Secret Betting Club

Your guide to making money betting

champions league value bets: Man City over priced at Villarreal

Published in Betting Thoughts, Castrol Ratings, Champions League Fink Tank, Fink Tank, Football Betting, Football Stats

Value bets for the group stages:

Using the Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings we can also hunt out some value bets the upcoming group stage matches. We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using a value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings imply a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

Here’s what the ratings threw up in the last round of Champions League games. 

Results so far: 
The ratings have flagged up lots of value in the underdogs, but so far, the ratings haven’t landed any major shocks.
Bets: 45
Profit/ loss: -17.75 points
Tuesday’s games:  
First up, here are the English team’s chances tonight according to the Dectech ratings:
  • Villarreal vs Man City: Man City 51.6% Chance. No value with City.
  • Man U vs Otelul: Man U 87.2% chance. No value with Man U.
  • Arsenal vs Marseille: Arsenal 56.1% chance. No value in Arsenal.
  • Genk vs Chelsea: Chelsea 71% chance. No value with Chelsea.
The English clubs are all likely winners but the bookies are offering no value according to the ratings. Continue reading

A Free Racing System To Make Your Profits Rise This Fall

Published in 4 Pronged Attack

Autumn time (or the ‘Fall’ as our American friends call it) is an exciting time for horse racing fans as we see the start of the jumps season proper and some high quality racing fare.

It’s also a great time for betting if you have the right expertise to guide you and to help with this, we have a racing system that has made nearly £6000 to £50 stakes in the last 6 months alone.

The great news is that you can follow it for free! Read on to find out more.

October – The Most Profitable EVER Month For Our System.

Whilst most things in Autumn are fading away, our free 4 Pronged Attack System (4PA) is hitting its straps after its best ever month in October.

From just 17 bets and 25 pts staked, the 4PA made a huge 40.29 pts profit. This is a return on investment of 161.16% – a figure unheard of in racing circles! Continue reading

Chase Racing: Why Not Every Horse Is Trying 100%!

Published in Chase Racing

Welcome to our first column from Peter Cousins and the team of chase racing experts from the Chasemaster tipster service.

For the past 3 years, Chasemaster have been making serious profits backing and laying in specialist chase races and each fortnight on the SBC Blog he will be sharing some of the secrets of his success.

Hi, Peter from Chasemaster here with the first of a hopefully fortnightly blog. Our expertise as the name suggests relates to chase racing and we’ll be looking back at a number of races, which will hopefully throw up some good priced winners.

It’s important to understand that this is not a “horses to follow” list to be blindly backed. We won’t know the circumstances of entries but we will try and indicate future required conditions to make the horse a value bet.

The headline will give you some idea of one of the methods we use and it is certainly true that not all horses are trying 100% to win each race. Let me explain why and how we can use this to good effect in the betting markets… Continue reading

Sportsman Racing: Weird Al’s Gold Cup Tilt

Published in Sportsman Racing Bulletin

In this regular Monday segment, racing expert Scott Armstrong rounds up all the action of note from this weekend’s racing for SBC Blog readers.

The injury-plagued Weird Al put his problems well and truly behind him with a monumental win in the jump season’s first big renewal – the Charlie Hall chase. Superbly piloted by Timmy Murphy Weird Al came from off the pace to quicken away from Time For Rupert after the last fence earning quotes of 20-1 for the Gold Cup next March. Owing to setbacks Weird Al has only had nine career runs at the age of eight and remains open to further progression. Long Run will prove very difficult to beat in next year’s Gold Cup but if Weird Al stays in good health then he must have a chance in the Hennessy if entered at the end of next month. Continue reading

North & South: Football Tips from Both Sides Of The Border

Published in Football Betting, Free tips

North & South is our new football column, featuring advice from North & South of Hadrian’s Wall with some of the best bets in England and Scotland.

The English expertise is provided by top flight experts Premier Football Bets whilst Scottish Football Expert and SBC Editor Greg Gordon, gives us some of his best bets from North of the border.

English Premier League

1 pt Stoke to beat Newcastle. 2.20 Pinnacle/Tote/Ladbrokes/Boylesports/Hills

Stoke are fast becoming one of my favourite teams in the Premier League. You always know what you are going to get when betting for or against Tony Pulis’s men. 
Continue reading

Are Man United more dangerous after a shock defeat?

Published in Football Betting, Football Stats, Form Lab

In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab software analyse over performing teams in major European leagues.

Manchester United didn’t just lose against Man City, they were demolished. They suffered their worst home defeat last weekend since the formation of the Premier League, and in the process drifted out to 2/1 second-favourites to be lifting the trophy in May.

A popular theory is that this makes United more dangerous to their opponents in their next game because they are looking to avenge their loss.

But is this true?

We have examined the data across Europe’s Big 5 leagues to find out if there are any trends that might point to an instant return to form for United this weekend against Everton. Continue reading

Sportsman Racing: Diamond Harry To Sparkle?

Published in Sportsman Racing Bulletin

Welcome to our latest column from Scott Armstrong of The Sportsman tipster service.

Each Friday, Scott provides us with a rundown of all the best weekend racing action – including the key  horses to follow and those to oppose. You can also find a recap from him each Monday on the SBC Blog with his reaction to the weekend’s events. Thorough, frank and not afraid to take a contrary view, Scott Armstrong is a racing man whose opinion you can’t afford to be without.

The jumps season kicks off in earnest this weekend with the Charlie Hall meeting at Wetherby. Ascot also holds a decent National Hunt card while the flat season has not quite dwindled out yet with meetings at Newmarket, Ayr and there’s racing on the polytrack at Wolverhampton.

The Charlie Hall Chase is the pivotal jumps race of the weekend and this season’s renewal is a cracker. Having been won on previous years by such luminaries as One Man, Wayward Lad, Forgive ‘N’ Forget, Barton Bank, Our Vic and See More Business this term’s contest witnesses Diamond Harry as current 11-4 favourite and he looks the one to beat. Continue reading

The Free Bets That Would Have Grown Your Bank By 116%

Published in SBC Magazine, Skeeve, Tipsters

One question we are often posed here at the Secret Betting Club refers to what type of bets a keen punter should look to focus on if he wants to be a success, especially when betting on Football.

Very often the simple answer for this is…look at the type of bets the bookmakers advertise and then go nowhere near them!

Because if you were to login to a bookies website or visit your local turf accountant shop, you would quickly notice the type of bets they advertise, which are in markets such as…

  • First goalscorer
  • Correct score
  • Refunds if a certain player scores the winner

It isn’t because bookmakers have suddenly seen the light and actually want you to win money, but more the fact they know these type of bets are very hard to call.

The bottom line is these type of bets pay for bookies to go on holiday…or more likely these days,  swell the shareholders coffers!

Therefore the next question that might fall from your lips could well be…

So what bets should you look for when football betting? Continue reading

Sportman Racing: Derby Crusade For Camelot?

Published in Horses To Follow, Sportsman Racing Bulletin

In this regular Monday segment, racing expert Scott Armstrong rounds up all the action of note from this weekend’s racing for SBC Blog readers.

It was a great day for punters on Saturday when the very well backed Camelot justified his odds-on price with a mightily impressive win in the Racing Post Trophy. Scott examines his Derby credentials, where he is now 7-2 favourite and highlights a number of other horses and trainers to note from the weekend.

Money spoke volumes in the Racing Post Trophy as the once-raced Camelot was hammered in to odds-on at the off, winning easily by two-and-a-quarter lengths and making the 10-11 SP look extremely generous. Ladbrokes famously have a line on the Aidan O’Brien stable and in the lead up to the race they went odds on with Camelot while other bookmakers were odds against. O’Brien said after the race “The boys (in the yard) were saying that Camelot’s work was so exceptional it was hard to believe. In comparison to other horses his data was incredible”. Unfortunately for punters, O’Brien was typically reticent about such news before the race itself. Continue reading

North & South: Football Tips from Both Sides Of The Border

Published in Football Betting

North & South is our new football column, featuring advice from North & South of Hadrian’s Wall with some of the best bets in England and Scotland from 2 expert sources.

The English expertise is provided by top flight experts Premier Football Bets whilst Scottish Football Expert and SBC Editor Greg Gordon, gives us some of his best bets from North of the border.

English Premier League

1 pt Arsenal -1 Asian Handicap V Stoke. 2.06 188bet/Canbet
This bet was advised early to PFB members, when the odds were 2.11

Stoke City are one of a number of Premier League mid-level teams who have a very strong home record, yet remain very poor on the road and the odds on a loss of greater than 1 goal away at Arsenal on Sunday looks to be too big.

Taking on Stoke when they are away after Europa League fixtures has already paid off twice, when we backed them to lose at Sunderland (4-0) and Swansea (2-0) as they simply don’t have the strength in depth to cope. Continue reading