AI Football Tips

 

AI Football Tips

A Unique New Football Tipster – Exclusive to The Smart Betting Club!

Edges in sports betting are hard to find.

Maintaining and profiting from them over the long-term is even harder.

How do you know when you have lost your edge?

How long do you give a strategy that has served you well if its performance appears to be waning?

These questions can drive any bettor to despair but a new generation of tipping services are coming up with answers.

Artificial Intelligence takes the guess work out of things as hundreds of metrics are used to arrive at value selections.

This is exactly what you get with AI Football Tips – a statistics-driven tipping service from Predictology that has built an enviable record of results backing singles and doubles in the global 1×2 football markets and an exclusive service we are proud to now offer via a special deal through the Smart Betting Club.

With a 5.54% ROI made over the first 1,459 bets of proofing and all at achievable odds, it’s a service we expect to be much in demand!

Click here to subscribe now or read on for more information on AI Football Tips’ approach and record.

In Their Own Words: AI Football’s Methodology & Expertise

AI Football is a tipster service that advises single and double bets to be backed in the 1X2 market. They quote fair odds available in the betting market, based on average bookmaker prices (with positive outliers removed).

To learn more on the methods behind AI Football bet selection, we asked Jon, the man behind Predictology, to explain more:

“We use cutting edge machine learning techniques and statistical models to analyse our internal database of over 400,000 matches to predict outcomes and determine the true probability of each team and match.

It looks at 100s of metrics including league and team strength, form, player influences, market noise and many others, overlaying these with mathematical distribution models to generate ratings and probabilities for each team and match.

We then analyse the live market odds across our portfolio of 35+ bookmakers and compare the odds available against our probabilities to determine which matches are presenting value. In other words, the odds available are higher than what we have determined to be the true probability of the team winning.

Lastly, we further overlay our key performance indicators which compares the match characteristics and ratings against our historical database, looking at similar teams, odds points, and value probabilities to allow us to ‘cherry pick’ the matches with the highest probability of delivering a positive return and the highest realistic, and consistent, win rate. (E.g. the frequency of winning bets you will receive).

We then advise those bets whereby our model suspects them to be value as AI Football Tips. These are both advised as singles and double bets.”

Doubling Up For Greater Profit

As well as advising bets as singles, by combining the right value bets into doubles, AI Football also is able to further maximise profits. Here is what Jon said on this front:

“When opportunities are available, and to maximise our returns, we additionally look to leverage our value and returns by carefully selecting match pairings to be used in double bets (Bet A x Bet B).

We choose only two teams to include in our double bet as our internal modelling has proven this to be the most effective and consistent way to increase our profits.

Acca bets are generally poor value, hence why they are so widely publicised by the bookmakers. However, there are occasions where you can use multiple bets, especially doubles, to turn this on its head and make the positive value sit with you, the bettor.

First, an example of a traditional (poor value) acca bet. You take 4 selections, which when including the bookmakers overround are 96% value (e.g. negative 4%)

0.96 x 0.96 x 0.96 x 0.996 = 0.849 or 84.9%

You have multiplied the ‘poor value’ and are now giving over 15% to the bookies in value.”

Turning This Strategy Around

”What we are doing with our “Value Doubles” is turning this strategy around and putting it in our favour. Let’s say our value is 5% on two matches. So we have determined that the price on offer, even after the bookies overround, is 5% better than the true probability for each game.

1.05 x 1.05 = 1.1025 or 110.25%

We’ve now turned our 5% value into more than 10% on a simple double bet.

Why only two bets and not more?

Put simply, the more selections we add into an accumulator type bet, the more chance, on any given day, that one selection will let us down. It stands to reason, the more complex we make a bet, the harder it becomes to be successful, in isolation at least.

Yes, the value multiplier increases with each additional selection. However, our focus with AI Football Bets is on generating the highest possible win rates (frequency of profitable bets) while generating significant and consistent profits.

Our modelling has determined that two bets, as doubles, (and we may have multiple doubles on any given day), is the optimal frequency to deliver on our objectives – consistency and profit.”

In Numbers: AI Football Tip’s Results

This methodology is working. Since April 2022, AI Football tips have put 1,459 global football selections forward from across the 1×2 markets in the form of both singles and doubles, with the following headline results:

As you can see, the service has relatively consistent ROIs . A steady stream of profits contributed to an overall Return On Investment of 5.54%, which is exceptional considering the competitiveness of these markets and the traditional yardsticks for returns from football tipping services.

These returns are roughly in line with the in-house calculations at Predictology, where they have identified a 7.5% average expected value across their selections to date.

You can of course explore all results from AI Football via this regularly updated spreadsheet.

Singles & Doubles – Does It Work?

The quality of the service’s selection process is also vindicated by the data from the table below that shows how ‘doubling up’ some value propositions enhances returns further (just as Jon said it does in his explanation of the methodology above).

Single bets account for a considerable majority of AI Football Tips’ selections, with a solid 71% strike rate ensuring that average odds of around 1.5 (1/2 in fractional odds) result in a profit and a 6.00% ROI.

‘Doubling up’ certain pairs of selections pushes their average price up to 2.14, and considering that this is ‘odds against’, a 54.05% strike rate means that this has derived even more profits, despite having slightly more variance in the dataset.

What we can see here is a good blend of solid, steady single bets that have low variance and consistent returns. A 54.05% strike rate is by no means a ‘long-shot’ element of the service, but the doubles, that make up just under 20% of the bets, account for a considerable share of the profits, complementing the other 80% and driving the ROI towards 10%.

Capital Growth With Compounding Stakes

A high strike rate and impressive monthly Returns On Investment (ROI) lend AI Football Tips to being an excellent service to drive capital growth.

The table below demonstrates how staking 2.5% of a betting bank on each selection can drive profits further through the use of compounding.

All of these figures are based on a 100 point bank, the SBC’s recommendation for AI Football Tips.

As you can see, compounding profits in a growing betting bank resulted in outstanding Return On Capital , with a 100 point bank producing 345.179 points of profit, representing a colossal 345.18% ROC in just over eighteen months. This compares favourably with flat level staking, which ‘only’ returned 80.83% over the same period.

A full bet-by-bet record of AI Football’s selections with ‘2.5% of bank’ staking is available in this regularly updated spreadsheet.

The Record Pre-April 2022

The original model for AI Football Tips was developed by Jon through his Predictology platform in 2017 using historical data, system testing and analysis models to refine it. Prior to this, Jon used similar modelling to bet on the global 1×2 markets. The record of the bets from August 2015 to April 2022 (prior to the service’s current iteration) had the following ‘headline’ results*:

  • 1,012 bets were placed
  • Selections had an average price of 1.56
  • These bets had a strike rate of 71.64%
  • Level (1pt) staking produced a profit of 117.88pts
  • This represented a Return On Investment (ROI) of 11.65%

*All of these bets can be verified in the Predictology database; a full bet-by bet record of the ‘pre-April 2022’ period is available here

As the technology and the algorithm capabilities improved, Jon was able to expand the selection frequency and develop strong value assessments into the model, culminating in the primary results shared for AI Football Tips. These bets have continued to be live bet by Jon since early 2022.

Explore Results

You can explore all of the historical results from AI Football via this regularly updated spreadsheet.

The sheet outlines:

  • Level Stakes Performance – April 2022 To Present Day
  • 2.5% Staking Performance – April 2022 To Present Day
  • Full record of performance from those bets logged prior to April 2022 (see above section noted ‘The Record Pre-April 2022’ for more)
  • All results 2015 to 2023
  • Monthly Summary results sheets

Where To Place These Bets

All of the figures above are based on average bookmaker prices (with positive outliers removed), providing a realistic return for any follower using bookmaker accounts. The bookmakers used most frequently for these averages are as follows:

  • bwin*
  • SportingBet*
  • BetCRIS
  • NordicBet
  • William Hill*
  • Betsson*
  • Tipico
  • Marathon Bet*
  • 1xbet
  • Pinnacle
  • SBO Bet
  • Bet365*
  • Dafabet*
  • Betway*
  • Unibet*
  • 888Sport*
  • 10bet*
  • Comeon*
  • 188Bet

*available to use in the UK

Our experience of using both independent bookmakers and other major bookmakers suggests that football odds are generally quite consistent across many firms and using sites like Oddschecker or Oddsportal can help to increase returns further by shopping for the best price. In opposition to markets like horse racing, football markets (especially 1×2) are hosted on most platforms.

Signing up to as many bookmaker sites as possible should maximise returns and reduce the chances of restrictions if bets are spread around sensibly.

Exchanges

Despite not having any comparative data for this period, Jon has been using Betfair and other exchanges to place some of these bets when prices are better than what is available with the bookmakers.

Even with deductions for commission, odds are generally competitive and the service can be used profitably on these platforms.

Service Nuts & Bolts

About: AI Football Tips uses a 400,000 game database, machine learning and a value strategy to identify both single and double bets for placement.

Bet Timing: Bets are released at around 8am GMT each day, usually earlier. They are typically finished and ready by 5am UK time but this gives a little latitude in case of the odd delay.

Bet Type: Singles and doubles on 1×2 football markets from a range of global markets.

Bookmakers: AI Football Tips’ results above are based on average bookmaker prices. These figures have been tested using bookmaker ‘fair odds’, taking the average price across around 35 bookmakers (and always avoiding stand outs or stale prices). It is very rare that followers can not get (or beat) the quoted prices by using a wide range of bookmakers. Pinnacle price recording is a plan for the service moving forward.

Number Of Bets: Around 2-4 bets per day can be expected with a full calendar of global football matches but this can drop slightly if there are less games (or value bets) available. It is naturally busier on a weekend, when many football fixtures take place.

Staking: 2.5% of any betting bank as a stake is advised for each single or double bet.

Betting Bank: We advocate a 100 point starting bank for this service.

Subscribe To AI Football Tips

The only place you can now subscribe to the AI Football Tips service is via the Smart Betting Club.

Simply choose your membership option and then click this link to subscribe

Please note – this link takes you to the Predictology payment system, who are processing all orders for AI Football. Once your order has been placed, we will add you into the service mailing list to get all the AI Football Tips.

1 Months Recurring* Membership @ £30 per month
Click here to sign-up

6 Months Recurring* Membership @ £150 per 6 months
Equates to just £25 per month
Click here to sign-up

12 Months Recurring* Membership @ £275 per year
Best value & recommended option = Equates to just £22.91 per month
Click here to sign-up

*Please note that all membership payments are taken on an automatic recurring basis. You can cancel the recurring payments at anytime or simply ask us to do this on your behalf at any point.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

8 Expert Football Betting Tips

It’s been a long hard summer for us football fans, with good betting opportunities few and far between, yet finally the beautiful game returns in full this Saturday with the start of the English Premier League.

Before you place any bets this weekend, I wanted to share with you our 8 Top Football Betting Tips (as put forward by a variety of punting experts) to help you bash the bookies.

Each tip has been compiled based on the advice supplied by the football experts interviewed in our recently released 2013/14 Season Football Tipster Guide.

1) Don’t Bet On What’s Popular

Doing what everyone else is doing can often be a pointless exercise and some would go as far as suggesting that you can’t make money in the long run backing “popular” bets. It might be psychologically re-assuring to read lots of people agreeing with a bet you fancy, but in reality the fact that lots of people want to back something means you are unlikely to be getting a value price.

There’s a reason most bookies list their top 10 most popular bets on their homepage. Be your own person, learn to truly ignore what everyone else is saying and don’t be afraid to go as far against the grain as you find comfortable to go. Continue reading

Fink Tank Value System Update: Big Winners landed

It’s been an interesting festive period to say the least with the big teams  appearing to join Wayne Rooney in focusing more on the festive cheer than their hard working opponents.

Most of the top teams were over turned in the festive/ new year period with last night’s Man U defeat the icing on the cake. It’s been a bad period for Alex Ferguson, but the Fink Tank value system has had a cracking time. Here are some of the bets it picked out recently:

  • Villa to beat Chelsea away at 14.8.
  • Blackburn to beat Man U away at 21.0
  • Sunderland to beat Man City at home at 7.0
  • Fulham to beat Arsenal at 4.33
  • Bolton to beat Everton away at 7.5
  • Newcastle to beat Man U at home at 5.5

Continue reading

Premier League Fink Tank Value Betting Results Update

This season in the Premier League, we have been using the free Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings to help us spot value bets.

We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using the same value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings give a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

We’ve been tracking all the qualifiers this season for our members on our forum [membership required]. First here’s a recap on last season’s results. Continue reading

Champions League Value Bets: Value In the Gunners At Marseille

Value bets for the group stages:

Using the Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings we can also hunt out some value bets the upcoming group stage matches. We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using a value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings imply a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

Here’s what the ratings threw up in the last round of Champions League games. 

Results so far: 
Results have not been good so far with the last round of matches being a virtual wipe out. Most of the bets have been 4.57 so the ratings are clearly finding more value in the underdog so far. The trouble is that the underdog is yet to properly bite. Continue reading

Will boring Villa scupper Man City’s hot streak?

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab Black software help analyse some of the current winning and losing streaks of teams in the English Premier League to identify what might happen next.

Man City are flying, having won eight home games on the bounce, but can they keep it up?

To simplify the analysis, the streaks primarily refer to each team playing at home or away respectively going back to 2006. E.g. We’re only looking at the home winning/ losing streaks not their home and way performance.

Man City (8 home wins) vs Aston Villa (3 away draws)

  • Man City have won eight home games on the bounce just once before, winning the next game against Bolton 4-2.
  • In the history of the Premier League since 2006, there have been 12 instances of teams winning 8 home games on the bounce. The hot team won their next home game 75% of the time, making a small profit of 0.4 points. The last team to do this was Manchester United who happened to beat Villa in their next game.
  • Villa have drawn three away games on the bounce just twice before, drawing once and losing the other time.
  • Since 2006 there have been 23 instances of teams drawing three consecutive away games. Backing the away team is unsurprisingly a bad option, with the draw masters winning the next game just 13% of the time and losing 48% of the time. Backing another draw isn’t a bad shout though, it happened 39% of the time returning a profit of 9.9 points.

Wigan (DWDWL from last 5 home) vs Bolton (3 points from last 5 games)

  • Bolton are rooted at the foot of the table having secured just one win this season. They been in a situation of having scored between 2-4 points from 5 away games 40 times before. The odds of a turnaround tomorrow aren’t great with Bolton losing their next away game 70% of the time.
  • Backing Bolton to lose the next away game would have actually returned a profit of +8.7 points from 40 games.
  • Historically since 2006, any Premier League team with just 2-4 points from their last 5 games has won the next match just 21% of the time and losing 53% of the time.
  • It’s not impossible that Bolton will turn it around tomorrow, but the odds are against it.

Pick up a Smart Betting Club membership to access all this and more.

 

Will boring Villa scupper Man City's hot streak?

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab Black software help analyse some of the current winning and losing streaks of teams in the English Premier League to identify what might happen next.

Man City are flying, having won eight home games on the bounce, but can they keep it up?

To simplify the analysis, the streaks primarily refer to each team playing at home or away respectively going back to 2006. E.g. We’re only looking at the home winning/ losing streaks not their home and way performance.

Man City (8 home wins) vs Aston Villa (3 away draws)

  • Man City have won eight home games on the bounce just once before, winning the next game against Bolton 4-2.
  • In the history of the Premier League since 2006, there have been 12 instances of teams winning 8 home games on the bounce. The hot team won their next home game 75% of the time, making a small profit of 0.4 points. The last team to do this was Manchester United who happened to beat Villa in their next game.
  • Villa have drawn three away games on the bounce just twice before, drawing once and losing the other time.
  • Since 2006 there have been 23 instances of teams drawing three consecutive away games. Backing the away team is unsurprisingly a bad option, with the draw masters winning the next game just 13% of the time and losing 48% of the time. Backing another draw isn’t a bad shout though, it happened 39% of the time returning a profit of 9.9 points.

Wigan (DWDWL from last 5 home) vs Bolton (3 points from last 5 games)

  • Bolton are rooted at the foot of the table having secured just one win this season. They been in a situation of having scored between 2-4 points from 5 away games 40 times before. The odds of a turnaround tomorrow aren’t great with Bolton losing their next away game 70% of the time.
  • Backing Bolton to lose the next away game would have actually returned a profit of +8.7 points from 40 games.
  • Historically since 2006, any Premier League team with just 2-4 points from their last 5 games has won the next match just 21% of the time and losing 53% of the time.
  • It’s not impossible that Bolton will turn it around tomorrow, but the odds are against it.

Pick up a Smart Betting Club membership to access all this and more.

 

Euro 2012 Castrol Ratings: Ireland to Edge Armenia

For the few months, we’ve been testing Euro 2012 value bets according to Castrol’s ratings as well as picking out some value bets of our own. Castrol ratings are powered by the Detech, the same team behind the powerful Fink Tank Ratings. Check this link for details of how we’re using the ratings to spot value.

See the last update here.

Returns so far:

42 bets
42 points staked
-3.76 points
-8.95% ROI.

Something of a wipeout last week for the ratings if taking a value betting approach and following them blindly. Highlights were the value found in Wales and the draw in the Italy vs Serbia game. They did at least indicate that there was no value in backing England against Montenegro. Our suggested bets which use a little more discretion and handicaps to even out the game didn’t fare much better. A lot of the games went against the favourites, but there wasn’t much joy for the underdog last weekend. Continue reading

Should You Bet On Cards For A Dirty Derby?

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab Black software help us preview the big Derby games this weekend.

Many supporters see derby matches as the biggest games of the season, which are often wrought with competitiveness and intensity. Unsurprisingly, spread betting firms and bookmakers will raise their usual buy-sell prices by anything up to 20 points, but should they?

The Premier League has the lowest number of bookings per game than any of the other top divisions in Europe. Over the past eight seasons the average game has seen 3.10 yellow cards and 0.16 red cards (or 35.1 booking points). In contrast La Liga games have averaged a whopping 61.0 booking points since the start of the 2003/04 season, with 5.2 yellow and 0.35 red cards per game. Continue reading

Champions League Value Bets: Can Anyone Beat Barca?

In last year’s Champions League final, Barcelona gave Manchester United a lesson in how to play football. As good as United were, Barca were just untouchable.

As the 2011/2012 builds momentum, there is a lot of talk about how United have learned from that game at Wembley. But can they do it this time or are the Catalans just too strong?

Likely winner & value bets

To help us determine this, the guys at Dectech have calculated the % chance each team has of winning the Champions League this year. This will adjust as the season progresses, but right now, here are their predictions for the main teams and UK interests. We’ve also added the best bookie odds and whether these offer value.
Continue reading