: Staked 26.5pts, -8.5pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 12.25pts, +3.902pts.

Racing Service A: Staked 1.875pts, -0.25pts.

Racing Service B: Staked 18pts, -1.75pts.

Morning Value Service (Lite): Staked 11pts, -0.75pts.

Morning Value Service (Doubles): Staked 6pts, -6pts.

Combo Racing System: Staked 4pts, +2.25pts.

Football Service A: Staked 15.6pts, +7.736pts.

Football Service B: Staked 11pts, +8.49pts.

Football Service C: Staked 16pts, +5.67pts.

Pinpoint Golf: Staked 48pts, +1.95pts.

Why betting *CAN* be such a good investment: Part II

Well, last week’s post got one or two social media tongues wagging!

For anyone not following @SBCinfo on Twitter (and if not, why not!?!) my post on why betting is such a good investment was criticized, albeit mildly, by a pre-eminent author of various books on the subject of betting and tipsters.  One such, How To Spot a Black Cat in a Coal Cellar is something of a classic and well worth a read.

Anyway, the author of these books believes my post to be a little misleading, stating that it is very difficult to make a long-term profit via gambling but that my post made it appear that profits from betting is easy money.  All I can say is that wasn’t my intention.  First, I acknowledge that the skill and ability to build and maintain an ongoing edge over the bookies by a tipster is a task beyond all but a few very talented individuals.  And second, following tipsters profitably takes a great deal of self-discipline, mental fortitude, and proper planning and organisation.  The point of last week’s post was to show how, when executed properly, betting can be a great investment and the reasons why…a subject I wish to continue discussing this week.  But to make sure that we’re all on the same page, I’ve subtly but importantly altered the title of this post and emphasised the word “can”!

So last week we saw that betting profits are tax free – to residents of the UK at least – and that we are very much in control of our own funds.  The rate of return can outshadow many other forms of investment with the potential to generate a strong Return On Capital by being able to turn over a bank of funds quickly and repetitively, and that a betting “operation” can be grown whilst not increasing exposure to risk.  Of course, all of these points have caveats attached, in that each process involved in generating a long-term profit has to be executed in an appropriate manner.

There are other advantages too.

One is a direct consequence of the  last point made above.  Because it is easy to reinvest any profits made from betting, which in turn means growth is possible without increasing risk, you can start betting with a small initial investment.  In fact, I would strongly recommend starting small.  If you were learning to swim, you wouldn’t start by attempting to cross the Channel, would you?  And the reason for that is that if you did, you’d drown!

Well, when it comes to investing money in betting then it is best to exercise caution, especially when setting out.  That way any mistakes you make as you embark upon a steep learning curve don’t cost you too much.  A constant and continuing  theme that you’ll see as we go along with this blog is of exercising caution.  I am risk averse, and I feel strongly that anyone involved in betting as a means of investment should be too.

Finally, the return for the time invested can be excellent.  Sure, running a large portfolio of tipsters can become time consuming, especially as there is obviously a lot of records to be kept, but ultimately, the possible returns in comparison to the time needed for the work involved is excellent.

And after all of these reasons why betting CAN be such a good investment, I need to report on a very poor week’s betting!

Only one service excelled (Football Tipster A) who enjoyed a strong weekend, and Racing Tipster A coughed up a 25/1 winner last Saturday which ensured a profitable week overall, but after that it was a story of doom and gloom…

Jason James: Staked 19pts, -4pts.

Morning Value Service (Doubles): Staked 3pts, -3pts.

Morning Value Service (Lite): Staked 6pts, -6pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 16.5pts, -3.23pts.

Racing Tipster A: Staked 2.75pts, +1.5pts.

Racing Tipster B: Staked 18.5pts, -14.6pts.

Combo Racing System: Staked 3pts, -3pts.

Football Tipster A: Staked 6.5pts, +5.544pts.

Football Tipster B: Staked 3pts, -0.89pts.

Football Tipster C: Staked 8pts, -5.48pts.

Pinpoint Golf: Staked 60.5pts, +13.59pts.

 

 

Why betting is such a good investment*: Part I

*If done properly!

Betting is a great way of investing money, but that short sentence above in italics is an extremely important proviso.  I don’t personally know of a better investment vehicle than betting but only if executed properly, in a way that minimises risk and maximises potential returns.

Sure, betting carries risk.  But then so does any “investment”.  I guess sticking your hard earned in the bank or building society will absolutely minimise the risk that your funds are exposed to, but even then, as the collapse of the banking system during the Credit Crunch of 2007-08 showed, your money is never 100% secure.  More to the point, by setting up a sensible and well thought out betting operation, not only can you reduce your risk profile, but you also remain in complete control of your money.  As soon as you invest in investment funds such as ISAs or higher risk hedge funds, property, bonds, precious metals, vintage wines or anything else that has the potential to provide a return, you become exposed to the will of other people (Fund Managers) or market forces.  What’s more, in areas such as property, you may find it difficult to withdraw your funds from your investment with any haste and can easily find your capital tied up.  Not so with betting.

Let me make 100% clear, I am NOT recommending you ignore all these other investment vehicles completely and instead plough every spare penny into forming a betting bank.  No.  As we will come to see with setting up a well balanced portfolio of tipsters to follow, diversification is key.  Spreading your risk and investments is vitally important.  But that doesn’t mean you can’t have a favourite mode of investment, does it?

So let’s begin to look at why betting is my favourite way of investing money (but not my only one!)…

Well, we’ve already mentioned the fact that I am in control of my betting, and my funds aren’t at the disposal of someone I don’t know and never will.

I guess the biggest benefit is that the potential returns are so good.  For a strong, well-balanced portfolio of tipsters, returns should see annual bank growth of somewhere between 60 and 120%.  What other investment can comfortably double your money in the space of a year?  So £1,000 in a betting bank can easily become £2,000 in twelve months (some achieve far greater annual returns than this), whereas £1,000 stuck in a savings account offering a 5% interest rate will become £1,050.  Some difference, eh?

What I would say is that your realistically annual returns do depend on certain circumstances and not just on the performance of the tipsters you follow.  This is worth bearing in mind as you set up your operation – set it up properly and carefully; plan for the future whilst acting in the present.  Your returns will be greater all the time you have access to Best Odds Guaranteed concessions on your bookmaker accounts, access to a large number of bookmaker accounts that are unrestricted, etc.  So it’s worth right from the very start, setting yourself up in such a way that you maximise the lifespan of these accounts (which is something we’ll explore in this blog a little further down the line).

Another advantage betting has over other forms of investment, in the UK anyway, is that all returns are tax exempt.  As your betting operation grows, this can be a huge positive, worth £ooos a year.  And that brings in yet another positive – it is so easy to reinvest your money as you make a profit.  The process of reinvestment is rapid – stakes can be raised literally overnight – and this cumulative snowball effect can be used to your advantage, making a higher bottom line profit whilst keeping your exposure to risk exactly as it has always been.

And finally for now, it’s worth bearing in mind that you don’t need years of experience to form a strong, high performing betting portfolio.  Sure, you need to demonstrate certain skills and you need to train yourself to become a good bettor, but you don’t need a university degree or vocational qualifications.  What’s more, you can get ample help and guidance from the Secret Betting Club! 🙂

Believe it or not, there are plenty of other reasons why betting is a great way of investing money.  I’ll go into these in my next post.

 

November’s betting to date

Of course, after extolling the virtues of betting, I now have to report on a losing start to November!  Typical!

The overall situation isn’t so bad, and the last few days’ betting have been much improved on what came before, so hopefully we’re about to enter a good period.

The SBC’s Jason James service is the top performer in November to date, and another strong week means that the ROI for the month is running at a staggering (and unsustainable) 64.4%!  Other than that though, strong performers are not so much a little thin on the ground as non-existent!

Northern Monkey has had a horror month so far, down -65.7% ROI, but form is temporary, class permanent and all that.  All in all, of 12 services in the portfolio, only five are in profit, and two of those only marginally so.

Here are the figures:

Chasemaster: Staked 8pts, -4.25pts.

Jason James: Staked 30.5pts, +19.65pts.

Morning Value Service (Doubles): Staked 14pts, -11pts.

Morning Value Service (Lite): Staked 22pts, -1.5pts.

Northern Monkey: Staked 19.5pts, -12.825pts

Racing Service A: Staked 4.75pts, +1pt.

Racing Service B: Staked 29.5pts, -6.1pts.

Combo Horse Racing System: Staked 3pts, +1pt.

Football Service A: Staked 2pts, +2.28pts.

Football Service B: Staked 3pts, +0.1pt.

Football Service C: Staked 4pts, -2.5pts.

Pinpoint Golf: Staked 43.25pts, -5.84pts.

Until next week…

October Review

At the end of each month I print up a review of that month’s betting and update the figures.  After a very strong September, October proved to be a tough month…

Of course not every month will run smoothly.  That’s a fact we have to face up to.  No matter how well balanced and diversified our portfolio, there will always be spells that are disappointing.

I’ve seen it written many times that October is a really tricky month for the nags.  As the flat season winds down and the jumps season cranks up, a combination of changing ground conditions, flat horses “over the top” for the season, and the jumper’s fitness an unknown quantity, it certainly sounds a combination that would make any sane bettor hang up their betting boots for a few weeks and go off somewhere sunny instead.  Which is all well and good, but in fact when I look at my figures, I see that the racing tipsters actually scraped together a small profit, and it was the sports services that did the damage.

Only Northern Monkey excelled, generating an ROI of 14.84%, although a nod to Jason James too, with an ROI of 10.91% for the month.  However, the most significant performances, in a negative way, were those of the Football Service B (ROI -28.17%), Pinpoint Golf (ROI -24.41%), and Morning Value Service (Doubles) (ROI -50.74%).

Those Morning Value Service (Doubles) figures look particularly gloomy, but we need to remember that the stakes on these bets are relatively very small, so in cash terms, not that much damage was done.

My biggest worry actually surrounds Football Service C, as I’m not currently getting the odds on the bets that I need to.  I need to think about this for otherwise, the profit margin will be eroded and that’s no good.  I need to think about this and how I can improve things here.

Overall, the month’s ROI was -8.66%, the ROC -3.97%, with only two of the 11 services that provided bets turning a profit.

Here are the figures:

Northern Monkey: Staked 64.85pts, +9.629pts.

Chasemaster: Staked 26.5pts, -0.075pts.

Jason James: Staked 118.5pts, +12.94pts.

Horse Racing Service B: Staked 130pts, -8.95pts.

Morning Value Service (Lite): Staked 53pts, -6.375pts.

Morning Value Service (Doubles): Staked 33pts, -17pts.

Racing Combo System: Staked 8pts, n/a

Football Service A: Staked 61.1pts, -6.087pts.

Football Service B: Staked 28pts, -7.89pts.

Football Service C: Staked 53pts, -8pts.

Pinpoint Golf: Staked 215.25pts, -52.545pts.